The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts

If you have missed all 5 pieces in “The Playoffs are a Crapshoot” well…tough! You should’ve been reading Braves Journal more, ya twit! Nah, just joshing. Here are the links to the first 5 parts: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean

In case you missed the first 4 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 4 Last year the Braves won 97 games.  But we know that this record is partly … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill

In case you missed the first 3 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 In the previous installment, we estimated the Bradley-Terry rating for the playoff teams.  While these are the best estimates we can … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality

Before we get to Jonathan F’s brilliance, Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 3, Here are Notes from Matt L: Last night, we successfully migrated BravesJournal to a new host. This officially gives Ryan and the community full access/ownership to BravesJournal and full administration permissions. Additionally, this will (and already has in most cases) enable us … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math

If you missed the first piece in “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, it provided a basic overview of what will be discussed and you can find it here. There are 10 teams that make the playoffs every year, six division winners and 4 wild card teams.  Suppose that the probability of each of them winning the … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction

It was Billy Beane in Moneyball who famously remarked, “The playoffs are a crapshoot”.  The argument goes that whatever assiduousness and craft goes into producing a winning regular season team, the outcome of the playoffs is random.  I want to use my offseason opportunity this year to explore this a little bit.  A warning up … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction”

Off-Day Math Speculations: Are We Streaky?

There’s been speculation here at several points about whether the Braves 2018 edition is streaky.  The main reason we might want an answer to that question is the supposition that a streaky team will have trouble when they get into the playoffs unless they get on a long hot streak, because a single cold streak … Continue reading “Off-Day Math Speculations: Are We Streaky?”

Positional Performance At the Quarter-Pole Game Thread, May 17

With 40 games in the hopper, this seems like a convenient time to take a closer look at how the Braves’ offense is stacking up against its NL peers (all numbers through 5/15). Braves OPS by position (w/NL rank): C — 856 (T-1st with PIT) 1B — 829 (8th) 2B — 711 (7th) 3B — … Continue reading “Positional Performance At the Quarter-Pole Game Thread, May 17”

How Big Is Home Field Advantage? Part 5: Summing Up (by JonathanF)

I started this little excursion to try and figure out why baseball has such a small home field advantage. I had a theory that I could explain it through baseball’s differential travel behavior. That hypothesis failed pretty miserably. But I think I learned a fair bit nonetheless, and I’ll take a few paragraphs to sum … Continue reading “How Big Is Home Field Advantage? Part 5: Summing Up (by JonathanF)”

How Big Is Home Field Advantage? Part 4: Batting Last (by JonathanF)

Note from Alex: The previous piece in this series, Part 3, was pre-empted by rumors about the Upton trade within hours of publication. I’m linking to it here, so that you can go back and read it. I started this series proposing that baseball should have a higher home field advantage than other sports because … Continue reading “How Big Is Home Field Advantage? Part 4: Batting Last (by JonathanF)”