- Ozzie Albies had a bad second half. I don’t care.
- Ozzie Albies hasn’t been so great against right handed pitchers. I care a little bit more about that. There are a lot of right handed pitchers.
- Despite these flaws, Ozzie Albies is one of the best young players in the history of the game. Yeah. Let’s go with that angle.
But why should I believe some internet rando, you ask? You shouldn’t. But maybe something via this pre-internet rando will persuade you (h/t AAR.)
And here’s a nice little list of Ozzie’s most similar batters through age 21, according to Baseball Reference.
Rougned Odor (966.7)
Cal Ripken Jr. (966.4) *
Gregg Jefferies (946.4)
Joe Morgan (938.4) *
Bill Mazeroski (936.4) *
Ron Santo (934.1) *
Gary Sheffield (928.9)
Carlos Correa (919.1)
Roberto Alomar (918.2) *
Rafael Devers (916.6)
* – Signifies Hall of Famer
Here are the aforementioned splits:
2018 1st half .281/.318/.516, 20 HR 432 PA 93 G
2018 2nd half .226/.282/.342, 4 HR 252 PA 65 G
2018 Total .261/.305/.452, 24 HR 684 PA 158 G
Career RHP .242/.298/.419 672 PA 20 HR
Career LHP .333/.369/.542 256 PA 10 HR
Career Total .268/.317/.453 928 PA 30 HR
It’s possible that the league figured Ozzie out in the 2nd half, or that he wore down, but note that due to the lateness of the All-Star break, his “2nd half” sample size is 28 games fewer than the “1st half.” Also, Ozzie’s 2018 final average ended pretty much where I thought it would, and that reinforces my feeling that we should base Ozzie’s 2019 expectations from the larger sample size of the total season. I’ll need another season to be sold on the 20 HR power, but I’ll predict a batting average of .275 and 17 home runs.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but it’s the way to bet. Give Johan Camargo 10 starts against right handers, and otherwise get out of the man’s way.