Miami 2, Atlanta 0

Eh, what are you gonna do? Dan Straily tossed a gem at Atlanta Friday night, throwing seven scoreless innings against the Braves while giving up only three hits. Matt Wisler, making a spot start for some reason, since Max Fried‘s spot start was rained out and Fried got shipped back to Gwinnett for Reasons, I guess, went 5 1/3, giving up 2 runs to take the loss. It wasn’t a great start by Wisler, maybe not even a good start, but it was certainly a start that was acceptably cromulent.

Atlanta’s only offense came from Nick Markakis, who went 3-4. The Braves had a chance in the 4th, when Freddie Freeman led off with a walk, and Neck doubled him to third. Tyler Flowers pop-up, an intentional pass to Ender Inciarte to load the bases with one out was followed by a strike out of The Artist Formerly Known as Jose Bautista, and a Johan Camargo fly out.

Miami scored its two runs off Wisler in the sixth, when Martin Prado was tripled in by J.T. Realmuto, who was then doubled in by Starlin Castro. The bullpens finished out the game for both teams with little drama.

Anyway, the Braves are still 7-3 in their last 10, still have the NL’s best record, and are still a half game up on the Phightin’s. Could be worse, could be raining. (Looks out the window.) Oh…..

Never Mind.

66 thoughts on “Miami 2, Atlanta 0”

  1. Nice. Nowadays, recapping losses are fewer and farther between.

    Good for Wisler.

  2. Thanks, Seat Painter.
    It wasn’t a great start, but I’d call it a good start, even very good. Through 5 it was excellent–2 hit shutout and a better than 2 to 1 strike to ball ratio. Of the three hits that chased him in the 6th (and led to the only 2 runs of the game) 2 were simple bloops that fell. Realmuto did hit a screamer to the wall in center.
    Anyway, of Wisler’s 3 starts so far, one was excellent, one was very good, and one was merely cromulent. I know his career ERA in the bigs is over 5, so no reason for irrational exuberance, but Wisler may yet be a productive big league pitcher for someone. His slider looks very good. BTW, I’m pretty sure he got the start instead of Fried because almost all of the Fish hitters are right handed.

  3. Might be an easy trade for TB if they like Christian Arroyo. He was just called up. I could see Wisler for Duffy working well for both teams.

  4. @6 Duffy’s got no power. He’s someone you might like to fill in for a long term not for a power burst. I am reconsidering Ryan’s suggestion of Danny Valencia – he’s actually been hitting both lefties and righties for once. O’s would likely jump at the chance to get Wisler and we should look at getting Britton at the same time. Besides Ryan makes the point that TB is not likely to make this kind of trade.

    If you recall, we got Demeritte from the Rangers – not likely they’d take him back although Beltre is a good trade target. With his injuries, I am beginning to question if he has anything left in the tank.

    Top trade targets should be
    Royals – Moustakas and Herrera
    Orioles – Valencia and Britton
    Rangers – Beltre and ??? Diekman?

    Interesting idea from Olney about going after Barraclough but he’d be costly because he has lots of control left.

    Anyone know why Dansby didn’t play last night? I thought they were going to actually play him one more time before recalling him.

    I also noticed that Culberson and Bautista are still being protected – they’d rather shorten the pitching staff than let either Culberson or Bautista go. When Soroka is activated, Gohara will go to Brazil. So there’s no real point at which they’ll have to make a decision until they need another pitcher or Anibal comes off the DL. We’re stuck with Bautista for a while. We may see more “odd” DL stints to game the roster.

  5. Tampa Bay is about 3 weeks removed from their 5th starter being “bullpen day”. Matt Wisler would probably be their 4th starter right now.

    I feel like the Matt Wisler apologist, but it’s remarkable how bad people think he is. This is like Sean Rodriguez all over again except this time I actually have a good point.

  6. @10

    Last night notwithstanding, it’s not like he hasn’t earned the reputation. It might be helpful to his cause if he could string together two successful starts in a row. I would say this is less like your bizarre Sean Rodriguez thing last year and more like that time when we had a group of people insisting that Kenshin Kawakami was actually pretty good. Look, there are definitely way worse AAAA spot starters one could have (or No. 6 starters, if you will). But he isn’t anything more than that, because any success is extremely fleeting at both the major league and AAA level.

  7. Wisler’s got time to be other than organizational filler. A trade that benefits both the kid and the Braves is not inconceivable, but I’d rather not give him away for nothing.

    Gohara, on the other hand, may be a stud.

  8. your bizarre Sean Rodriguez thing

    To be fair, I did finally disassemble the shrine in my spare bedroom. Things were getting out of hand.

  9. I would have to think that the Braves wouldn’t trade Gohara considering the current circumstances. He’s probably not as attractive to other teams at the moment for the Braves to get top dollar, so I doubt they’d be willing to trade him right now. At worst, wait 2 months, let him make some starts, and he’ll be more valuable. But at that point, why trade him?

  10. If they are going to deal Gohara, I’d like to hope it would be to acquire an even better more proven starting pitcher.

  11. After watching For The Love of The Game for the first time in a while, I’m convinced Billy Chapel’s 9th inning of that game is the reason for all of the pace-of-play initiatives.

  12. @18 Donny, Gohara was that deal where we got back a better prospect for Max Povse. I really hope no one is in favor of dealing him. He is awfully young and is going through a lot of unrelated distractions. He just showed us in his relief starts that he’s still capable of being a top notch pitcher. Assuming his Mother recovers well, he will get his discipline back and return to full form.

  13. @15 that sounds like a whole lot of hiring the reputation rather than the performance. Just ike Ryan Flaherty put in a good month, Danny Valencia could come in and do the same at a very low cost – probably. Valencia has always been strong against lefties, but this year he’s hitting righties too. I’d rather bring in someone who’e hitting right now rather than someone who was a star two years ago.

    The whole point is incremental improvement not to find the next HOF 3B in a deadline trade. We need someone who won’t strikeout with the bases loaded and 1 out. That was the difference last night between a win and a loss not a grand slam.

  14. @10 @13 Absolutely agree. Wisler has never been “that bad” and he is still improving. Considering the Braves’ pitching is about 10th in the majors and our fifth starter is Mike Soroka (with Gohara, Allard, and Fried in the wings), there is no doubt that Wisler could line up as a really decent 4th or 5th starter on another team, even a competitive one. The Orioles, in particular, have been searching for a back end rotation piece among a long string of AAAA pitchers. All Wisler has to do is be as good as someone like Miguel Gonzalez – the last time the O’s struck gold with a AAAA pitcher. Heck, the O’s would be thrilled to take a chance on Lucas Sims!!! Or Wes Parsons.

    Valencia is basically another Ryan Flaherty with lots of power and a lack of defense. He is a role player in a role the Braves need to fill. Compared to Bautista, he’s an All Star.

    It’s conceivable, the Braves could get Valencia and Britton without sacrificing any top 30 prospects.

  15. Here’s an opinion from Fangraphs……

    Anon21: Braves have a chasm between their standard projected ROS Win % (.474) and their season-to-date projected ROS Win % (.577). Would you take the over or under on the 83-79 projected finish?

    10:03
    Jeff Sullivan: Definitely the over. I don’t think the Braves are a juggernaut yet or anything but I don’t see them as worse than a .500 team the rest of the way

  16. Matt Wisler has thrown 17 ML innings this year.

    In that meaningless sample, he’s striking guys out a little more and walking fewer guys. That’s good. (He also isn’t having such horrible luck not stranding runners.)

    But we’re still talking a 6 K/9. He’s improving slightly upon total mediocrity. He needs to walk, like, nobody ever — what he does in AAA — to be worth trading for because just about every team in baseball has the equivalent of Matt Wisler in AAA. He’s replacement level.

  17. Tonight’s starters:

    MLB – Newcomb
    AAA – Allard
    AA – Wilson
    A+ – Anderson
    A- – Harrington

    Harrington had to go down to A- to get innings, but he’s been pitching well. I imagine when/if something happens with the A+ guys (Anderson/Wentz/Muller/Davidson) that he’ll find himself back up in A+. I’m not totally sure why Jeremy Walker is getting starts at A+ over Harrington, but whatever. It’ll sort itself out.

  18. In an even tinier sample, Gohara’s peripherals look like Wisler’s. The sample is so small as to be irrelevant.

    The giant red flag is that he’s throwing an astounding 3 MPH slower than last year. That is troubling, especially when the transition from starter to reliever should make his velocity spike if anything. Arguably, he should be in the minors finding his mechanics.

  19. just about every team in baseball

    That’s not true. First of all, there are 4 teams who have a qualifying SP with a FIP of 6 or more. Read: black holes. Two of them are the Royals and Reds, currently employing Matt Duffy and Homer Bailey. Sweet. 4 of the Reds’ starters are actually in the bottom 15 of qualifying SPs for FIP. The Rays, like I mentioned before, could certainly use Wisler. The Orioles have 2 of the bottom 25 qualifiers. The Rangers have 3 of the worst 29. Royals 3 of 26.

    I hear your point, but it’s exaggerated, thus proving there are indeed trade partners for the man’s services. You’d get Wisler with, if I’m not mistaken, 4 years of control, and he’ll make relative peanuts, maybe never even breaking $5M before FA. And if he doesn’t work out, non-tender him. And all they’d give up in return is a middle reliever or a 3B like Matt Duffy.

  20. First of all, there are 4 teams who have a qualifying SP with a FIP of 6 or more.

    So, you’re going to quibble about the definition of “just about every team in baseball”? You found 4 or 5 teams out of 30?

    Maybe more interesting to discuss: this is the same mistake I was pointing out the other day.

    No team in baseball looks at a pitcher’s current FIP — all 50 IP worth — and says, “This is what our guy is.”

    Sample size is a thing. Track record and projection are important things. As you rightly pointed out, scouting is maybe the most important thing!

    I know you mean Danny Duffy…he has a track record that Matt Wisler just doesn’t have. That track record enables the Royals to project future performance.

    I have paid Danny Duffy zero attention. Maybe a simple google search will indicate that something is wrong, he’s been injured, his mechanics are messed up and he’s talking to reporters about trying to fix it as he goes. I have no idea. The point is, in the absence of being able to observe and evaluate the player, the preponderance of statistical evidence says let Danny Duffy try to right the ship and don’t sell low for Matt Wisler!

    I hear your point, but it’s exaggerated, thus proving there are indeed trade partners for the man’s services.

    LOL. Proof? Look, there’s no better proof that no one wants Wisler than the fact that…there’s been no trade of Wisler!! You can try to slap a “Q.E.D.” on it all you want. Bring me even a hint of a whiff of a rumor! Smitty’s barber and Talking Chop comments don’t count.

    Until then… he’s making peanuts, and he’s worth peanuts! The peripherals align with the long-term performance: R-E-P-L-A-C-E-M-E-N-T L-E-V-E-L.

  21. Eh. Matt Wisler + (something else not valuable or close to the majors) for Matt Duffy.

    The replacement level innings Wisler throws are probably worth more to us than Duffy’s extra fraction of a win over Bautista/Flaherty/Camargo.

  22. Usually a little digging will help you figure out why the trade that’s obvious to you hasn’t happened yet.

    For all intents and purposes, Yonny Chirinos is Matt Wisler, and the Rays look like they’re hoping he’ll be back in a couple weeks.

  23. The replacement level innings Wisler throws are probably worth more to us

    Agreed. Wisler is valuable to a contender. I knew you’d see things my way!

    Let’s see how it plays out.

  24. @28 Yeah, I’d certainly quibble about “just about every team in baseball” because there are winning teams near the bottom of the pitching valuations such as the Cubs, Angels, Pirates, and Mariners that could all use an infusion of “replacement level” pitching. If they could find a pitcher who will give them a quality start 50% of the time, they’d all be thrilled.

    Further, the Braves could acquire a Matt Duffy or a Danny Valencia for a PTBNL…… After all, that’s how we got Carle and Tucker. We don’t even know yet if we have to give back cash or a player in those trades.

    It’s poor logic to say that Wisler won’t be or can’t be traded because he hasn’t been traded yet. Think about that; it’s ridiculous. AA hasn’t traded away anybody 25 or younger at all yet. None. He’s traded three players. Total. Matt Kemp, Jim Johnson, and Ryan Schimpf. The only other people he’s traded are “PTBNL or cash.” What if Wisler becomes the PTBNL that got Shane Carle – not bad, huh? If he’s not, let’s go get us another Shane Carle or better.

    Wisler currently has the same value this year in terms of WAR created as either Teheran or McCarthy. He is a reasonably decent trade candidate depending upon who you expect in return. Machado? No. Matt Duffy? Maybe. Valencia? For absolute certainty.

  25. Sure, if you don’t have an AAAA starter and you’re a contender, you can swap your replacement-level player with us. That’s what an eventual Wisler trade may look like. (Or he ends up as not-the-best player in a package.)

    But I imagine the replacement-level thing we need most is starter innings. Put Wisler in a package for a better starter.

    Let’s see how it plays out.

    Here’s what I’m interested in seeing: how many seasons of overly-rosy takes on Braves players will we need to fill out the 25-man roster of the Rob Cope All-Stars?

    Does Chris Withrow set up or close? What position does Sean Rodriguez start at? He can’t be just a utility guy.

  26. Looks like bad Newc showed up in the 2nd. And the Marlins’ Mendoza did a lot better than the Braves’ Mendoza did last night.

  27. @34 the last thing we need is replacement starter innings. We have that in spades right now. Fried, Gohara, Allard, and soon Anibal. We hope some of those are better than replacement. We need a solid hitter at 3B. That’s the biggest hole to fill – even replacement level would be an improvement.

  28. Yeah, I’d certainly quibble about “just about every team in baseball” because there are winning teams near the bottom of the pitching valuations such as the Cubs, Angels, Pirates, and Mariners that could all use an infusion of “replacement level” pitching. If they could find a pitcher who will give them a quality start 50% of the time, they’d all be thrilled.

    Wisler currently has the same value this year in terms of WAR created as either Teheran or McCarthy.

    You’re making the exact same small-sample-size mistake Rob is.

    I need to start treating it like what it is, which is an argument that’s not being made in good faith. You know what that last sentence I quoted is worth. No GM would buy that sales pitch, and I’m sure you don’t buy it either.

    Anyway, the worst starters I can think of in those rotations — Wade LeBlanc or Nick Tropeano — already are Matt Wisler. I don’t feel like googling these teams to point out that they’ve got more Matt Wislers already on the DL and/or in AAA. You can do it yourself.

    It’s poor logic to say that Wisler won’t be or can’t be traded because he hasn’t been traded yet. Think about that; it’s ridiculous.

    I’m not saying he won’t be traded. (In fact, I think he probably will be traded at some point.)

    I’m responding to Rob’s statement: “I hear your point, but it’s exaggerated, thus proving there are indeed trade partners for the man’s services.”

    I’m not exaggerating anything. He’s replacement level. And there’s nothing I can say or not say that could possibly prove anything about whether or not there are suitors for Wisler. Literally the only thing that could conclusively prove or disprove the point is whether or not Wisler gets traded.

    He is a reasonably decent trade candidate depending upon who you expect in return. Machado? No. Matt Duffy? Maybe. Valencia? For absolute certainty.

    Nobody wants Danny Valencia, so I suppose I agree that we have a match!

  29. @34 the last thing we need is replacement starter innings. We have that in spades right now. Fried, Gohara, Allard, and soon Anibal. We hope some of those are better than replacement. We need a solid hitter at 3B. That’s the biggest hole to fill – even replacement level would be an improvement.

    Some combo of Camargo and Flaherty is replacement level. I’m assuming starter injury or rookie inconsistency are the biggest long-term problems we face, assuming the goal is to compete this year. Like…this is just what happens with pitching.

    I don’t really have an argument with you here, though. Trading for Moustakas and Herrera is a good idea. Seeing if you can get a lesser 3B rental for a not-top prospect is also a good idea. I don’t see how anybody could disagree, and it’ll probably happen once some teams decide they can deal with the optics of selling.

  30. I guess Freddie decided everyone else was having all the fun.

    Have to note – only 2 strikeouts tonight for the hitters. Good to see everyone putting the ball in play.

  31. @ 47 – If Biddle gives my seven runs, he doesn’t deserve to pitch that second inning. Lol

  32. Camargo has an incredible arm.

    What a workmanlike game. Good SP, good RP, key hits.

  33. Today was a “waves and waves” day:

    Newcomb – 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 4 K
    Allard – 7 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 4 K
    Wilson – 5.2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 8 K
    Anderson – 5.2 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K (rain-shortened; 87 pitches)

    Touki is pitching in a AA double-header.

  34. Camargo’s walk rate has significantly improved. He has as many walks this year as last year in about a quarter of the ABs. Also improved his OPS 62 points tonight in his SSS season.

  35. Newk now has the 6th best era of all starters in the NL. With a record of 5 and 1 if he continues at his current pace he will be in the Cy Young conversation. I don’t necessarily expect this but it’s fun to dream. I sure wouldn’t have expected anything close to this at the start of the year.

  36. Camargo has a .771 OPS despite having a .261 BABIP and has only made soft contact 4.2% of the time. I cannot emphasize enough how unlucky this is. Guys that hit the ball hard (w/o over fence pop) regularly, normally carry BABIPs .030-.040 higher than .300, not lower.

  37. Glad to see Camargo has the 3B job locked down now. The team is a lot better with him there.

    I’m not opposed to improving 3B, but now the conversation becomes how much improvement. I believe Camargo will be good at 3B.

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