The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts

If you have missed all 5 pieces in “The Playoffs are a Crapshoot” well…tough! You should’ve been reading Braves Journal more, ya twit! Nah, just joshing. Here are the links to the first 5 parts: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot: Final Thoughts”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean

In case you missed the first 4 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 4 Last year the Braves won 97 games.  But we know that this record is partly … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 5: Regression to the Mean”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill

In case you missed the first 3 parts of “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, here they are: Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 1 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 2 Playoffs are a Crapshoot, Part 3 In the previous installment, we estimated the Bradley-Terry rating for the playoff teams.  While these are the best estimates we can … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 4: Luck vs. Skill”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality

Before we get to Jonathan F’s brilliance, Playoffs are a Crapshoot Part 3, Here are Notes from Matt L: Last night, we successfully migrated BravesJournal to a new host. This officially gives Ryan and the community full access/ownership to BravesJournal and full administration permissions. Additionally, this will (and already has in most cases) enable us … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 3: Adjusting for Opponent Quality”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math

If you missed the first piece in “Playoffs are a Crapshoot”, it provided a basic overview of what will be discussed and you can find it here. There are 10 teams that make the playoffs every year, six division winners and 4 wild card teams.  Suppose that the probability of each of them winning the … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, Part 2: Basic Probability Math”

The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction

It was Billy Beane in Moneyball who famously remarked, “The playoffs are a crapshoot”.  The argument goes that whatever assiduousness and craft goes into producing a winning regular season team, the outcome of the playoffs is random.  I want to use my offseason opportunity this year to explore this a little bit.  A warning up … Continue reading “The Playoffs Are a Crapshoot, a 6-Part Series: Introduction”

2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Billy Hamilton

Herb Washington played 2 seasons in the major leagues.  He was the original one tool player, the only player ever signed strictly as a pinch runner.  He never had a plate appearance in the majors but scored 33 runs in 105 games played.  This was the crazy idea of Charlie Finley and Alvin Dark, and … Continue reading “2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Billy Hamilton”

2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Francisco Cervelli

The Braves signed Francisco Cervelli on August 24th because they needed a catcher when McCann went down with a sprained knee. He is no spring chicken for a catcher (he’ll be 34 before next season, and he’s about two months younger than Tyler Flowers) and has a long history of concussions. The good news is … Continue reading “2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Francisco Cervelli”

2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Mark Melancon

Mark Melancon is an acceptable relief pitcher. He lives somewhere in that purgatory between Closer™ and solid setup guy. Acquired in the flurry of activity at the deadline along with Chris “Get Somebody Ready During Warmup Pitches” Martin (that’s unfair, but I’m still not quite myself) and Shane Greene, the process by which he became … Continue reading “2019 Atlanta Braves Player Review: Mark Melancon”