The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts

If you have missed all 5 pieces in “The Playoffs are a Crapshoot” well…tough! You should’ve been reading Braves Journal more, ya twit! Nah, just joshing. Here are the links to the first 5 parts: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean

In case you missed the first 4 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 4 Last year the Braves won 97 games.  But we know that this record is partly … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill

In case you missed the first 3 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 In the previous installment, we estimated the Bradley-Terry rating for the playoff teams.  While these are the best estimates we can … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality

Before we get to Jonathan F’s brilliance, Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 3, Here are Notes from Matt L: Last night, we successfully migrated BravesJournal to a new host. This officially gives Ryan and the community full access/ownership to BravesJournal and full administration permissions. Additionally, this will (and already has in most cases) enable us … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math

If you missed the first piece in “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, it provided a basic overview of what will be discussed and you can find it here. There are 10 teams that make the playoffs every year, six division winners and 4 wild card teams.  Suppose that the probability of each of them winning the … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction

It was Billy Beane in Moneyball who famously remarked, “The playoffs are a crapshoot”.  The argument goes that whatever assiduousness and craft goes into producing a winning regular season team, the outcome of the playoffs is random.  I want to use my offseason opportunity this year to explore this a little bit.  A warning up … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction”

Give Me A Break

It’s been an incredible 1st half for the Atlanta Braves. 6.5 games up in a division that, before Opening Day, was projected to be one of the tightest in baseball. The offense has been amazing, and while the defense hasn’t been what it was last season, it’s still been better than the rest of the … Continue reading “Give Me A Break”

Off Day Ruminations: The Albies Extension

As promised last week, I want to put my economist hat on for just a minute to discuss the Albies extension, in which people argue that Albies and his agent are leaving $100 million or more on the table.  There is nothing in economics that makes this impossible, but there are good reasons to think … Continue reading “Off Day Ruminations: The Albies Extension”