The Braves Rebuild, 2014-15 Braves Offseason, orchestrated by John Coppolella with John Hart as his puppet, was absolute bonkers. Never before had Braves fans (or, maybe even the entire MLB) seen such rapid fire transactions and mass hysteria via trades/signings from one team.
- 25 Players Granted Free Agency
- 44 Free Agents Signed
- 1 MLB Player Drafted in Rule 5 Draft
- 1 MLB Player Lost in Rule 5 Draft
- 32 Players Traded
- 34 Players Acquired via Trade
The purpose of today’s exercise, and the 6 pieces that follow, is to weigh losses and gains from this wild ride of the rebuild gauge success, or lack thereof, from all of the trades. I’ll use fWAR vs. cost of incoming and outgoing players to determine my stance.
As mentioned this will be a 7-part series that will cover the entire rebuild and will breakdown as follows:
- 2014-15 Offseason (Today’s piece)
- 2015 In-Season Trades
- 2015-16 Offseason
- 2015-16 In-Season Trades
- 2016-17 Offseason
- 2017 In-Season Trades
- 2017-18 Offseason
Braves Rebuild, 2014-15 Braves Offseason: The Beginning of the End
- November 16, 2014: Traded Tommy La Stella to the Chicago Cubs. Received Arodys Vizcaino.
- November 17, 2014: Traded Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Tyrell Jenkins and Shelby Miller.
- December 19, 2014: Traded Aaron Northcraft (minors) and Justin Upton to the San Diego Padres. Received Max Fried, Dustin Peterson, Jace Peterson and Mallex Smith.
- January 1, 2015: Traded David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to the New York Yankees. Received Manny Banuelos.
- January 8, 2015: Traded Kyle Kubitza to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received Nate Hyatt and Ricardo Sanchez.
- January 14, 2015: Traded Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Houston Astros. Received Andrew Thurman , Mike Foltynewicz and Rio Ruiz.
- April 5, 2015: Traded Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to the San Diego Padres. Received Jordan Paroubeck, Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler and 2015 competitive balance round A pick (turned into Austin Riley).
- April 6, 2015: Traded Victor Reyes to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received 2015 competitive balance round B pick (turned into A.J. Minter)
Recap: It didn’t take long for the Hart/Coppy regime to throw a haymaker at Braves fans as Jason Heyward was likely the fan favorite even after putting up, what most fans would see, a disappointing 2 years after an offensively promising 2012. By December 3rd, it was easy to see what was happening and no current player signed to a hefty contract was safe. Before the season had begun, 9 players from the disappointing 2014 season had been traded, replaced by 9 players, most of the veteran type. The objective was clear and most, outside Nick Markakis, were signed to trade again.
Grading each trade separately is a cherry picker’s argument waiting to happen, but grouping all of the trades together to see if the Hart/Coppy regime did the Braves future a solid, seems like good practice. Let’s get our hands dirty.
2014-15 Braves Offseason: Outgoing Value
While this exercise will get a little convoluted as there were many follow-up trades that occurred, those arguments are going to be set aside (as we’ll likely cover most of them in the upcoming pieces) and we’ll gauge the value of players leaving the Braves by team control vs. cost, no matter if the original trading partner kept said player.
- Tommy La Stella: 3.8 fWAR, 3.3 MM cost, 30.5 MM value
- Jason Heyward: 5.6 fWAR, 6.8 MM cost, 44.4 MM value
- Jordan Walden: 0.4 fWAR, 2.85 MM cost, 3.1 MM value
- Justin Upton: 5.3 fWAR, 36.625MM cost, 42.6 MM value
- Chasen Shreve and David Carpenter: -0.6 fWAR, 3.3 MM cost, -5.5 MM value
- Kyle Kubitza: -0.4 fWAR, 0.5 MM cost, -3.6 MM value
- Evan Gattis and James Hoyt: 4.9 fWAR, 16MM cost, 38.2 MM value
- Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton, Jr: 9.8 fWAR, 92MM cost, 79.1 MM value
- Victor Reyes: 0.6 fWAR, 1.1MM cost, 4.8 MM value
- Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults, and Ian Thomas: 0.8 fWAR, 4.13 MM cost, 6.6 MM value.
- Phil Gosselin: 0.6 fWAR, 1.15MM cost, 4.8MM value
Outgoing Production Value: $237.73 MM
Total Cost: $167.75 MM
~70 MM of lost production
2014-15 Braves Offseason: Incoming Value
The incoming value is only calculated for time spent in the Atlanta organization. Many players below have already been flipped to other orgs and will be covered in future pieces.
- Arodys Vizcaino: 1.9 fWAR, 10.7 MM cost, 15MM value
- Shelby Miller: 3.7 fWAR, $.54 MM cost, 29.5 MM value
- Tyrell Jenkins: -0.9 fWAR, .54 MM cost, -7.6 MM value
- Dustin Peterson, Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, Max Fried: 4.9 fWAR, 4.5 MM cost, 39.8 MM value.
- Manny Banuelos: -0.2 fWAR, .54 MM cost, -0.4 MM value
- Rio Ruiz: 0.0 fWAR, 1.25 MM cost, 0 MM value
- Mike Foltynewicz: 7.9 fWAR, 8.8 MM cost, 62. 4 MM value
- Cameron Maybin, Carlos Quentin, Matt Wisler, and Austin Riley: 2.3 fWAR, 17 MM cost, 19MM value
- A.J. Minter: 1.9 fWAR, 1.4 MM cost, 15.2 MM value
Incoming Production Value: 172.9
Total Cost: 43.87
129.03 MM of gained production
While there’s a lot more to come and there are more players on both sides with years of control, and I have absolutely 0 clue if this exercise means anything to anyone outside of myself, it looks as if the very beginning of the tear down went in the Braves favor by $59.03 MM. And, as mentioned before, with players like Max Fried, Austin Riley, Mike Foltynewicz, and A.J. Minter still adding (or subtracting) to the incoming value bottom line, the collective trades from the 2014-15 Offseason could prove to be the fruitiest!
Thanks for reading on “The Rebuild: Lost Value vs. Incoming Value, Part 1: 2014-15 Braves Offseason”. If you enjoyed this, you might also enjoy our Best/Worst Trades in Braves History pieces.