The final chapter, The Braves Rebuild: 2017 Offseason, likely came a little early for Braves fans at the time, as most thought the Braves would have one more season in the rebuild before climbing out of the gutter. However, the 2018 team grabbed the division with a 90-72 record led by Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, and Mike Foltynewicz. If you’re new to the series, catch up here:
- Part 1: Braves Rebuild, 2014-15 Offseason : Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 2: Braves Rebuild, 2015 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 3: Braves Rebuild, 2015-16 Offseason: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 4: Braves Rebuild, 2016 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 5: Braves Rebuild, 2016-17 Offseason trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 6: Braves Rebuild, 2017 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
Braves Rebuild, 2017-18 Offseason Trades
- Traded Jim Johnson and international bonus slot money to the Los Angeles Angels. Received Justin Kelly
- Traded Matt Kemp to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Charlie Culberson, Adrian Gonzalez, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy and cash.
- Traded cash to the Houston Astros. Received Preston Tucker.
- Traded cash to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Shane Carle.
- Traded cash to the Tampa Bay Rays. Received Ryan Schimpf.
- Traded Ryan Schimpf to the Los Angeles Angels. Received Carlos Perez.
Braves Rebuild, 2017-18 Offseason Trades: Value Outgoing
- Jim Johnson: -0.2 fWAR, 5 MM cost, -1.6 MM value
- Matt Kemp: 1.6 fWAR, 44 MM cost, 12.8 MM value
- Ryan Schimpf: DNP, 0 cost, 0 value
Outgoing Production Value: 1.4 fWAR, 11.2 MM value
Total Cost: 49 MM
37.8 MM of “gained” production
Braves Rebuild, 2017-18 Offseason Trades: Value Incoming
- Justin Kelly: No MLB experience, 0 cost
- Charlie Culberson 1 fWAR, .5 MM cost, 8 MM value
- Adrian Gonzalez: DNP, 22 MM cost, 0 value
- Scott Kazmir: DNP, 17 MM cost, 0 value
- Brandon McCarthy: 0.2 fWAR 10.5 MM cost, 0 value
- Preston Tucker: 0.1 fWAR, .2 MM cost .8 MM value
- Shane Carle: 0.2 fWAR, .78 MM cost, 1.6 MM value
- Carlos Perez: -0.1 fWAR, .3 MM cost, -0.8 MM value
Incoming Production Value: 1.4 fWAR, 11.2 MM value
Total Cost: 51.28 MM
40.08 MM of lost production
Final Recap and Tally
At the end of piece 6, the Braves had stayed slightly above the line in overall incoming production. Today’s piece shows a loss, albeit a much smaller one than most anticipated, and that is due, in large part, to the Braves keeping the 10.5 MM owed to Kemp in the trade, and sending his entire salary for for 2018 and 19 to the Dodgers. Even the 10.5 MM, as small as that is over the course of the entire rebuild, would’ve changed everything. Here’s the final total:
- +59.03 MM of gained production in Part 1
- -79.5 MM of gained production in Part 2
- +27.9 MM of gained production in Part 3
- -2.975 of gained production in Part 4
- -11.85 MM of gained production in Part 5
- +11.2 MM of gained production in Part 6
- -2.28 MM of gained production in Part 7
Final Total: +1.525 MM of gained production
The rebuild started in the 2014-15 Offseason and ended in the 2017-18 offseason and while the journey had highs (Dansby/Ender heist) and lows (Olivera/Andrelton) the team ended with +1.525 MM of gained production.
- Overall, the Braves traded north of 450 million dollars in contracts
- Overall, the Braves took on north of 240 million dollars in contracts
- Overall, the Braves gained 40.2 fWAR of production, a $322 MM value
- Overall, the Braves lost 66.5 fWAR of production, a $532 MM value
- The difference in traded dollars and contracts taken on, $210 MM
- The difference in fWAR value gained and fWAR value lost, $210MM
In doing this study, I can’t emphasize enough how fascinated I am but the above 6 bullets.
Just looking at these final numbers, it suggests the Braves gained no value in the rebuild, but we all know that this conversation is bigger than those 6 bullets. As there are players no longer with the Braves that will add or subtract to the above numbers:
However, the Braves rebuilt a core via trade to go with their core of in-house talent, and that was the sole purpose of this rebuild:
- Max Fried
- Austin Riley
- Mike Foltynewicz
- A.J. Minter
- Touki Toussaint
- Phil Pfeifer
- Luke Jackson
- Alex Jackson
- Thomas Burrows
- Ender Inciarte
- Dansby Swanson
- Sean Newcomb
- Huascar Ynoa
- Charlie Culberson
Looking at the gap and analyzing our guys, we won’t definitively know for years, but I’ve got faith in this list of players enough to confidently say that the Braves will come out on top in this rebuild.
Thank you for reading today’s piece, “Braves Rebuild, 2017 Offseason” and this entire series. It was a labor of love…mixed with torture. If you enjoyed this series, check out our entire Braves Rebuild section here.