We’ve covered the first 2 pieces of the series, “The Braves Rebuild: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value”. Today’s piece will focus on the trades made in the 2015-16 offseason. There’s a “big win” trade in here, as well as a trade that has a value loss that seemed insurmountable. If you’re new to the series on the Braves Rebuild, you’ll need to catch up. Here are our first 2 pieces:
- Part 1: Braves Rebuild, 2014-15 Offseason : Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
- Part 2: Braves Rebuild, 2015 In-season trades: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value
Braves Rebuild, 2015-16 Offseason: The Trades
- Traded Jose Briceno, Andrelton Simmons to the Angels. Received Erick Aybar, Chris Ellis, Sean Newcomb and cash.
- Traded Cameron Maybin to the Detroit Tigers. Received Ian Krol and Gabe Speier.
- Traded Shelby Miller, Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, Dansby Swanson.
- Traded Ryne Harper to the Seattle Mariners. Received Jose Ramirez.
- Traded Christian Bethancourt to San Diego Padres. Received Ricardo Rodriguez, Casey Kelly.
Braves Rebuild, 2015-16 Offseason: Outgoing Value
- Andrelton Simmons: 14.8 fWAR, 38 MM cost, 118.4 MM value
- Jose Briceno: 0.5 fWAR, 0.5 MM cost, 4 MM value
- Shelby Miller: 0.7 fWAR, 14.4 MM cost, 5.6 MM value
- Gabe Speier: -0.2 fWAR, .5 MM cost, -1.6 MM value
- Ryne Harper: 0.9 fWAR, .5 MM cost, 7.2 MM value
- Christian Bethancourt: -0.3 fWAR, 1.3 MM cost, -2.4 MM value
Outgoing Production Value: 131.2 MM
Total Cost: $55.2 MM
76 MM of lost production
- Erick Aybar: -0.8 fWAR, 4.2 MM cost, -6.4 MM value
- Sean Newcomb: 3.4 fWAR, 1.6 MM cost, 27.2 MM value
- Ian Krol: 0.6 fWAR, 1.05 MM cost, 4.8 MM value
- Aaron Blair: -0.8 fWAR, 1.05 MM cost, -6.4 MM value
- Ender Inciarte: 9.9 fWAR, 13.6 MM cost, 79.2 MM value
- Dansby Swanson: 3.9 fWAR, 1.2 MM cost, 31.2 MM value
- Jose Ramirez: -0.3 fWAR, 1.1 MM cost, -2.4 MM value
- Casey Kelly: 0.2 fWAR, .5 MM cost, 1.6 MM value
Incoming Production Value: 120 MM
Total Cost: 24.3 MM
103.9 MM of gained production
Adding up the 3 Parts this far:
- +59.03 MM of gained production in Part 1
- -79.5 MM of gained production in Part 2
- +27.9 MM of gained production in Part 3
Total: +7.43 MM through 3 parts of the rebuild
In the offseason of the Andrelton swap and the Diamonback heist, it’s hard to think of these groups of trades as a win when it comes with losing one of the greatest defensive shortstops to play the game, but the cost vs. the production argument leans toward the Braves, largely due to 3 really good seasons from Ender Inciarte. Adding to that, there’s still years left of control for Ender, Dansby, and Newcomb so there’s a fairly large chance that this gap widens in the next few years.
Thanks for reading “The Braves Rebuild: Outgoing vs. Incoming Value, Part 3: 2015-16 Offseason”. If you’re enjoying this series, check out our Braves Rebuild category here.