Last Update: Odds on Braves Postseason Roster

This list is assuming Ender Inciarte is healthy enough to swing a bat as the Braves, at the least, really need another LH bat off the bench. This list is also assuming that Johan Camargo will not be ready for the 1st round of the playoffs. I make a few assumptions that seem logical to me, but feel free to let me know how crazy I am in the comments!

Hitters

Freddie Freeman– 100%
Ozzie Albies– 100%
Dansby Swanson– 100%
Josh Donaldson– 100%
Ronald Acuna– 100%
Matt Joyce– 100%
Brian McCann– 100%
Tyler Flowers– 100%
Nick Markakis– 100%
Francisco Cervelli– 100%
Adeiny Hechavarria– 100%
Billy Hamilton– 100%
Ender Inciarte– 100%
Adam Duvall– 75%
Austin Riley– 25%
Johan Camargo– 0%
Rafael Ortega– 0%
John Ryan Murphy– 0%
Charlie Culberson -0%

Breakdown

Both Hechavarria and Hamilton have solidified roster spots on the playoff roster with good to great overall play. Hechavarria could even see some starts over Dansby if Dansby continues to struggle. With the latest news regarding Anthopoulos’s plans to carry 3 catchers, I think the Braves are back to a 6-man bench with Riley and Duvall battling it out for the last spot. I think Duvall has the upper hand at the moment as he has legitimate defensive upside and the ability to crush left-handed pitching. Some point to the lack of a 1B backup, but that’s simply a non-factor as Cervelli, Flowers, and Markakis can all backup Freddie.

Pitchers

Dallas Keuchel– 100% on roster, 100% in rotation
Mike Soroka– 100% on roster, 100% in rotation
Max Fried– 100% on roster, 50% in rotation
Julio Teheran– 100% on roster, 50% in rotation
Mike Foltynewicz– 100% on roster, 100% in rotation
Shane Greene– 100%
Mark Melancon– 100%
Sean Newcomb– 100%
Chris Martin– 100%
Darren O’Day– 75%
Jerry Blevins 75%
Luke Jackson– 25%
Josh Tomlin– 25%
Grant Dayton– 0%
Anthony Swarzak– 0%
Philip Pfeifer– 0%
Chad Sobotka– 0%
Bryse Wilson– 0%
Jeremy Walker– 0%
Kyle Wright– 0%
Patrick Weigel– 0%
Tucker Davidson– 0%
Tyler Matzek– 0%
Caleb Thielbar– 0%
Touki Toussaint– 0%
Huascar Ynoa– 0%
Jacob Webb– 0%

Breakdown

As you can see, it’s my belief that the pitching roster is darn near solidified with exception of the last 2 bullpen spots. My personal belief is that O’Day and Blevins have the leg up as they’re situational guys that have dominated the opposition when they match their handedness. It would be tough for Luke to be left off the roster considering he carried the bullpen with Newk the first few months of the year but the Braves already have their 6-9 innings covered with Newk, Martin, Melancon, and Greene. From there, situational guys just seem to have more value in the playoffs. There’s an argument to be made here to leave Teheran off the playoff roster and carry an extra reliever, but I don’t think the Braves have any thought of doing that to Julio, who’s played above expectations and likely earned his option of 12 million. Folty has solidified his spot in the playoff rotation rattling off brilliant work since returning from Gwinnett (9 games started, Braves won all 9, 2.35 ERA, 2.75 BB/9). My gut tells me Julio’s going to get the ball in Game 4 and Fried will be used to get left-handed hitters out in crucial situations.

Thanks for reading!

Long live, Braves Journal!

Author: Ryan Cothran

Ryan is the site editor and manager of Braves Journal. Follow him on Twitter.

42 thoughts on “Last Update: Odds on Braves Postseason Roster”

  1. I think the biggest question is Dansby. If he can get his timing back over the next week, it makes it a whole lot easier. Hechavarria has 3218 major league plate appearances over which he’s batted .252/.290/.349. He’s the kind of guy who inspires managers to bat the pitcher 8th.

    JonathanF gave the best argument you can muster for why you shouldn’t be afraid to go with the hot hand — after all, even Adeiny’s career stats are miles better than Dansby’s looked in September. But we still only have 9 guys in the starting lineup, and if we send Mark Belanger up there along with the pitcher, a non-Acuna non-Markakis outfielder, and McFlowvelli, the offense that carried us the first half of the year is going to be frighteningly anemic.

  2. Nice read. No problem with the pitchers, but wish Claude were healthy and Dansby was better than he’s shown since his return. His best use may be as the Billy Hamilton-like base runner. He doesn’t hit and despite apologists, his glove ain’t golden.

  3. I don’t know of an easy way of determining if a player is “streaky” other than being able to compile data to see if they’ve had a sustain period (100 PAs?) where they’ve had outlier performance (sub-600 or above-850 OPS, in Dansby’s case). And I don’t have a way of compiling that data easily so I go through his game logs and try to pick out the times where I see a bunch of zeroes in the hit columns and a bunch of crooked numbers in the hit columns and run data based on that.

    So with that said, my gut tells me that Dansby is a streaky hitter, and he’s in the midst of a terrible slump: .135/.281/.176 in 89 PAs since returning from the IL. Since he reached his peak OPS of .882 on May 1st, he has hit .239/.318/.386., a .704 OPS, in 404 PAs. My fear is that if you tacked on another 20-30 games onto this season, he’d end the year with a sub-700 OPS, and we’d be talking about a guy who has a career sub-700 OPS in almost 2,000 PAs, and maybe he shouldn’t be playing shortstop for us next season. I’m not kidding. He’s about 50-75 PAs of his current production from getting there, and ending the year with a sub-700 OPS would undoubtedly trigger the offseason calls for his departure in a way that his .701 OPS doesn’t quite do.

    How much is the risk that Hechavarria could possibly be any worse than that? 5%? Less?

    (Funny how being north of south of a round number makes a big impact to us. For example, in college football, Florida is 9th in the AP poll. A lot of folks are saying they’re “overrated”. Do I care what they’re ranked? No. If they were 11th, would I care? No. Are they “overrated” at 9th or “rated properly” at 11th or “underrated” at 13th? I don’t know, and I don’t care, and it’s funny how the mind works with round numbers.)

  4. Dansby might be streaky, but the two things we definitely know about him are: he seems to be injury-prone, and his injuries affect his offense WAY more than he thinks. So he claims to be healthy and then stinks at the dish. I have to wonder if he’s hiding another injury.

  5. Chipper said on ESPN the other day that Dansby’s lack of success at the plate since returning from injury is easy to diagose: He’s still hurt. Adeiny may only be streaky for a short period of time but I’d be willing to ride it out, especially considering he’s no joke defensively.

  6. @6-7

    Then that’s on the team, then, but it doesn’t change the question: should Dansby start in the playoffs? If he’s hurt, then the answer is even easier to make.

  7. @9
    I think that answer is actually quite easy. Matt Joyce against RHP, Nick Markakis against LHP with Duvall playing one of the corners.

  8. I’m in full agreement with the list except for Inciarte. I think assuming he’s healthy and can swing a bat is a huge assumption. I would put Duvall at 100% and Riley/ Inciarte at 50/50. I know they badly want a lefty, but if Ender’s legs or bat is deemed too rusty, I don’t think he goes.

  9. @13 I’m with you. You can’t use Riley to really PR. Even rusty, Ender gives you better legs than our catchers. That’s value there. And for all the power Riley has, he still has to put bat to ball to use it.

  10. As for Dansby, the info you laid out is concerning, Rob. I think he’s way too young to give up on, even next year. I mean who would be the better option?

    I do think you start Hech in the playoffs this season, however. You have to ride your hottest hand, regardless of name or pedigree.

  11. Riley has a .533 OPS since his return to the bigs. I can’t fathom that he’s an option unless he goes nuts this week.

  12. Julio is gonna pitch himself out of the rotation. Even Good Julio doesn’t have a pitch with swing-and-miss. Foul, foul, foul, foul, double. That’s not gonna cut it in the playoffs.

  13. Sorry guys, but Inciarte not playing tonight gives me very little indication that he’ll be ready for the playoffs. He’s got 4 games after this one to be in playoff shape.

  14. Thank God this team isn’t playing the Royals in the postseason, because they haven’t been able to handle this juggernaut once all year.

  15. @31 I’d give Julio’s spot to Inciarte, even if Ender had to hop the bases on one leg.

    In all seriousness though, I hope they take someone like Kyle Wright over Tehran.

  16. Trade Julio Theran now. After what I saw in KC. With division clinch no pressure he could not throw enough strikes.

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