Braves 3, Marlins 1 (10)

Ender Inciarte doubled home pinch-runner Max Fried with the go-ahead run in the top of the 10th, and Charlie Culberson added some Luke Leeway with a sacrifice fly as the Braves completed the 3 game sweep.

Fried was running for Josh Donaldson, who led off the 10th with a pinch-hit walk. A possibly ill-advised send with nobody out, as Fried is out if catcher Chad Wallach holds onto the throw, but aggression paid off, and what the hell, Fried looked pretty good coming into 3rd, even if he ran out of gas departing it.

Julio Teheran allowed 2 hits and struck out 4 in 6 innings, and stood to benefit when Nick Markakis opened the scoring with a solo home run in the top of the 7th. Dan Winkler pitched a clean 7th, but the Marlins tied the game in the bottom of the 8th.

Early in my work career, a wise man told me, “Let me tell you son – it only takes one ‘Ah, @#$!’ to cancel out ten ‘attaboys’.” Josh Tomlin, who worked out of an inherited bases-loaded, no-out jam on Wednesday, was the culprit in the 8th, allowing 3 straight singles. Tomlin reset his attaboy counter to “1” with a clean 9th.

Luke Jackson pitched the 10th for his 2nd save, allowing a Peter O’Brien double off the ceiling, but striking out 2. Pablo Lopez matched Teheran’s 6 scoreless, allowing 3 hits and striking out 6.

A quick turnaround to Dodger Stadium Monday at 10:10 Eastern; Kevin Gausman moved up to face the scheduled Walker Buehler.

Author: Rusty S.

Rusty S. is a Braves Journal reader since 2005 and an occasional innings-eater. It was my understanding that there would be no expectations.

44 thoughts on “Braves 3, Marlins 1 (10)”

  1. From last thread

    So, after Luke Jackson, who is the biggest surprise of the season for Atlanta so far?

    Flowcann?
    Soroka?
    Fried?
    Others?

  2. Thank you, Rusty. I wasn’t afraid Max was going to be out one out. I was afraid he was going to be IL out. Old men gonna worry.

    I’m glad I don’t have to fly west. You boys play good baseball.

  3. I don’t consider Fried or Soroka much of a surprise. I am surprised by how good Dansby’s bat has looked. I think it’s too early to declare Luke Jackson a success, though he admittedly has performed much better than I thought he would. Bryler has exceeded expectations thus far as well.

  4. Biggest surprise is Dansby the hitter. May he keep it up.

    Second biggest is Fried’s emergence. I always thought he had it in him, he just needed health and reps. May he, too, keep it up.

  5. I’m certainly surprised and pleased at Luke Jackson’s success. (“Luke Leeway”—great stuff, Rusty. Is that more or less than Minter Margin?)
    But remember that Shane Carle and Jesse Biddle each had strong runs for at least a month last year.

    As several others have said, the most surprising development (and hopefully most enduring) is Swanson’s bat. If he will be a productive major league hitter, that makes him extremely valuable.

  6. Happy to jump in here and provide some guidance. Luke Leeway is a smaller unit of measure than Minter Margin. Minter Margin is a little larger. Both, though, are smaller than Reitsma Room. If you’re keeping score at home, in terms of smallest to largest, this is what where we’re looking:

    1) Reitsma Room
    2) Minter Margin
    3) Luke Leeway

    Of course, these are subject to change. Should Shane Carle return to the ML roster, we will be implementing Carle Cushion to get some long reliever representation for leads of 5 or more. But please keep in mind that Winkler has been pretty volatile too, so we may reach a point where if Carle does not return, we could be looking for some Winkler Wiggle, which is leads of 5 or more.

  7. Oh, and I forgot to mention, if we reach a deficit or 9 or more, then we’ll have reached a, you guessed it, Culberson Catastrophe.

  8. This is a good framework for a Adam R. POWER RANKINGS of our bullpen members. Wink wink, nudge nudge.

  9. I don’t know if it is a surprise that Fried and Soroka are good, but I don’t think most expected them both to be among the best pitchers in the league so far. I would consider that the biggest surprise.

  10. I’d probably say Fried. He’s pitching like a top of the rotation starter. If I told you that Luke Jackson would be an above average reliever, you wouldn’t believe it, but if I showed you his spin rate on his slider from last year and his average 4-seamer velocity, you might say, “Ehhh, I guess I could see him putting together a good stretch.” And that’s pretty much it; he’s on a good stretch. But if hitters start laying off that slider or if he can’t throw it for strikes consistently, he’ll get it hit.

    But Fried taking the ball and consistently pitching like a top of the rotation starter is definitely a big surprise. And Soroka being nearly unhittable in about half as many innings as Fried is a close second.

  11. For coop, it has to be Dansby’s improvement. :)

    For Dansby, he’s increased his walk % a little bit (from 8 to 10, nothing to sneeze it), and his BABIP hasn’t increased that much, but his ISO obviously has jumped huge. He’s just simply hitting balls harder that aren’t landing than he was before.

  12. The biggest surprise for me is Dansby’s improvement as a hitter. Going into the year, I was thinking back to Freddie’s struggles (and I use that word for lack of a better word, when Freddie was hitting like a mere regular guy) coming off the wrist, and how it might impact Swanson. Dansby isn’t that level of hitter, so I expected some struggles at the dish. Yeeaahh… nope! Lol.

    I was confident in Flowcann going into the year.

  13. For me, the biggest surprises are the “down” performances rather than the good ones. For me, the biggest surprise is Minter not being lights out. He and Winkler have been stars at the end of the bullpen since they were called up in late 2017. Minter should have been our closer, hands down, and Winkler the top set up. The other biggest disappointment, in my opinion, is none of the prospects outside of Fried and Soroka (both of whom I expected to be very good) stepping up and pitching like they deserve to be in the majors.

    Camargo is a mild downside surprise as is Folty. I expect more from Gausman because he has always been a slow starter. Newcomb also a mild downside surprise only because I hoped he would recover and he yet might. Ender’s defense is a downside surprise.

    I have been anticipating both Dansby and Fried to break out since mid-last year. So the fact that they did is not a surprise. Similar for Soroka. Albies and Acuna are so young, it could hardly be a surprise that they could further develop more upside.

    The only other upside surprise, so far, is how good Joyce has been off the bench (and, ironically, how good Duvall is hitting at AAA).

    I do wonder as we had so many good rookie bullpen performances last if the whole pen is not undergoing a sophomore slump (Sobotka, Biddle, Carle, Minter, Winkler – essentially all rookies last year).

  14. 1) Reitsma Room
    2) Minter Margin
    3) Luke Leeway

    Carle Cushion

    Winkler Wiggle

    Culberson Catastrophe.

    It’s unacceptable to have everyone else referenced by surname but have Luke Jackson be referenced by first name. It should be the Jackson Jiggle.

  15. Ozzie’s walk % has increased ever so slightly from 5.3% to 6.4%. I can’t remember where to go to find pitchers per PA data, but he has cut down on his strike outs a little (17 to 14%), increased his BABIP, and increased his ISO. So he’s certainly become a better hitter, probably getting in better hitters’ counts, which is why his triple slash looks so much better.

  16. @ 14: yep. Dansby has looked like a real baseball player this year. May it continue. I want to see the prodigy keep it going for a bit before we throw big bucks at him.

  17. I’m really pissed that they suspended Gausman for NOT hitting someone. Especially after Urena’s bush league move.

  18. The Gausman suspension is garbage. No warning, whatsoever. Ball never even hit Urena. Even if it had, it’d have been down in the lower body. The message was sent, and Urena’s intact. MLB should’ve just let it be. What’s even more laughable is that there are people out there crying it should’ve been more, though.

  19. The offense has been excellent; I’m surprised that seven of our regulars (all except Inciarte, but including McFlowers) are slugging at least .480. We shouldn’t expect that to continue, but overall I expect this lineup to continue to produce.

    Biddle bulge>5 runs.

  20. Here’s another surprise for you. The Braves defense is not all that good.Especially considering that Acuna has improved so much. Barely middling ratings at FG (15th overall team defense). That is a little discussed issue that’s really holding us down. We’ve already given up 17 unearned runs. That’s second worst (tied with the Orioles). Need to do some fixin’ there.

  21. But what about the unwritten rule of justified retaliation over a 9-month-old slight?!

  22. @25–thanks for link, Roger. This confirms my impression that RAJ possesses remarkable (and improving!) plate discipline. That bodes very well for his ability to adjust to pitchers’ adjustments to him—and therefore continue to improve.

    @26–I think the sample size is probably insufficient to tell us anything meaningful about the defense so far. Unearned runs are fluky and very dependent on the context (number of outs, etc.)

  23. I’m not a drinking man, but if Sobotka is on the roster towards the end of the year and we don’t see massive improvement, it may be Sobotka Vodka time when he comes in.

  24. Yeah. Gausman intentionally threw at a guy. The league is well within their rights to suspend him for it. He did the same thing as Urena only more “professionally.”

  25. @29 Perhaps, but two more unearned runs in 2 innings tonight. Error and passed ball.

  26. If I’m not mistaken, when Gausman is serving his suspension the Braves can use his roster spot to call up another reliever. If that’s true, the suspension isn’t even really a punishment for the Braves.

  27. If the Braves played all 162 games against the Dodgers, what do you think its record would be?

    I’ll go with 40-122.

  28. More disappointing than Teheran, nearly as much as Newk.

    Edit: sounds about right, Chief :(

  29. A pitcher throws at a guy, when there has been articles written for two days about the looming bad blood/Red Bull angst including veiled threats/quotes from said pitcher about what is going to happen and you partisans are surprised or mad he got suspended?

    LOL.

  30. Can anyone who’s watching this game deny that the Dodgers’ defense has been superior to the Braves? One of Gausman’s earned runs would have been prevented if they had gotten the force at 3rd before the sac fly.

    Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ OF has been robbing hits left and right. Muncy at 1B too.

    This game could easily be a 1-0 pitchers duel.

  31. Nice to hear from you Chief. As usual, your posts were pretty scarce when the Braves were winning this weekend. I will have to admit that it makes a big difference when we play a real team. Can we start this game over and let Gausman take his suspension now?

  32. Gausman pitched better than his line. His defense let him down big time. After the HRs from Freddie and Nick, this game could be 3-2 Braves. Even 3-3 would be a lot better….

  33. Gausman has indeed been a disappointment so far. Newk looked good out there throwing strikes and hitting mid 90s. Gotta get them tomorrow.

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