Updated Odds on the Braves Postseason 25 Man

I think my previous pieces have become largely irrelevant with the injuries to both Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo. Adding news today of the Braves purchasing the contract of catcher John Ryan Murphy, and the heart of the bench I was predicting comes back into the fold. Two things to take away from today’s news:

  1. Francisco Cervelli is indeed on the shelf, but not enough to warrant an IL stint.
  2. The Braves, unless best case scenario of both Camargo and Ender becoming healthy and available for the first round, are seriously considering carrying 3 catchers to free up McCann or Flowers as a pinch hitter with Hamilton being their legs.

Let’s get to the odds.

Hitters

Freddie Freeman– 100%
Ozzie Albies– 100%
Dansby Swanson– 100%
Josh Donaldson– 100%
Ronald Acuna– 100%
Matt Joyce– 100%
Brian McCann– 100%
Tyler Flowers– 100%
Nick Markakis– 100%
Ender Inciarte– 50%
Billy Hamilton– 50%
Francisco Cervelli– 50%
John Ryan Murphy– 50%
Johan Camargo– 50%
Adam Duvall-50%
Adeiny Hechavarria– 50%
Austin Riley– 50%
Rafael Ortega– 50%
Charlie Culberson -0%

Breakdown:

The fate of the bench lies in the fate of Camargo and Ender. If they’re both available, things greatly change. As of now, I think they’re not going to be ready for the 1st round and that will lead the Braves to carry 3 catchers, greatly altering the chances of carrying both Austin Riley and Adam Duvall as Hechavarria will have to be a near guarantee on the bench.

Pitchers


Dallas Keuchel– 100% on roster, 100% in rotation
Mike Soroka– 100% on roster, 100% in rotation
Max Fried– 100% on roster, 67% in rotation
Julio Teheran– 100% on roster, 67% in rotation
Mike Foltynewicz– 100% on roster, 67% in rotation
Shane Greene– 100%
Mark Melancon– 100%
Sean Newcomb– 100%
Chris Martin– 100%
Darren O’Day– 75%
Jerry Blevins 75%
Luke Jackson– 75%
Josh Tomlin– 75%
Grant Dayton– 25%
Anthony Swarzak– 25%
Philip Pfeifer– 10%
Chad Sobotka– 10%
Bryse Wilson– 10%
Jeremy Walker– 10%
Kyle Wright– 10%
Patrick Weigel– 0%
Tucker Davidson– 0%
Tyler Matzek– 0%
Caleb Thielbar– 0%
Touki Toussaint– 0%
Huascar Ynoa– 0%
Jacob Webb– 0%

Breakdown:

The 75%ers could very well be locks, but I’m not willing to go there on any of them as the odd man out in the rotation could greatly influence the fate of Tomlin, Jackson, or Dayton.

With the way O’Day and Blevins have been being used, I think their % chances are on the rise as both can be very valuable facing same-handed bats. Dayton and below are on the outside looking in, but if the Braves do decide to carry 12 pitchers, one of those 6 will get the chance.

Thanks for reading!

Long live Braves Journal!

Author: Ryan Cothran

Ryan is the site editor and manager of Braves Journal. Follow him on Twitter.

70 thoughts on “Updated Odds on the Braves Postseason 25 Man”

  1. Thank you Ryan.

    If you’re craving some live action Liverpool at Napoli in the Champions League is on now live…TNT and B/R.

  2. How much do we know about the locations and times of the NLDS and NLCS games? I received the Verified Fan email from Ticketmaster and apparently will have the chance to buy tickets tomorrow. Want to take my son to a game, but don’t want him to miss school, and we’re 2+ hours from STP, so any weekday start before 6pm would be a problem. The MLB.com schedule I saw doesn’t list times yet. Assuming we win the division with the league’s 2nd best record, we would host NLDS “B” games 1, 2, and if needed 5 on Thursday Oct. 3, Friday Oct. 4, and Wednesday Oct. 9, right? I assume the Dodgers games would be in prime time and ours would be earlier, but does anyone have any info? As for the NLCS, if we play the Dodgers would we host games 3, 4, and 5 (on weeknights), and what time would they start? If the Dodgers lose in the NLDS & we play a team with a worse record, would we host games 1, 2, 6, and 7 instead? Thanks for any info or even informed speculation.

  3. 5 — If we are playing the Cubs or Dodgers, I would expect more prime time games. If it is another team, it’s more likely to be a day game, I would think.

  4. James, best thing I can point you toward is Baseball-Reference: https://www.baseball-reference.com/postseason/2018_NLDS2.shtml

    In last year’s NLDS against the Dodgers, the Braves were at home for Game 3 and Game 4. Bizarrely, Game 3 started at 4:30 PM. Game 4, however, started at 8:07.

    In the 2013 NLDS against the Dodgers, the Braves were at home for Game 1 and Game 2. Game 1 started at 8:39; Game 2 started at 6:08.

    Honestly, it’s hard to say.

  5. James, everything you state is accurate as to days the Braves would play at home under various scenarios. Unfortunately, we won’t know time of day for a good while—need to purchase without knowing the time. And as to the NLCS we won’t even know the days we are at home until the NLDS is over.
    The good news is that the tickets are easy to sell if you can’t use them. But what a shame if that happens.
    The other bright side is that we have more certainty this year as to the NLDS than most years. It’s almost certain we will be in NLDS B and that we have home field advantage. Many years you don’t know that until the last day of the season.

  6. Do we know the logic/justification for batting Flowers ahead of Dansby who is coming back fast to form? It seemed that we predictably wasted two base runners there in the first.

    Dallas is pitching like an automaton. Wow.

  7. @7, @8, & @9 – Thanks for the info. I can see why the TV folks might prefer to have a Dodgers NLDS game in a later time slot – bigger name team, better record, and three time zones west of us. As for the NLCS, even against the Dodgers/Cubs, I fear the TV folks may prefer a Yankees ALCS game in prime time. I may try for the third NLCS game, which might be the night before our son’s fall break or during the fall break, depending on whether the Dodgers win their NLDS. Good problem to have, I guess – for several Septembers the only thing I had to follow was how high a draft pick the team would get.

  8. Rob, remember back when you were ragging on Chief that Dansby had used up his home run allotment? It seems like you were unintentionally accurate.

  9. What did I do to deserve this on a Tuesday? This inning is over if either JD or Dallas allow Dansby to make an easy play.

  10. I don’t know how we split with the Phillies last week. They’ve been killing us. We got a couple on Velsaquez but he’s not even this good. We ought to have more.

    @39 C’mon. Really. He had a couple of bad defensive plays behind him and had to get 5 outs that inning. It leads to a lot of potential bad things happening by having to throw so many extra pitches. Nearly perfect for three innings. He’s also been solid for the most of the year.

  11. He had a couple of bad defensive plays behind him and had to get 5 outs that inning.

    I think that’s kind of the point. krussell likes power pitching in the playoffs. The man’s on record.

  12. This team is really not hitting the way they should with the exception of Ozzie. No one is hitting XBH. Lots of balls dying on the warning track; no HRs. Those that are hitting are hitting singles. The Braves look really tired.

  13. @43 Perhaps I should say that he prefers pitchers with more swing-and-miss ability in the playoffs. I think Keuchel has the lowest K rate of the 4 potential playoff starters.

  14. We slumped really badly last year during the last 8-10 games and went into the playoffs with no momentum. I hope that doesn’t happen this year.

  15. Are y’all watching the same team I am? The one that just finished a winning road trip and is playing better ball than anybody else? Today’s just one game, and it’s not over yet. I don’t know what more you could ask for.

  16. Pretty cool: I’m going to be within a few hours of St. Louis when Atlanta might be playing game 3 if the playoff seeding holds the way it is. So I think I might yet make a NLDS game.

    As for a potential NLCS game, I’m thinking I might head up to Atlanta for games 3 and 4, which are October 14th and 15th. Would definitely be down for having a beer with anyone from the Journal if you’re thinking about going.

  17. O’Day was OK, not perfect. He’s still getting in sync. He found the strike zone after the first hitter and I saw a couple of classic high FB swings and misses. But they also hit a couple hard at’em balls against him.

    I think the Braves will take 12 pitchers and the last three after your nine 100%’ers will be Jackson, Blevins, and O’Day. You see both O’Day and Blevins getting their work in tonight.

  18. Nice job Hech. Too little too late but nice anyway. Why didn’t he PH instead of Ortega with two guys on? Can we PH for TFlow too?

  19. Dansby is indeed cold.

    Dayton looked really good. I would like to improve his percentage to 35% after that outing.

  20. Man, Donaldson just stared at that splitter right down the middle. Good road trip but this team has nights where it doesn’t seem to really care.

  21. JD had to be guessing…I guess.

    Guess right, you’ve jumped the gun, hero potential.

    Guess wrong you look stupid

    Freddie did nothing though, Dansby was awful, looks tired, rest for him please.

    Nick reverts back to human. Cut the story book ending. Good to see Duvall’s in synch though.

    EECH was interesting, right, who knew? Keep him around.

  22. @68 Yeah, I’m sure he was guessing and he likely didn’t think that pitch would bend back over the plate.

    Freddie looks like he’s swinging a limp noodle again. It’s all he can do to take a lot of walks. The bone spur may be be bothering him more than he’s letting on.

    Dansby needs more work in the cage. Get back to the pitch recognition he had before getting injured.

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