Non-Tender Deadline Round-up

Yesterday saw the deadline to tender contracts to all players on the 40-man. Everyone currently on the 40-man were tendered contracts.

Jonny Venters signed a 1 YR, $2.25M deal. If Venters can stay healthy enough to give you 40-50 innings of middle and setup relief, $2.25M is a great price. Had Venters not had all of his injury issues, he would be a $6M+ reliever. Short of him blowing out his elbow for the 17th time, he’s a pretty good bet to give you the previously mentioned injury range. And we know he’s going to be effective. That’s never been the issue.

It’s not known yet where Arodys Vizcaino will end up on salary, but he was a non-tender candidate since he would be looking at a $4-5M salary range. Even at that range, I still don’t know why Bowman was so confident he was going to be non-tendered. Good bullpens cost money. While Vizzy has never pitched more than 57 IP in a season and has pitched less than 40 3 of the past 4 seasons, he’s 28 and he’s still a guy you have to continue to give a chance to pitch a healthy season. When healthy, he’s right where we need him to be: 3.02 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 10.0 K/9 for his career.

Adam Duvall and Sam Freeman were also tendered contracts. I’m not sure what to expect with their salaries, and it’s still possible that they could be traded to at least cover their obligations.

Our only friend Shelby Miller was non-tendered by the D-Backs. It closes that portion of the trade for the D-Backs. In 3 seasons, Shelby pitched 139 IP with a 6.35 ERA. Interestingly, he did have “only” a 4.83 FIP. No one could have predicted Shelby’s career going this direction, and while it’s still a heist for the Braves, remember that Dansby Swanson, in now 1,229 career PAs, has a .243/.314/.369 (.683 OPS) line.

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34 thoughts on “Non-Tender Deadline Round-up”

  1. The DBacks probably figured out what Dansby was going to become and tried to sell high. And they still bungled it.

  2. @1 You’d have probably given up on Ozzie Smith, too when he didn’t score over 90 on OPS+ until he was 29. You’d have traded him from SDP to STL to become a HOF SS.

    After griping about dumping Simba before he could get to 90 OPS+ consistently, I can’t imagine anyone not having more patience with Dansby.

  3. I think I’ve been pretty clear over time that I like Dansby and don’t feel moved to trade him now. He’s good and maybe will improve — I wouldn’t cherry-pick the example of Ozzie Smith, who’s obviously the exception and not the rule. Dansby may need to improve as his arb pay goes up.

    I am saying the Diamondbacks were idiots. They undervalued him and sold on him as though the world already somehow shared in the knowledge that he’d be a bust.

  4. @4 OK, I get it. A smattering of sarcasm.

    @5 Dansby is an excellent fielder and may become GG quality. Smith didn’t get his first GG until his third full season. Next year will be Dansby’s third. He has already improved his OPS+ from 68 to 88. His 115 OPS+ in his first part of a season exceeded any Andrelton has produced – ever. Dansby is 5 HRs short of what Smith produced in his entire 21 year career and he’s likely to get up to half of Andrelton’s current HR production by the end of this year. Andrelton spent his first four seasons being Mr. Pop-Up. Andrelton did not exceed .300 OBP in either of his first two full seasons in ATL while Dansby did in both.

    Right now, I’d say that Dansby is not quite the fielder Andrelton is but he is a better hitter than Andrelton at this stage in his career. If Dansby can put up a .320 OBP, .400 SLG (15 HRs), and get a GG next year then he will be a better (and cheaper) option than Andrelton. None of those three items is much of a stretch.

  5. I wonder if George Springer would be a good trade target? This is his last contract year but has two more arb years after this. The Astros don’t like him in CF but the Braves wouldn’t use him in CF. And they’ve got a lot of OFs. He’d make a great lead-off hitter for our new offense.

    Also, seems like Bauer might be a better TOR SP target than Kluber. He’d be a great add, younger than Kluber and still on the way up.

  6. Springer had a down year last year, but then again, so did both Donaldson and McCann. I think with what is now 3 of our 9 position players (the two catchers included) coming off seasons that they wish we were better (Dansby included), I would love it if the Braves got someone that they knew was going to bring in the production, even if the upside is a little less.

  7. I love Trevor Bauer. The Braves would probably be willing to give up exponentially more for Bauer than they otherwise would for Kluber. Bauer seems to also bring a lot of teaching ability to the table as well.

  8. @16 Agreed. If they punted Alabama might have been able to drive for a last minute FG but, considering Bama’s kicking game, that surely would have been a better possibility for GA.

    But didn’t I tell you guys that Jalen has improved? How about that guy? Bama did it to GA the same way twice – brought in the backup QB they hadn’t prepped for to win the game.

    I don’t know if Bama’s defense stepped up or GAs offense faded, but the result was the same. Fromm was pretty incredible all night and the GA secondary played fabulously.

    You could also tell that GA had sold out the run on defense to get pressure on Tua and it worked. Bama should have run more earlier.

    By the way. In case you weren’t aware, Tua’s younger brother matriculates next year along with Bear Bryant’s great-grandson as the next two QBs to arrive.

  9. BTW, I agree with the analysts that say that GA is still one of the top four teams in the country. No doubt in my mind.

    Cafardo seems to think the Braves are in on Kluber, Thor, and Keuchel. And still waiting on the Marlins to stop asking for Albies as part of a Realmuto deal.

  10. @20. I think the logic is that we are already betting on the health of Donaldson and McCann so we don’t want to bet on the third one.

    Honestly though, I want neither Brantley nor Markakis.

  11. Well, of course. But there have been plenty of #1s that have become Harper, Stras, Correa, etc., and there are #1s that become Justin Upton, Pat Burrell, Darrin Erstad, etc. — perfectly fine players. And then there have been complete busts. If you’re telling me Dave Stewart knew which one group he was in then you’re giving the man too much credit. But to say that Dansby Swanson was not going to be Bryce Harper even from the moment he was drafted, then, well… duh.

    The more likely thing is that Stewart thought he could “sell high” on someone with a huge draft pedigree, and he didn’t even do that.

  12. OK, I’m going to say it now even though I may have said it before. Jonathon Schoop would make a good cheap RF pickup with huge excess value potential. Although, he might be considered as more or less a duplicate of Duvall although he is younger than Duvall and he would make a good compadre for Ozzie and a good fit in the clubhouse will make him a better player. He’s in dire need of a one year, make-good contract and might be a great transition to Pache. And he will cost nothing in prospects and leaves open to spending prospects on Thor/Bauer/etc…

  13. Those guys’ teams didn’t give up on them before they got out of A ball though. Simply, something told the DBacks that they had drafted a lemon. And they were right.

  14. There is nothing wrong with Dansby. He just falls into the bucket of “too high of an expectation” that Andruw, Frenchy and Heyward all got into. Regardless of what happens with Dansby we have already won the trade easily. 1/1 doesn’t guarantee anything.

  15. the art of progression
    needs involve contrition, confession
    what did we do wrong
    denials persist, the same old song.

  16. Another possibility…… Adam Eaton might be available cheap especially if Harper re-signs with the Nats. He’d make a fantastic lead-off in front of our boppers with his .360-.390 OBP with good speed and defense.

    I read that the Braves intend to bat Donaldson – Freeman – Acuna as 2-3-4. I would think Ozzie at 5th, McFlowers at 6th. Dansby 7th and Ender at 8th or 9th. Just need a solid lead-off. I like either Springer or Eaton for that role if we could get one. Bench = Camargo, Culby, BU catcher. and Duvall. Without a lead-off type coming in, we might end up with Ender back at the top.

    If you bat Acuna – Donaldson – Freeman at 1-2-3 then you need a resurgent Duvall/Schoop type at 4 or some other power guy.

    Personally, I would reverse it and bat Acuna – Freeman – Donaldson at 2-3-4.

  17. The M’s are really trying to influence the NL East. Next thing you know they will trade Haniger to the Natspos.

  18. @31 My first thought was the same…. what do they have against us? Then I thought, hey, maybe they can stick all our rivals with their worst contracts. That’d be kinda cool.

    How much would we give up to get Haniger and Marco Gonzales???

  19. I don’t want Gonzales but I would be willing to give up quite a bit for Haniger considering the number of years under control.

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