If you have missed all 5 pieces in “The Playoffs are a Crapshoot” well…tough! You should’ve been reading Braves Journal more, ya twit! Nah, just joshing. Here are the links to the first 5 parts: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts”
Category: Archives
Contains archives of old categories.
The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean
In case you missed the first 4 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 4 Last year the Braves won 97 games. But we know that this record is partly … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean”
The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill
In case you missed the first 3 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 In the previous installment, we estimated the Bradley-Terry rating for the playoff teams. While these are the best estimates we can … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill”
The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality
Before we get to Jonathan F’s brilliance, Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 3, Here are Notes from Matt L: Last night, we successfully migrated BravesJournal to a new host. This officially gives Ryan and the community full access/ownership to BravesJournal and full administration permissions. Additionally, this will (and already has in most cases) enable us … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality”
The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math
If you missed the first piece in “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, it provided a basic overview of what will be discussed and you can find it here. There are 10 teams that make the playoffs every year, six division winners and 4 wild card teams. Suppose that the probability of each of them winning the … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math”
The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction
It was Billy Beane in Moneyball who famously remarked, “The playoffs are a crapshoot”. The argument goes that whatever assiduousness and craft goes into producing a winning regular season team, the outcome of the playoffs is random. I want to use my offseason opportunity this year to explore this a little bit. A warning up … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction”
Give Me A Break
It’s been an incredible 1st half for the Atlanta Braves. 6.5 games up in a division that, before Opening Day, was projected to be one of the tightest in baseball. The offense has been amazing, and while the defense hasn’t been what it was last season, it’s still been better than the rest of the … Continue reading “Give Me A Break”
Off Day Ruminations: The Albies Extension
As promised last week, I want to put my economist hat on for just a minute to discuss the Albies extension, in which people argue that Albies and his agent are leaving $100 million or more on the table. There is nothing in economics that makes this impossible, but there are good reasons to think … Continue reading “Off Day Ruminations: The Albies Extension”
The New Comment System
Well, hello everyone! Some of you like the new comment system and its new features. Some of you hate it. And some of you are just trying to make it work correctly. For those of you that hate it, let me explain why it was done and why it probably aligns with your goals. I’ve … Continue reading “The New Comment System”
A Modest Proposal
I like baseball. But like most baseball fans, I’m selective. I happen to like the game played on the field by two professional teams and managerial game strategy and the performance of humans under stress and the things that go with the 2½ to 3 hours of the game. Lots of other people are interested, … Continue reading “A Modest Proposal”