The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts

If you have missed all 5 pieces in “The Playoffs are a Crapshoot” well…tough! You should’ve been reading Braves Journal more, ya twit! Nah, just joshing. Here are the links to the first 5 parts: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean

In case you missed the first 4 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 4 Last year the Braves won 97 games.  But we know that this record is partly … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality

Before we get to Jonathan F’s brilliance, Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 3, Here are Notes from Matt L: Last night, we successfully migrated BravesJournal to a new host. This officially gives Ryan and the community full access/ownership to BravesJournal and full administration permissions. Additionally, this will (and already has in most cases) enable us … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math

If you missed the first piece in “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, it provided a basic overview of what will be discussed and you can find it here. There are 10 teams that make the playoffs every year, six division winners and 4 wild card teams.  Suppose that the probability of each of them winning the … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction

It was Billy Beane in Moneyball who famously remarked, “The playoffs are a crapshoot”.  The argument goes that whatever assiduousness and craft goes into producing a winning regular season team, the outcome of the playoffs is random.  I want to use my offseason opportunity this year to explore this a little bit.  A warning up … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction”