Minors Update

Sort of a game thread.

Bryse Wilson has a 2.20 ERA in 45 innings across his last 8 starts at AA. He had two short outings in that time, but he’s pitched 7 inning four times and at least 6 innings a total of 6 times. If you’re scouting the statline, he’s ahead of Anderson, Wentz, and Muller in high minors performance even though he was taken behind all of them.

I almost went to the start that Wentz left early last night, but instead I’m going to go tonight to see if Muller looks as good in person as his statline has looked. Hopefully Wentz doesn’t have a significant injury. One pretty interesting thing is of all the pitching prospects we have, we’ve had very few go down to injury. Only Weigel has had TJ out of the 29 pitching prospects we have that were drafted or traded for since the rebuild began. Vizzy and Soroka have non-structural arm problems, Fried has had his blisters, Gohara has had his leg issues, and others have had more minor stuff. Considering how many players we’ve taken with previous injury history, that’s a bright spot.

Dany Gilbert Kiti “Touki” Toussaint has had one start at AAA since being promoted, going 6.2 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5K. Even with his dominance at AA – 11.20 K/9, 0.73 HR/9, 3.53 FIP — he’s still walking too many guys. His 3.99 BB/9 is btter than last year’s showing at AA (4.99 in 7 starts), but he will certainly need to clean that up.

Kyle Wright looks a little better than his AA ERA shows (4.10). He’s got 9.16 K/9, 3.82 BB/9, and 0.48 HR/9, so his 3.39 FIP is a little encouraging. He’s yet, though, to really dominate AA. But fortunately, he’s got a lot of guys ahead of him right now anyway.

Austin Riley has returned. He’s 12-33 with 3 BB and 8 K. 3 doubles, no home runs. .364/.421/.455. I think the Braves would be wise to be patient with him.

71 thoughts on “Minors Update”

  1. After studying things more, I am retracting any interest in Valencia even as a throw in and Suarez is too high a reach (after seeing his value ranking at FG). I still think that Asdrubel and Familia is the ideal combo for us (and Asdrubel may be the only worthy IF target of all the rentals). Since the Mets are flush with starting pitching, I might revise my proposal to something like Demeritte, Derian, Wisler, Lugbauer, and Flaherty. Wisler gives them a SP they can plug in right away if they trade Wheeler. I bet you could trade for Britton still with Tucker Davidson as the highlighter (O’s crave LH pitching) and maybe add Sims (aka a “former #1”) – if you need more, throw in quantity over quality.

    Some trade proposals at OFR. I like many of the small ones but none of the big ones. I’d do the Iglesias/Hughes deal but not with Fried. Fried will be our rotation answer this year – count on it.

  2. MLB Network Radio liked the Asdrubel and Familia package for the Mets to sell off.

    There are LOTS of relievers that will get traded at the deadline, just like every year. If we get to the deadline and we haven’t added at least two, then there should be mutiny, especially since I’m sure the Braves’ pen will blow at least one lead between now and then.

  3. The Talking Chop guys love Pache:

    4.) Cristian Pache
    There isn’t much holding Pache back from being a top 20 or even top 10 prospect in all of baseball. He grades double plus in speed, arm and defense. It’ll come down to the bat and plate discipline that that determines how bright his star shines, although his defensive acumen in center field (which is among the best in the minors) gives him a better than average chance of being a productive major leaguer even if the bat doesn’t continue to take steps forward.

    Over the course of Pache’s first two seasons, he never hit a home run. In the offseason, Pache worked on a new swing path in order to display more in game power. Now he’s hit 8 home runs, including a time where he hit home runs in back to back games. Pache has improved his OPS from .679 to .753 year over year. In addition to improving his power numbers, he’s reduced his strikeout rate 2 percentage points. Getting back to the plate discipline, it’s never been good, but it’s actually gotten worse this season where he’s sporting t a 4% BB-rate. That’ll make Jeff Francoeur happy. If Pache continues to show off the power and improve his walk rate closer to 10%, he’ll be a surefire top 10 prospect.

  4. Getting back to the plate discipline, it’s never been good, but it’s actually gotten worse this season where he’s sporting t a 4% BB-rate. That’ll make Jeff Francoeur happy. If Pache continues to show off the power and improve his walk rate closer to 10%, he’ll be a surefire top 10 prospect.

    So, if he develops a skill he’s literally never shown at any level (plate discipline) then he’ll be a superstar. K.

  5. So, if Newcomb develops a skill he’s literally never shown at any level (command) then he’ll be a superstar. K.

    It’s a big caveat, sure, but Pache is only in A+, so he definitely has plenty of time to develop. While I try to express caution on anything a player does before AA, I think it’s also fair to not say a player won’t develop a skill until they advance deep in their career. He’s 19.

  6. Am I wrong to feel like there will come a point where the Braves would be well off to sell high on a guy like Pache??

    I’m just thinking that a combination of Pache and a guy like Gohara would be a great start to a package to get a talent that will take the team to the next level.

  7. @7 No. Pache is IMO our best “others think he may be great but he probably won’t be guy”. And I will admit his rise to 8 HRs this season is very intriguing and he probably is an actual prospect. I also view Allard this way. Definite prospect, but I do wonder about his frame etc.

  8. Pache has more speed but less defensive instincts — so far — than Ender, but a 3+ WAR CF is pretty good after years of Mark Kotsay, Nate McLouth, Melvin Upton, and Effing Success. Unless you have 6+ WAR players at every position, guys that can develop into that value for league minimum ought not be overlooked.

  9. Bo 9:29 How does Acuna project in CF? Inciarte’s struggles at the plate are getting tough to swallow.
    Jeff Sullivan 9:30 It’s all just BABIP stuff. I think Inciarte is still really a 90-100 wRC+ kind of guy, and with his defense, you want to have him in there
    For his career, Inciarte’s WAR/600 stands at 2.6, and he’s 27 years old. He’s just fine

  10. The big thing with Inciarte is lefties. He is a slight plus offensive player against righties, solidly. I checked 3 year splits on him yesterday and he was .300 / .350 / .400 against righties. With his defense and baserunning, that will play.

    “Good Ender” is still not good against lefties. He could avoid a platoon on a bad team, but not on a division winning team and this team has too good of a shot at winning to let that maybe cost them a very important game.

  11. @7

    I wonder if he, Gohara and Wisler would get us Fulmer and a reliever. Or if that package gets us in on deGrom.

  12. In a more perfect world it would be reasonable to try and find Ender a platoon partner to take a breather against tough lefties. In this world, the team needs relief help more. I guess you might could use Camargo as that occasional caddie against LHP if you got Moustakas, though to this point the entire “Camargo could play OF” talking point seems to be entirely made up of “that guy looks thin and athletic, surely LF wouldn’t be that hard.”

  13. For all of the talk about how volatile pitchers are and how much safer position players are, do we not take into consideration Dansby’s struggles? How about the Mets where Conforto, Rosario, and Dominic Smith have all been inconsistent or just flat out bad so far? We’ve had mega-prospects — the surest of the surest — like Marte, George Lombard, Salty, Betemit, Mike Kelly, Jose Peraza — all fail in about a 25 year span. Kevin Maitan doesn’t look good either. Andruw’s bat was considered a disappointment.

    Ryan C’s blog gives a good rundown, and look how many position players are on there:

    https://walkoffwalk.net/2017/12/31/greatest-prospect-busts-braves-history/

    I forgot about George Lombard. I think he was the first player I remember trying to process why he wasn’t good.

  14. @13

    And the team has given no indication whatsoever that Camargo could play LF or that they would want him to.

  15. Keith Law likes Pache. On another subject, I think the Braves should sign Anibal up for next year?

  16. Well a 2018 redo of 2006 or so Matt Diaz is what you are looking for in the outfield. O. K. defensively in left.
    good (borderline elite in Diaz’ case) against lefthanders. Not a total pit of doom against righthanders. That upgrades the rest of this season by 1 to 2 wins. Who would fit this and be available?

    Then, 2 bullpen pieces add 1 win with chaining effect added.

    Then, you are knocking 90 + wins.

    If a good controlable starter comes up, then throw big stuff out there.

  17. @14, Andruw’s bat was a disappointment to who exactly? If only the current crop of prospects could be so disappointing…

    Re: Ender – he’s got one of the lowest avg exit velocities in MLB, it’s not bad BABIP luck. (I think I hate that stat more than defensive metrics…ugh).

  18. Lots of people wanted more than Andruw’s career 111 OPS+ that, as we all know, included almost no decline.

  19. @18, Correct. It isn’t BABIP, or at least not all BABIP. He’s hitting fewer line drives and more fly balls.

    We keep saying that Ender does enough well in a few areas to be a quality player — and he’s still not awful this seaon, all told — but even a little slippage in one area makes him less palatable. God knows why he’s hitting more fly balls. That’s not his game.

    I snark about pinning one’s hopes on fringy minor leaguers experiencing some success, but calling up Reed is the right move here.

  20. We already have a guy on the roster that can solve the Ender platoon issue, if we want to. Michael Reed. Give the man a chance. He’s been spectacular at Gwinnett and everywhere else in the minors and he’s only 25. Beyond that, there’s always FakeDansby and Lane Adams or even Dustin Peterson.

    Let Ender lead off against righties and Acuna lead off against lefties. Reed has been a lead off hitter all up and down the system, too.

    #2 through #5 Albies, Freeman, Markakis, Flowzuki (or Acuna if Ender is leading off). If we were to get Asdrubel, #2 through #5 would be Albies, Freeman, Asdrubel, Markakis. Acuna either ahead of Albies or behind Markakis. That is a devastating lineup. I also like the idea of hitting Ender ninth (or Reed) if they are not leading off.

    HRs and bullpen are our two main issues that need fixing.

  21. The biggest probelm with limiting playing time for either Ender or Dansby or both is that they represent our two best defenders. They need to be in the field as much as possible.

  22. 21 — He might have homered if he connected.

    23 — Agreed. Bat them 7th and 8th and they’re fine. Maybe let Reed play vs some LHPs.

  23. Tonight’s lineup:

    LF Acuña
    2b Albies
    1b Freeman
    RF Markakis
    C Suzuki
    3b Camargo
    CF Inciarte
    SS Swanson
    P Anibal

  24. Last year, Ender was an exceptionally streaky hitter. 5 out of 6 months of the season he had a BABIP 100 points different than the previous month. Up, down, up, down. This year, his BABIP is trending in the wrong direction, and as Sam notes, he’s just not hitting balls hard. But he can get these hot streaks, recover his numbers, and he ends up the same .750 OPS hitter every year.

  25. @25

    The chances of Acuna hitting five home runs tonight and ending the Natspos’s season just increased.

  26. Anybody wanna make bets on who is the first Braves hitter to take a pitch? I’ll take Markakis…….. LOL

  27. That’s kind of the point of BABIP, though. It fluctuates, and oftentimes on account of things outside of a hitter’s control. Splitting it up month by month is going to give you lots of noise.

    Ender just needs to look at some tape of when he was hitting liners and do more of that, or something.

  28. On only 3 of the top 10 batting averages leaders in 2017 did I see anything remotely close to the wild gyrations of monthly BABIP numbers as Ender. With that said, those are elite hitters, and it’s very possible average hitters will not only experience the noise in the numbers but also a little bit of streakiness, thus widening the gaps.

  29. @21 – That’s not “I’ve got money on this game” bad, that’s “I’ve got family being held hostage” bad.

  30. Michael Fulmer to the 10-day DL. It seems a lot less likely he’ll be in anyone’s trade plans this season.

  31. I like the lineup–good to get Ender out of the leadoff spot. I am not as down on Ender as others. I like that he has been walking more…UIBB% this year at 7.3% compared to 6.0% in 2017 and 7.1% in 2018. I think declining BA is more serious if accompanied by a declining walk rate–at least this situation gives me more hope for a second half rebound.

  32. Fried pitched better in his rehab start than Gohara did and now the Braves are leaning towards letting Fried start Wednesday.

  33. @31, the amazing thing is when the catcher asked for an appeal, the 1st base ump upheld the call. They both must have kidnapped family members.

  34. So this is a pretty big series, as far as any series in July can be “big”. I’d like to give Snit a pat on the back for crafting a lineup that makes sense.

  35. Acuna singles and steals a base. It’s working so far. And he saw five pitches. Great AB all around.

    And Albies doubles. Go Braves!!

  36. Yeah, DOB says hamstring tightness on Ozzie, and calls it a precautionary measure (pulling him, that is).

  37. FakeDansby doing his best Ozzie impersonation!! Way to go Charlie. He is as fast as advertised.

    Anibal had such a good last inning that he’s looking better than Stras now.

  38. And that sacrifice fly will surely please the folks at TC who think that there should be a 100 percent success rate on getting the ball in the air to the outfield with a runner on third and less than two outs.

    UPDATE: Bye-bye, Stephen! Pleasure as always!

  39. @51

    We even scored a run despite Anibal having to hit that inning, so you can’t really complain that much about not pinch hitting for him when he has just one inning to go.

  40. All of a sudden they’re playing much better fundamental baseball – including Nick’s earlier sac fly. And they’re being aggressive on the basepaths again. It’s fun to watch.

  41. Brian Snitker is aware there is such a thing as a double switch, yes?

    UPDATE: Well, we’ve now scored in this inning, too, so never mind…ha!

  42. Anyone expect Sanchez to have 1 less win, 5 less losses, average allowing over 1 less run per 9 innings and have a significantly better whip at this time than Strasberg? That is stunning. Of course Strasberg is only making 25 times more than Sanchez.

  43. The Nats would really hate a 3-game sweep. Man, I’d sure love to beat the mess out of these guys.

  44. According to ESPN stats twitter: Acuna and Soto are the first opponents under 21 to homer in the same game since 1887, and Acuna is the youngest player with a homer and 2 stolen bases in the same game since 1900.

  45. He’s focused, finally. He has found his rightful place in the order, something he now knows he can do better than anyone else. All the difference in the world.He belongs.

  46. Ozhaino Jurdy Jiandro Albies
    it is, perhaps, at moments like these
    our heart’s palpitations
    meekly suggest you go station to stations.

  47. The full value of Culbertson was on show last night. Eight instant innings of quality infield defense, then an add on homer. Batting average in this context irrelevant.

  48. Brad Hand
    was the choice yours to command?
    Changing horses mid stream
    but ignoring the League’s most lovable team

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