Anibel 3.5ish, M-Wize 2.5ish, but IWOTM (Braves 7, Mets 6)

The numbers guys would likely point out that this sort of “score 5 in the last three innings to win in a walk-off” model is unsustainable. That’s why nobody really likes the numbers guys. Those guys have no heart.

No. Really. I just cut out their hearts. I’m a sociopath.

In three games, the Mets have lost on walk-offs to Charlie Culberson and Johan Camargo. MLB.com has the box score and stuff. METSING! I’m traveling for work again but remembered it was Tuesday, so I’ve already done more than anyone thought they’d get out of me, myself included.

73 thoughts on “Anibel 3.5ish, M-Wize 2.5ish, but IWOTM (Braves 7, Mets 6)”

  1. Keith Hernandez tweet and comments are fun to read:

  2. Johan is lucky that ball carried out. It was not the no-doubter he acted like it was off the bat.

    Wisler ended up being fine last night. There’s no delusions of grandeur; at best, he’s a 5th starter. For us, he’s a long man. But he’s going to be a major leaguer for a while for someone, so while he may not be that helpful to us, he’ll end up with a couple career WAR and a journeyman career. People will keep giving him chances.

    I know this doesn’t mean much with the far stat crowd, but this team really plays well together. You can just see it on the field, in the dugout, before the game, after the game, etc. All of the anti-Snit stuff on Twitter really frustrates me. These players clearly like playing for Snit, and they have never quit on him. The game started out rough, Anibal can’t hold Nimmo on first and second, he throws the ball into centerfield, they get behind, and they recovered.

    Really looking forward to the pitching being sorted out. Some people melting down about Anibal and Wisler throwing in the same game, but at least we’re deep enough to have these guys throw. Look at the Muts. They’ve even made their own announcers crazy.

  3. Anytime Sanchez and Wiser throw in the same game and we only give up 6 runs and win, that is a huge victory. The late inning drama made it even more fun.

  4. @6 I agree 100%. While Snit may have his weaknesses, the team certainly loves playing for him and they do not ever quit. It’s nice to know that these guys are only an at bat or two away from a game changing rally and they are never out of it.

  5. And really, what do you expect? Soroka and Gohara unavailable, everyone else has thrown, no one is rested, so that’s who you have. I think they were smart to not release Anibal to at least get through a period where you’d need 6 SPs in 5 days and a couple long men. They were smart to realize one of your SPs are going to struggle, Fried was only going to go about 5 IP, and the long men would be used up.

  6. Chief,

    Can you give a name for a starting pitcher target to get in trade? And, what would YOU give for that pitcher if you were Braves GM?

  7. When I watch Wisler, I get the nagging feeling he’s on the Jason Marquis or Charlie Morton career path.

  8. I would rather have a baseball manager who the guys will run through a wall for, than an X-O guy.

    You can use all the analytics you want, at the end of the day someone has to actually play the game

  9. Jay @ 12,

    Can you prognosticate WHICH of those 2 paths Wisler is on? They are a little different.

  10. cliff, I will provide a couple SP scenarios tonight. I’m certain my fellow braves journalists have been waiting with bated breath for them. However, I will provide said manna for the esteemed masses.

    Wisler won’t compile 1/3 of the career fWAR of either Jason Marquis or Charlie Morton. Or maybe any fWAR for that matter. He’s currently at .5 WAR after 49 career starts.

    To catch Marquis, he’d need to make 872 more starts.

    To catch Morton, he’d need to make 1215 more starts.

    I’m thinking he may make 50 more starts. So, neither.

  11. I say Jason Marquis. A long, mediocre career resulting in 8.9 fWAR and 4.4 bWAR. For every pitcher like Wisler who becomes like Morton, there are about 10 Jason Marquis’.

  12. @9 You are correct, sir. That’s the formula we used early in the season to score in bunches.

    With regards to Keith Hernandez, what makes his comments even more ridiculous is that he’s acting like we “should” have some sort of stupendous bullpen – or thought we did – but the plan all along was to have a couple of vets and a bunch of up and coming rookies. He’s just being Captain Obvious.

    What’s better is that, even though the bullpen is giving up runs, they are not blowing games hand over fist. Every team blows a few but there are no Jim Johnsons this year that are going to blow 9 saves.

    The original idea was to compete next year so this year is supposed to be a testing ground. After all, what do you call rookies at or after the end of their first year? ……… Veterans

    Next year we’ll have a pen full of tried and tested veterans.

  13. @15

    For people complaining about the Sanchez’ and the Wisler’s and the Sims’ of the world toeing the rubber for us, just look at the Mets. When you don’t have depth, and you play 6 games in 5 days, you end up with Jason Vargas and his 10.62 ERA in 5 GS. I fear that a lot of the people that were saying we’d win 75 games are all of a sudden complaining that we don’t have the depth of a 100-win team.

    Look at the Mets’ roster. Aside from their top three SPs — two of which, Thor and Matz, are currently injured — every SP that has made the other 20 starts for them has an ERA over 5, and 11 of those have been made by pitchers with ERAs over 7.

  14. Keith Hernandez just made a very stupid — and yes, obvious — rant. And by doing so, he does indeed highlight that the team he announcers for, a team supposed to be in position to contend, is actually a worse team than the team he’s criticizing. So, yes, Keith, I agree with you completely, but what does that say about LOL Mets?

  15. My hopes for Wisler’s future are no higher than those of the rest of you (except maybe Chief, for whom any hope is to be avoided at all costs). But none of us had any hope for Charlie Morton at his age 25 season either. In fact, he only became this version of Charlie Morton last year. I certainly would not predict that for Wisler (or even predict a Jason Marquis-like career) but it goes to show you never can tell.
    Wilder will get plenty more opportunities to pitch at the major league level for a few years, but probably, hopefully, for another franchise.

  16. The people scoffing at the idea of Matt Wisler developing into Jason Marquis, much less Charlie Morton, would have scoffed at the idea of Jason Marquis or Charlie Morton making those developments as well. Morton, specifically, is a “no one saw that coming” guy. He was Matt Wisler for his career in Pittsburgh.

  17. @25

    By that logic, they must not be enamored with Fried either? Why do you think those guys might be getting sent down? You’re seriously demonstrating a lack of understanding of what they’re doing here.

  18. @6…Rob

    Camargo, lucky? In cold print looks absurd. It didn’t carry, it flew.

    Jay Bruce’s sprint towards the infield must have discombobulated you. It was the only thing left for him to do. Get out of Dodge.

    Exit velocity, 188mph, suppressed by MLB at the pleading of Giancarlo.

  19. Data Point
    alone it endorses whomever/whatever you wish to anoint
    a thousand though breeds trouble
    for those still attached to their non-empirical bubble.

  20. I will go ahead and help Chief out

    Braves get: Tyson Ross, Craig Stammen

    Pods get; Lucas Simms, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts and the rights to the remains of Aaron Blair.

    Ross is a FA at year’s end while Stammen has a 2.25M contract for 2019

  21. @25 It’s hard to like Wisler when you realize that he’s not going to be anything more than what he is. Or highly unlikely, anyway. He needs a fastball that’s not crap.

  22. I hope Camargo keeps the 3B job at least up to the trade deadline. Very likeable guy and nice looking swing from the left side, even if the hits aren’t falling.

  23. Morton has been on a roll this year, for sure. FWIW, Jason Marquis had a better career than Morton is likely to have (he’s already 34). Morton has yet to even pitch 180 innings in a season. That’s damnable, isn’t it? Just simply looking at career WAR between the two, it’s no comparison in favor of Marquis.

    That’s not to say that either one of them has been good in their careers. Pretty average is a good descriptor where average has been on a big decline these past 10 years…

  24. Blake Snell for Kolby Allard, Pache and Derian Cruz. I am proposing this in a vacuum as I have no idea how much control or whatever Snell has.

    If I’m Tampa, I’m thinking I’m going to lose this guy eventually, If I’m the Braves I’m thinking Allard’s barely breaking 88 MPH, Pache might never develop any power whatsoever and is a better fielding Joey Gathright and Derian Cruz is probably a better prospect than he might ever turn out to be plus Albies is a potential 15 year guy at 2B.

  25. fWAR likes Morton because it is based on FIP, while bWAR, which is mostly runs allowed and innings pitched, likes Marquis. If you ask me, bWAR is FAR superior in measuring a pitcher’s career value. (Marquis threw nearly 2,000 MLB innings, and there’s lots of value in that.)

    Anyway, I see these guys both as late bloomers who eventually had decent careers, but only after they left the Braves. I could see Wisler doing the same, maybe.

  26. Things to remember about Snell is that Tampa never sells cheap and Snell has 5 years of team control beyond this year (free agent 2023). I think you would need to throw Wright or Dansby into that deal to get them to bite.

  27. The comparisons of Wisler with Morton and Marquis don’t make any sense. Yes, they were prospects who ended up having fairly productive careers once they left the Braves. But Morton and Marquis had great stuff. Marquis could go mid 90’s with a fastball that moved a lot. Morton’s fastball was mid ’90’s without the movement, but he also had a good curve. Wisler has a pitch (slider) in need of a fastball in order to work well, and he doesn’t have the fastball. Wisler is not nearly as good as the other two.

  28. 40 — You do realize that he has been above average with the glove and is hitting .260?

  29. Julio’s been taking pitching lessons from Folty. Strikes are an endangered species.

    Zeroes on the board are nice though.

  30. With five shutout innings tonight, Vargas has brought his ERA all the way down to 8 and a half

  31. Wisler can still be a productive piece. His stuff is fairly good. Like thousands of others, it’s the location and command that’s very hit or miss. It’s not out of the question that he’ll figure something out.

    The thing with having all this young pitching is that it’s going to be very easy to give up on guys after 30 or so appearances. The fanbase and the front office have got to have patience. Easier said than done.

    Expecting every guy to come up and be Steve Avery is just setting things up for disappointment. I’d like to think we’ll get one of those. Won’t be three or four though, that’s for sure.

  32. Plane to catch, boys?

    Edit: We play at home this weekend. I guess they want to hurry up and get to the club.

  33. 1 run or 2 runs down doesn’t seem to matter tonight. We have been in old school hibernation mode since the first pitch

  34. Why would u not have lefty in bullpen ready with Teheran on 100 pitches … should have brought in lefty to game nemmo

  35. Dansby is the new Andruw around here: everything is his fault.

    For the new guys around here, Mac used to sarcastically blame everything on Andruw because of all the grief he got from some fans.

  36. Peterson holds his hands like Eric Davis. Haven’t seen that in a while. Doubt he hits like Eric Davis though.

  37. Carle is turning back into a pumpkin.

    Mets fans are really mad that they took Vargas out.

  38. Bah I need to stop watching. I’ve contributed to pretty much every bad bullpen outing the past two weeks. My. bad.

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