Beginnings: Braves 8, Immature Bears 0

The Braves are with you
It doesn’t matter where you are
Or what you’re doing
They’re with you, that’s all that matters

Cubs could not catch that baseball
We were together laughing
A shutout is oh so fun, whoa oh
A shutout is oh so fun

Oh oh oh oh oh oh woah oh oh oh
Oh oh oh oh oh oh woah oh oh oh

Mostly I’m chopping, hmm
chopping

When you’re winning
You feel a thousand different feelings
A cover of chills
All over your body
And when you feel them
You quickly try to decide which one
You should try to put into words, oh no,
Try to put into words.

Mostly I’m chopping.
Only the beginning of what we need to feel forever.
Only the beginning. Only just the start.
We’ve got to sweep these bad Cubs.
Got to get back to first place.
Only the beginning. Only just the start. …

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134 thoughts on “Beginnings: Braves 8, Immature Bears 0”

  1. Adam Duval is in AAA, and Matt Wisler is on a major league roster, so basically I know more than AA does.

  2. Of the top 30 fWAR pitchers last year, 18 pitched less than 200 innings. 6 pitched less than 180. And probably more telling, only 57 pitchers last year qualified. And I think this is the hardest thing for me to get used to, that pitchers on the whole simply will not be counted on to make 30 starts and give you 6 innings per start. Newcomb, probably the most frustrating pitcher I’ve watched in this era, was 56th in innings pitched last year. So on average, only 1.7 pitchers per rotation pitched more innings than he did last year, which boggles my mind. And he made 30 starts, so if he even made 2 more starts last year, pitched only 5 innings both starts, he would have been 40th in MLB in IP. Like, wow.

    Another random fact: no team had 5 starting pitchers qualify last year, which is not that noteworthy. But only 3 teams even had 4. 6 teams had 3, which includes the Braves. So only 9 teams in baseball had at least 3 starting pitchers qualify. Trevor Bauer, because he pitches deep into games, made only 27 starts and still qualified.

    That’s going to be hard to get used to. Your favorite team is going to employ anywhere from 8-12 starting pitchers in any one year, and only 3 of them — if you’re lucky — will average 6 innings per start. This really lends a lot of credence to the Braves strategy, and I wonder how long it will take MLB fans to catch up with this.

  3. I’d like to know how much of this is related to pitchers not throwing strikes. Our guys are hitting 100 pitches by the 5th inning, and I’d like to think this is true across all of baseball. A couple of games ago, I looked at the clock and realized an hour had passed since the first pitch. It was only the 2nd inning, and both pitchers were approaching 50 pitches………………

    Baseball needs to fix that problem and forget about pitch clocks.

  4. @6

    I mean, that’s definitely what it is. Both Hendricks and Newk were at 20-25 pitches per inning, and with the bad defense, the game just crawled along. We were winning, so we didn’t notice it, but a generic baseball fan is not going to tune in and watch Newk bounce change-ups. I think he stays healthy, I think he’s a horse that goes out and throws 100 pitches an outing and makes 30+ starts and is a perfectly cromulent 3-5 starter for us until FA, but man, it’ll be a chore sometimes watching him.

    With that said, when he’s on, he’s right up there with Folty in enjoyment. That smooth delivery, the upper 90’s fastball, his change up and slider. It’s niiiiiiiice.

  5. Also of note: zeroes from the pen. Parsons, Biddle (2 innings), Sobotka, and Vizzy all had clean outings. The Cubs’ offense is slumping, but so are we, so it’s nice to get through a game without feeling some consternation towards the pen.

    Also, Culberson is on pace to appear in 40.25 games, get 40.25 ABs, and hit 40.25 home runs. Yeah, he’s only had one AB, the homer in the 9th. Joyce has had 4 ABs so far, so you can tell they’re trying to see if he’ll work.

  6. Of all the changes MLB is considering making, I’d like to see them widen the strike zone and ban the shift. Whenever one side of the game begins to upset the balance, they should just make small tweaks to restore that balance. The game doesn’t need to transform into something utterly boring like soccer. This sport enjoyed a huge spike in popularity when there were dominant hitters and pitchers and not this mess of barely heard of’s who are past their prime by age 30….

  7. the Chicago Cubs
    in the number and manner of their flubs
    have far exceeded their paradigm
    though Schwarber said, this is what I used to do, most of the time.

  8. @11 Well guess what, ADAM, in your attempt to mock me, you proved my point. In that episode, as you can see, Mr. Burns should have been required to make his $1M donation to the local orphanage because the pig did indeed fly. So when Matt Wisler has an excellent career as a shut-down reliever and is enshrined in what is bound to be a VERY big Hall by that time, YOU WILL NOT BE INVITED.

    Don’t even try to apologize to me, man. You did this. YOU DID THIS.

  9. I don’t like calls for banning the shift. It’s a strategic defensive risk that can backfire on you. Freddie Freeman is exhibit A of how to overcome it. Great players can exploit it. I see banning it akin to telling football defensive backs that they can’t double Julio Jones. I don’t see how it slows down the game either.

  10. Apparently years 9/10 as club options. Still looking for some confirmation outside of the one source. Furcal rule.

  11. I think part of the deal is that he has to wear a Financial Flexibility jersey.

    Are your hairs still on fire kids?

  12. Before the option years they just bought the first three years of his free agent years for less that 15m. Those are the years harper just got 30m per for.

  13. can somebody explain the business side to me? his rookie control lasted another 6 years at what? arb amounts of $1M per? so this deal extends another 4 years for an additional cost of around $120M? just trying to understand the business side a little.

  14. First good news since the Donaldson signing, but it is very good news.

    It does sort of make their manipulation of his service time last year a little eyebrow-raising, though. If you’re just going to buy out those seasons anyway, why bother? I guess it gives them marginally more leverage?

  15. Damn. RAJ should have squeezed them for another $25M. This takes him through age-30 and there may not be a huge payday afterwards, but it’s an enormous deal for a player with <1 year of service.

  16. @ 28,

    First 3 years 610,000 each (I think that is current “major league minimum).

    Next 3 years arb. 20 , 40 , 60 (?). If so, approx 6, 12, and 24 mill.

    So to that point, about 44 mill.

    So, I don’t follow Sam’s math.

    Add 2 years around 28 each gets you around 100.

    It does make the option years seem very cheap.

  17. @19 You’re right. The reason for why I would do it is to promote offense. It also kind of bothers me to have fielders playing way out of position, and I get that it’s a risk and a gamble that they choose to take. I’d rather just draw a region on the field where the SS can be placed and have it not be on the other side of 2B.

    If we were going to widen the strike zone, it could tip the balance in favor of the pitcher such that he can pitch you into the shift just about every time. At least if we reduce the ability to shift to that extreme, you preserve some chance of getting on base.

    They used to say that Greg Maddux could pitch a hitter into a ground out to a fielder of his choosing when he was on his A game. That’s my sort of “ignorant” defense of banning the shift if we widen the strike zone.

  18. Wow, wow, wow. That is a GREAT deal for Atlanta. Incredible. I mean, Acuna gets A TON of guaranteed money, so no one should feel sorry for him right now, but those two club options are incredible.

    His age-28 and age-29 seasons are $17M per? That’s… incredible.

    So let’s be honest; Acuna just guaranteed himself $124M.

  19. Mookie Betts just reset the market expectations for Acuna in arbitration. If he continues to play at this level he’d make 20+ per year every arb year.

  20. @31

    I don’t think it’s eyebrow-raising. They had the right to do it. They did it. But now they’ve negotiated basically their own escalation of guaranteed money.

    It’s almost like the CBA is being ripped up and re-written based on basic economic principles.

  21. Acuna matada, what a wonderful phrase!
    Ain’t no passing craze
    It means no worries for the rest of your days

    For the next 10 years at least…

  22. While I was wayyyyy off on Camargo, it doesn’t seem that I was that far off on Acuna:

    My modest proposal is 8 years, $118M: $2M in 2019, $5M in 2020, $5M in 2021 for pre-arb, $12M in 2022, $18M in 2023, $20M in 2024 for arb. $28M for both 2025 and 2026. He gets early money in his next two pre-arb years where he’d otherwise be making the league minimum. Then through his arb years, the Braves get a fairly steep discount at $5M, $12M, and $20M in his last arb year. But then they get the first 3 years of his free agency at a discounted rate of $28M per year. By that time, you’d have to think someone of Acuna’s stature could be headed for a $35M+ per year AAV, so that’s another steep discount. And in return, Acuna will have to figure out a way to be spend $131,000,000 minus, of course, a fairly precipitous 37% tax rate.

    This is fun. Yes, now let’s extend Ozzie.

  23. The CBA is a legally binding contract entered freely by both parties. I would think someone on about the importance of institutions would respect freely entered I to binding contracts.

  24. The max AAV for this deal – the MAX – is equal to the deal Pedro Martinez signed in 1998.

  25. If the money is mostly guaranteed I can see why a player would do it. Generational wealth and peace of mind are a good combo. Not everyone that “bets on himself” comes out ahead.

  26. I am highly embarrassed. We will be pilloried and rightly so.

    On the other hand this could just be an April Fool joke that got caught in the metadata for 24 hours. I hope so.

  27. The option years on Acuna’s extension could make for good leverage should we seek to extend him again for a few more years after that.

  28. He’ll also bank more money before the next work stoppage than he would’ve if he’d waited.

  29. @48 Are you saying you’re embarrassed because the Braves didn’t offer him a better deal and he actually accepted it because he was at a disadvantage otherwise?

    I’m just trying to make sure I understand.

    I do feel like Acuna isn’t getting a great deal because of those option years, but if he has a career resembling anything like Mike Trout (with regard to the consistency), I approach RAJ for an extension ahead of the club option years and pay the man handsomely while adding a few more years–more than RAJ would probably make but less than if he went straight to FA after year 8.

  30. Am I wrong to think that that deal is SO good for the Braves that it could become a problem?

    That’s robbery of him, IMO.

  31. @52

    I should have thought that obvious.

    Who is his agent, do we know? I hope it’s not his father with preset rights to sign for him. The Neymars of this world know all about this.

    From what we know to this point I would estimate a 50/50 chance the extension will be voided by the Commissioner if it turns out his legal representation was less than stellar.

    Racism. It only has to be in the air today, rightly so, for all hell to break loose. Stealing.

  32. @54: He can’t be robbed if he signs the deal. That’s what his agents are for.

    It’s a hell of a deal for a player with 115 games under his belt in the bigs. No doubt he’s leaving money on the table, but I think it would be unwise to turn down that much guaranteed money so early in a career.

  33. I’m a bit confused as to why some question this deal.

    Fact- Acuna’s been beyond great, but a lot can happen in eight years. The club does assume some risk, too. He could suffer any number of things, and never be the same player again. He could turn into Kyle Seager. The money’s still promised.

    Fact- From the Braves view, you can pay now, or you can pay later. Someone touched on it, but look at Betts’ arb case. Out of all the young players, RAJ is the one that doesn’t seem to carry a question.

    Fact- The club didn’t have to offer it, nor did he have to sign it. So both sides have to be happy with it. Everyone’s got a comfort point.

    It’s great to see the Braves do this though.

  34. Hard to call it racism. The Braves would be equally willing to sign any player to a deal like that. Bad representation? Maybe. Of course, I will never ever sniff anywhere near that amount of money, and I’m already older than Acuna will be when the deal expires. I do worry a little bit about how it makes us look as an organization when the final two years are one third of Trout’s AAV.

  35. @57 Why would Manfred void the deal? It’s a slippery slope when you start allowing/doing that.

    If the two parties involved are fine with the deal, it should matter not how any other party feels about it. No one is signing a 16 year old kid here.

  36. @63 I don’t believe you can use Trout as a comp, though. As great as Acuna is, Trout may be the best player ever? RAJ doesn’t have the length to his pedigree yet.

  37. Good Lord, people, the kid’s 21 and from Venezuela. His family probably has to eat dirt right now. He needs financial security now, not five years from now. He probably just bought not only his core family out of poverty but also his extended family and their extended family.

    Now the kid just has to play baseball and not have to worry about anything else. And even if he gets a career-threatening injury, he is set for life. That is the risk the Braves are taking and it’s a huge risk. That risk reduces the compensation that Acuna gets.

    Someone calculating risk into the return might be able to assess the contract as being fair to both sides. Of course, this huge risk sets the Braves up for a huge return. I hope that both sides end up being very happy with this arrangement.

  38. based on Cliff’s post @34 (thanks btw) instead of paying him $44M over 6 years, we are paying $124M over 10. in effect extending him for $80M over the final 4 years. $20M a year does not look inherently unfair. Especially since the entire $124 is guaranteed vs a relative pittance currently.

  39. Acuna was in line to make the major league minimum in ’19 and ’20, then (mostly likely) go to arbitration* for the first time in ’21, followed by three more years of arbitration ’22 – ’24 and then free agency.

    * Super 2 status – top 22 percent of players with between two and three seasons of MLB service

    Generally speaking, players who get 3 years of league minimum and then 3 years arbitration will earn something like 40% of their open market value in year 1 of arb, 60% in year 2, 80% in year 3 – sort of a phase-in process between league minimum salary and free agent wages. Super 2 players get a head start with their first arbitration at year 3 instead of year 4, so the 40/60/80 framework doesn’t quite hold.

    I don’t have the time to try to pull comparables at the moment, but let me throw out Nolan Arenado’s pay history as an example of what Acuna might have made – 2014: $500K, 2015: $500K, 2016: $5M (A1), 2017: $11.75M (A2), 2018: $17.75M (A3), then a recent massive deal: 2019: $26M, 2020-24: $35M, 2025: $32M, 2026: $27M.

    All told, Arenado is guaranteed something like $201.5M over the first 10 seasons of his Rockies career, plus another $59M the two years after that. By contrast, the Braves are on the hook for 8 years / $100M plus two team option years for $24M more.

  40. https://www.lavidabaseball.com/ronald-acuna-atlanta-braves-father/

    His agent appears to be someone named Peter Greenberg. I’m all for players getting what they are worth and I hope Acuna does over the course of his career, but if he thought he could have made more money through arb and earlier free agency, he could have always not taken the deal. Not sure what the Braves are supposed to do, bid against themselves?

    As others pointed out, if he produces then hopefully this sets the stage for a renegotiation/extension in the future.

  41. I really like this stuff for both parties. You’re basically re-writing the stupid arbitration system on a case-by-case basis based on players that deserve it. What’s not to love?

  42. @63 It’s possible you’re correct, but it’s for the wrong reasons, which makes you very wrong.

  43. Correction to @69: Arenado is guaranteed $201.5M over the first 10 seasons of his Rockies career, plus another $94M the three years after that.

  44. Great recap, Cliff. I’m one of the few on here who remember the song well. It’s not a bad song at all (but far from their best) but unfortunately it got stuck in my head all morning, and it was getting irritating.
    Fortunately for the last hour all I can hear in my head is Acuna Matata—and I’m never going to tire of that one. Ain’t no passing craze indeed.

  45. Looks like the AAF is dead. That’s kinda sad. I liked it, but I also didn’t watch that often and didn’t spend any money on it, sooooo….

  46. Rob did a great job on that extension post, @41. Not being facetious. A feather in Braves Journal’s cap.

  47. On off days, we should feature a “Chief’s Corner” syndicated column. I would love to get his take on things like free food, puppies, sunshine, the Beatles, naps.

  48. Complaining about this deal is pretty much insane, so I’m not going to.

    I will point out that it doesn’t erase or fix anything that everybody was upset about until about noon today, though.

  49. I wonder how this compares to Christian Yelich’s deal. Didn’t he also sign a deal early that looks very team favorable now? I do understand it from a player perspective, you get a whole bunch of money now that you would otherwise have to wait for, in exchange for giving the club cheaper years in your “free agency” period.

  50. @81 I do agree, actually. We committed no new money to 2019. Now, does this cost certainty make them feel better about committing a 3rd year or a 4th year or whatever the sticking point is with Kimbrel? I mean, maybe. The Super Two aspect with Acuna conceivably complicated a 3rd year for Kimbrel.

  51. I think Chief Corner’s and Adam’s POWER RANKINGS are great potential off-day posts, but at worst, they could be great embedded in the comments. So don’t talk about it; be about it.

  52. @82 Christian Yelich’s deal is insanely team-friendly. He played his rookie year in 2014 and was quite good, then in mid-March 2015 signed on for the next 7 years (’15 – ’21) at $49.57M, plus a $15M option for ’22. So… it looks like he’ll get paid only $65M for the first 9 years of his career total. That’s quite a bargain!

  53. From MLBTR chat:

    I can’t believe Acuna basically gave up the first decade of his career for a max of $124MM. Jeff and I were talking about this … Eloy can earn $85MM total on his deal and only gave up one FA season. Acuna gave up three more and only got a max of an additional $39MM? For a player of his caliber, that’s brutal.

    The $100MM guarantee is a nice, shiny round number, but he’d be a $30MM+ player in fre agency right now — and who knows where the market will be by the time he’d have actually reached that level. $35MM could be the new norm for star free agents in their prime. Maybe more. They gave up so much control to get to that symbolic $100MM deal. It’s a great contract for the Braves.

  54. Ronald Acuna is another five years from free agency. So he has two choices: take nine figures from the Braves, or go year-to-year in arbitration and wait half a decade, and hope that the free agency system will hand him the $300-$400 million that we assume he will still appear to deserve.

    He basically did what Mike Trout did: accept an underpay because the money in the hand is really convenient, plus it’s still over a hundred million dollars and that doesn’t suck. He’s got a much higher discount rate than he might, but I’m happy for him.

  55. That’s an incredible deal for the Braves… my thoughts are:

    – This is further proof the system of players not gaining free agency until 6-7 years down the road is very stupid. At the very least they have to redo the rookie scale and figure out a better way to pay guys that are putting up possibly their best years before they even hit arbitration.

    – Acuna is definitely leaving money on the table here. I suppose he and his agent knows this but he’s 20 and from Venezuela so probably sees $124 mil guaranteed and wants to take that. Fair play to him, but those two option years will be played at a massive discount that won’t be made up by buying out his rookie deal.

    – This is a good move for the Braves and the sort of thing they should do but doesn’t change the overall trajectory of the franchise. We won’t see that until they start to actually go for it and fill out the roster with actual solutions, not hit and hope prayers like we’ve seen this offseason. This deal will mean the Braves can get MVP level production at a fraction of the cost for a decade, if they don’t surround Acuna with talent that can win a world series then this is all for naught (ex. signing Nick Markakis to play RF and opening the season with Shane Carle and Luke Jackson in the pen).

  56. @83 I hope it opens the door for Kimbrel, because the Braves have much more cost certainty now.

  57. I think we’re all hoping for some sort of addition. I keep thinking that there has to be the other shoe to drop, but I felt that way when we signed Markakis and then nothing followed. We already know that AA had some sort of trade discussion involving a large contract, but that deal still hasn’t finalized/may never finalize.

  58. Anyone who says Acuna is leaving money on the table doesn’t understand risk-sharing. Frenchy turned down a similar deal to this one, IIRC, adjusted for Frenchiness. He is a big loser for having done so, though still less of a loser than Joe Simpson.

  59. @91 — Heh. As Craig Calcaterra pointed out on Twitter, I can totally see the Braves saying something like “Well, we were counting on paying Acuna $750k in 2020 and now it’s a lot more, so we can’t afford to buy any pitching. We can’t pay everyone,” etc etc.

    As good a deal as this is, it’s worth noting that they already had Acuna for dirt cheap for the next three seasons, and for relatively cheap three seasons after that, so it doesn’t really move the needle in terms of how good the team is right now, what it needs currently and going forward, or the front office’s willingness to engage on those issues. It mostly provides cost certainty, but if AA wasn’t willing to go three years + second-round draft pick for Kimbrel yesterday, I doubt that’s changed now.

    If you thought the team was a 86-win team yesterday, this move doesn’t change that evaluation at all. They have the foundation of a winning team; now they need to put in the effort — and the money, if necessary — to make sure all the pieces are there.

  60. @95 It takes 2 seconds to search “Peter Greenberg” and get this:

    https://www.forbes.com/2007/06/20/mlb-greenberg-baseball-biz_cz_ps_0622baseballagents.html#25ea684619fc

    “The Greenberg brothers are fluent in Spanish and have made inroads in recruiting and representing Latin American players, particularly those from Venezuela, who now make up 80% of their client list. On average, Greenberg clients earn almost two and a half times the salary of statistically similar players in the free agent marketplace.”

  61. @93

    I think we can safely assume Acuna has a higher ceiling in his career trajectory than Francoeur did.

  62. @99: Yes, that’s what “adjusted for Frenchiness” was meant to connote. And there’s an important point there: the higher your career expectation, the *bigger* the discount one would expect from that expectation (certainly in absolute value, and probably in percentage), because such players have way more upside to protect.

  63. And, TBH, I didn’t know Acuna was so well represented. The Greenbergs have a strong reputation, and I’m glad to see that someone chose to specialize in representing latin American players. I still find it amazing that so few coaches have jumped on the opportunity to learn spanish considering how many players enter baseball speaking barely any english. That connection with players is pretty important.

  64. Acuña hasn’t even played an entire season. It’s crazy to say he’s a $30MM player as a FA right now.

  65. How could you justify $30 mil a year to a kid who hasn’t even played a full 162?

    He’s got boatloads of talent, but he’s far from established.

  66. Acuna can get hit by a pitch and break a wrist or whatever, and never be the same player again. Is the contract still “team friendly” in that scenario? No. Risk is a two-way street.

  67. If Heyward would have accepted a contract exactly the same as this Acuña deal, he would absolutely have been worth it.

  68. It’s the option years that make the deal seem so one-sided. $17 million? I’d have guessed they’d be double that.

  69. It seems rather infantilizing to just assume that a player doesn’t know what he’s doing or is being taken advantage of by bigots just because his preference isn’t to maximize dollars above all else. Certainty is important to some people, and they have a right to put real value on it without being pilloried by those who don’t bear the risk of turning down guaranteed dollars. Good for Acuna for getting what he wanted.

  70. Yea but there’s no risk in the team option except the buyout, which presumably would have remained the same. I’m thrilled for Ronald that he’s guaranteed a hundred million dollars.

  71. The team option is the price for the guarantee – at age 20 no less. He didn’t have to take it. But I would take it. I would think pretty much everyone here would as well.

    He’s still going to make a ton on his second deal if he’s healthy and productive. Maybe renegotiating those last 2 years allows us to keep him for longer?

    I’m hoping that Harper/Machado marks the end of the superstar player reaching FA. It’s better for the fans if we have more Chipper Jones’s.

  72. It’s pretty clear two factors made this attractive to Acuna:

    1.) He signed for a low bonus. He didn’t get one of those $4 million checks that gives a player enough security to make it comfortable to wait until free agency for the big check.

    2.) That knee injury last year likely reminded him how one misstep makes this all go away forever.

    He’s got security, he can take care of his family, and he has a significant chance at one more big payday at age 30.

    This is a great deal for everyone.

  73. I can’t help but laugh at Chiefs warning of doom for signing Acuna. I have never seen anyone more skilled at finding a black cloud in the midst of a silver lining.

  74. This is a 21 year old kid from Venezuela with less than a season of major league baseball under his belt making sure he and his family are set for life. There’s nothing wrong with that.
    Well done, AA. And well done, RAJ.

  75. Congrats to the Braves and Ronald. Well done. Can’t ask for a better kid to give this contract to. Humble, genuine, loving the team, loving the game…love this kid. I hope Albies will have a strong season too and we will be able to see the two together in the Braves uniform for a long time.

  76. @108 I wouldn’t have given Heyward more than 8-10 million a year, tops. He’s got a good glove, but he’s a pedestrian hitter. I’m happy they kept Freeman over him.

  77. @120 — So was Andrelton, and Braves fans get practically suicidal when anyone mentions that trade.

  78. Definitely thinking of Bobby. I suppose I should resign myself to the fact that there will come a day where, like Skip, Pete, and Ernie, we will have to say goodbye to Bobby, Leo, Ted, etc. And for a guy like me in his early(ish) 30’s, it will have the impact that the passing of the broadcast team had on many of you.

  79. All the “holding Acuna down for 3 weeks is going to kill the Braves’ chances of extending him” takes are looking really good right now.

  80. Anyone notice that Dustin Peterson just got a GWRBI against Chapman to beat the Yankees? I love seeing the Yankees lose and still miss having Dustin as a prospect in the system. I’d rather have Dustin bringing up the bench than Joyce. And we gave him away for nothing.

  81. So I can’t believe none of us have asked the obvious question about the Acuna contract. Does it include all the Blooper Burgers he can eat? That has got to be what sold him on the deal.

  82. @121 – Generational talent at SS >>>> Elite RF defense.

    @129 – Is there anyone alive who can eat more than one of those things? “All you can eat” is a scam!

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