Yearly Predictions Post

Every year, we ask for your predictions on several stats, dates, and milestones. With a very talented but unproven roster, there are plenty of predictions to make

Braves Record: 79-83
Braves Team Leaders in:

Home RunsFreddie Freeman 31
RBI:  Freddie Freeman 100
OPS:  Freeman .950
Runs:  Ozzie Albies 100
Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Kurt Suzuki
Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Mike Foltynewicz
Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio Teheran
SavesA.J. Minter 15

Division winners:
NL East:    Nationals
NL Central:   Cubs
NL West:   Dodgers
AL East: Red Sox
AL Central: Indians
AL West:  Astros
NL Wild Cards:   Brewers, Giants
AL Wild Cards:  Yankees, Angels

Awards:

NL MVPBryce Harper
AL MVP: Giancarlo Stanton
NL Cy Young:   Jon Lester
AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber
NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
AL ROY: Gleyber Torres

NLCS– Cubs over Dodgers
ALCS- Astros over Yankees

World Series– Cubs over Astros

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120 thoughts on “Yearly Predictions Post”

  1. I guess I’m ok with the Yankees getting multiple playoff entrants so long as they all lose eventually.
    Also, does least effective starting pitcher only cover guys that pitch all year? Cuz I think Kazmir will be spectacularly ineffective, but only for a little while.

  2. Braves Record: 82-80
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freeman 34
    RBI: Freeman 105
    OPS: Freeman .975
    Runs: Ender 102
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna (I know but… who else?)
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Folty
    Saves: Vizzy 26

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Cardinals
    AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Twins

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Bryce
    AL MVP: Stanton
    NL Cy Young: Strasburg
    AL Cy Young: Sale
    NL ROY: Victor Robles
    AL ROY: Michael Kopech

    NLCS– Nats over Cubs
    ALCS- Yankees over Astros

    World Series– Yankees over Nats

    I only don’t have Acuna as ROY to break the spell from last season when we all had Dansby.

  3. Interesting predictions. I will say that if Julio is our least effective pitcher we lose closer to 90. If our young guys and Julio have better than expected seasons I think we win closer to 90. My guess is 83 and 79. I agree in general with the offensive numbers. Our season hinges on our starting pitchers imo. Our offense won’t be great but it will be good enough if our pitchers exceed expectations.

  4. Braves Record: 87-75
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freeman 35
    RBI: Freeman 95
    OPS: Acuna .950
    Runs: Albies 123
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Tylurt Flowzuki 420
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Matt Wisler
    Saves: Vizzy

    Division winners:
    NL East: Losers
    NL Central: Losers
    NL West: Losers
    AL East: Losers
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Braves, Brewers
    AL Wild Cards: Losers, Twins

    NLCS– Braves over Losers
    ALCS- Losers over Astros

    World Series– Braves over Losers

  5. Braves Record: 91-71
    Braves Team Leaders in:
    Home Runs: Freeman 47
    RBI: Freeman 115
    OPS: Freeman .950
    Runs: Albies 108
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Flowers 350
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Luiz Gohara
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
    Saves: Vizzy
    Division winners:
    NL East: Gnats
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Damn Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Braves, Brewers
    AL Wild Cards: Sawx, Angels
    NLCS– Braves over Dodgers
    ALCS- Astros over Angels
    World Series– Braves over Astros

    NL ROY: Luiz Gohara
    NL MVP: Freddie Freeman
    NL Cy: Yu Darvish
    NL Manager of the Year: Snit

    AL MVP: Andrelton Simmons
    AL Other Awards: Who cares?

  6. Best New Ballpark Food

    Taco Bell’s Taco Fries c/w Hot cheese dip…One dollar

    Problem…How to access inside

    Solution…Hide under Braves Cap(tiny size), remove, reheat in GA sun.

    Delicious.

  7. Most surprising prediction so far –

    Sam, Braves to finish 5 games over .500. Agree

    and…Acuna barely visible.

  8. Braves Record: 77-85
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 35
    RBI: Freddie Freeman 110
    OPS: Freeman .975
    Runs: Ender Inciarte 91
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Julio Teheran
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Scott Kazmir
    Saves: Vizzy 21

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Red Sox
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Cardinals, Mets
    AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Angels

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Bryce Harper
    AL MVP: Mike Trout
    NL Cy Young: Stephen Strasburg
    AL Cy Young: Chris Sale
    NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
    AL ROY: Willie Calhoun

    NLCS– Cubs over Nationals
    ALCS- Red Sox over Astros

  9. I might be talking out of two sides of my mouth a little bit with my predictions. The reason I said Julio would be the least effective is because I actually think our starting pitching will be good enough to where Julio will end up in the rear. We might have as many as 8-9 guys get 10+ starts, but there are just so many good pitchers, it seems, right now. But with that said, if our starting pitching was good enough for Julio to be the 5th best, we probably win more than the 79 games I predicted, so that’s where I’ve got a bit of a meatball sundae. If you say that Julio bounces back, and Folty and Newcomb look like they’ve turned a corner, Gohara and Fried can pitch like they did last year, and McCarthy can pitch like he did last year, then we’ve got 6 quality SPs right now. So you don’t even have room for Kazmir, and you definitely don’t have room for Soroka. So if you have that plus your position player core, then how do you not predict a high-80’s win total? Shoot, with 5 really good SPs, how do you not win 90+?

    The spring is just an ugly, putrid time with all of this optimism…

  10. Braves Record: 92-70
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie 33
    RBI: Freddie 99
    OPS: Freddie 1.010
    Runs: Ozzie 97
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Flowers
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Gohara
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
    Saves: Vizcaino 23

    Division winners:
    NL East: Braves
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Nationals, Rockies
    AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Freddie
    AL MVP: Correa
    NL Cy Young: Kershaw
    AL Cy Young: Charlie F’n Morton
    NL ROY: Lewis Brinson
    AL ROY: No one’s gonna say Ohtani?

    NLCS: Braves over Dodgers
    ALCS: Angels over Astros
    WS: Braves over Angels, count it.

  11. Ohtani’s a bust.

    A lot of people picking 90+ wins. From your lips…

    If they win 92 games, the offense will have to be better than Flowers in the clean-up spot. If Suzuki hits for the power he hit last year, he’d have to leap-frog Flowers in PAs at some point. What a waste of such a good catching duo right now.

    @1 Meant to flip-flop Sox and Yanks, but forgot to finish it off. Fixed. Thanks.

  12. (The Braves are not going to win 92 games this year.)

    I wouldn’t write off Ohtani as a pitcher. If he were able to get reps in the minors, I wouldn’t write him off as a hitter either.

  13. Acuna homer gives him 3 in the spring and a 1.249 OPS. Folty continues to not allow a run all spring.

  14. I also think that Ohtani will be a bust and have said so for a long time.

    This team isn’t going to sniff 90 wins. There are zero signs of that.

    It’ll be closer to 70 than 90. IMO.

  15. Braves Record: 84-78
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freeman 34
    RBI: Freeman 109
    OPS: Acuna 930
    Runs: Ozzie 106
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Acuna
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Newk
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
    Saves: Minter 22

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Giants
    AL Wild Cards: Angels, Twins

    Awards:

    NL MVP: FF
    AL MVP: Lindor
    NL Cy Young: Kershaw
    AL Cy Young: Sale
    NL ROY: Acuna
    AL ROY: Ohtani (I believe he will be very effective as a pitcher at least for the 1st year.)

    NLCS– Nats over Dodgers
    ALCS- Angels over Astros

    World Series– Angels over Nats (Andrelton WS MVP, Bryce cries)

  16. ESPN…Now we Know

    John Skipper
    double dipper
    what a perfect example
    hey programmer, gotta sample?

  17. Sometime in May Freddie will start batting cleanup. Acuna will move into the 3 hole for the next 12 years.

  18. Sometime in May Freddie will start batting cleanup. Acuna will move into the 3 hole for the next 12 years.

    One assumes this would coincide with Albies taking over leadoff duties and Ender dropping into the 2-hole, giving the team a S-L-R-L top four.

  19. @26: That’s a good possibility. The additions of Albies and Acuna to the top of the lineup introduce more speed than what’s been seen there for many years. Those guys on base in front of Freeman can put pressure on opposing teams’ pitching and defense. Could be quite interesting to watch.

  20. What is more valuable:

    -$4M
    -Your 4th round pick

    OR

    -Greg Holland
    -The prospect you could get at the deadline if you traded him

    Since the Braves have already lost their 3rd round pick, if I understand the rules correctly, I think they would give up a 4th round pick if they signed Holland. If it’s indeed the 4th rounder, our last 3 4th rounders have been Josh Graham, Bryse Wilson, and Freddy Tarnok. If AA is looking at the roster, and if he feels like he has a good rotation, Acuna has obviously exceeded expectations, and everyone else is looking good, maybe he commits $4M to improving the back-end of the bullpen with the best player available that you can get for $4M.

  21. When I first heard the idea of Greg Holland I thought it was crazy with the Braves situation. However, on further thought, as you said, a deadline trade could bring some value. Also, he could change the bullpen rotation and upgrade it from a C+ to a B+ bullpen. If we’re good enough to make a wildcard run, Holland and the re-worked bullpen could mean 3 or 4 wins. That would be pretty significant. I’m still on the fence, but I will support his signing if it happens.

  22. I love Minter as much as the next guy, but he’s got 63 professional innings under his belt, minor and major leagues. If you like your team, and maybe AA does, then slide everybody down a rung.

  23. If we’re doing jolly, homeristic optimism, the best I can talk myself into is 81 wins. This is not a good team but it might not be a bad one either.

    Question for the board: how much more does Acuna have to hit before the club is shamed into putting him on the opening day roster? Is there any point at which pissing him off by forcing him to ride the bus for a few weeks isn’t worth it? I get the idea that an extra year of control is worth a lot, but 2023 a long way off. And management-labor relations are certainly strained right now.

  24. Braves Record: 75-87
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 34
    RBI: Freddie Freeman 93
    OPS: Freeman .900
    Runs: Inciarte 88
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher:: Julio
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Kazmir
    Saves: A.J. Minter 12

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Mets
    AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Posey
    AL MVP: Trout
    NL Cy Young: Kershaw
    AL Cy Young: Verlander
    NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
    AL ROY: Ohanti

    NLCS– Cubs over Nats
    ALCS- Yankees over Indians

    World Series– Cubs over Yankees

  25. @32 I’d say there is no level of offensive production in ST that Acuna could produce that would shame the Braves into putting Acuna in the Opening Day lineup. They did that with JHey and the Braves lost team control of his 2016 season because they chose not to hold him in AAA for the first few weeks of his rookie season – that’s the sort of outcome that tends to stick in the minds of a franchise. I strongly doubt the Braves are going to give away a year of prime Acuna, in a year when they aren’t expected to contend and looking at a financial landscape where Atlanta is decidedly middle-tier.

    Hopefully the era of gaming playing service years (and Super-2 eligibility) will end soon, either because of a cultural shift within the league as a whole or -more likely- a change to rules regarding player service time. As it is, even contending teams with huge budgets play service games (see, Cubs with Kris Bryant after he destroyed ST to the tune of a 1.652 OPS in 2015).

  26. OK, I’ll play:

    Braves Record: 78-84
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 36
    RBI: Freddie Freeman 108
    OPS: Freeman .925
    Runs: Ender Inciarte 99
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Ronald Acuna
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Sean Newcomb
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Lucas Sims
    Saves: Arodys Vizcaino 21

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yankees
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Rockies
    AL Wild Cards: Red Sox, Angels

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Bryce Harper
    AL MVP: Francisco Lindor
    NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer
    AL Cy Young: Corey Kluber
    NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
    AL ROY: Gleyber Torres

    Dvisional Playoffs

    Yankees over Red Sox
    Indians over Astros

    Dodgers over Nats
    Cubs over D’backs

    LCS

    Indians over Yankees
    Cubs over Dodgers

    WS

    Indians over Cubs

  27. AA is here and below are my projections

    Braves Record: 75-87
    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie 36
    RBI: Freddie 109
    OPS: Freddie 987
    Runs: Inciarte 97
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Mike Soroka (in 85 Innings)
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Newcomb
    Saves: Vizcaino 25

    Division winners:
    NL East: Nattitudes
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Red Sox
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros
    NL Wild Cards: Brewers, Rockies
    AL Wild Cards: Yanks, Angels

    Awards:

    NL MVP: Kris Bryant
    AL MVP: Trout
    NL Cy Young: Scherzer
    AL Cy Young: Sale
    NL ROY: Nick Senzel
    AL ROY: Shohei Ohtani

    NLCS: Cubs over Rockies
    ALCS: Indians over Yankees
    WS: Indians win their first WS since 1948.

  28. A number of you can drop the “I know Spring Training stats are meaningless, but” act.

    You believe in them, and you know it. No need for the caveats.

  29. I’ll give it a shot.

    Braves Record: 80-82

    Braves Team Leaders in:

    Home Runs: Freddie Freeman 36
    RBI: Freddie Freeman 112
    OPS: Freeman .978
    Runs: Albies 106
    Most ABs in the Clean-up Spot: Freeman
    Most Effective Starting Pitcher: Gohara
    Least Effective Starting Pitcher: Wisler
    Saves: Vizcaino 19

    Division winners:

    NL East: Nationals
    NL Central: Cubs
    NL West: Dodgers
    AL East: Yanks
    AL Central: Indians
    AL West: Astros

    NL Wild Cards: Rockies, Brewers
    AL Wild Cards: Red Sox Twins

    Awards:
    NL MVP: Nolan Arenado
    AL MVP: Andrelton Simmons
    NL Cy Young: Kershaw
    AL Cy Young: Kluber
    NL ROY: Ronald Acuna
    AL ROY: ?

    NLCS– Rockies over Dodgers
    ALCS- Indians over Astros

  30. @40 I’m guilty – I admit it. And yes, I know it’s foolish. Still, I’m excited about Acuna and the prospect of the next/2018 wave of pitching. Just can’t help it.

  31. It could mean they think Kazmir is done. I’m sort of excited to see us cut bait on a sunk cost. That would demonstrate real growth for this franchise.

  32. I think a lot of people are within 77-83 wins, so I’m not sure where you’re coming from there. Are you seeing those are either optimistic or pessimistic? I’d say 87+ wins is wildly optimistic and 72- wins is pessimistic.

  33. I saw a few 90+ but I can’t tell if they are sarcasm, LOL.

    I picked 75 wins. I think the team is potentially marginally better. I don’t believe it to be much better than last season, and if the rotation bombs(which is possible), frankly could be much worse.

    I think there’s a spectrum of wins between 68-81 which is most likely.

  34. I didn’t realize people were taking this seriously. You can exclude my prediction if you want — except the Charlie Morton Cy Young prediction, that right there you can take to the bank.

  35. I think this is the first time I’ve predicted something higher than the 60s in 3 years. So that’s optimism.

  36. I’m looking for Ryan Schimpf to win the NL homerun title. Would you consider that wildly optimistic?

  37. @56

    I couldn’t agree with that more. In fact, the two-paragraph section that begins “My interest is as a fan…” pretty much sums up my viewpoint on the front office situation in general, not just the Acuna situation.

  38. If you don’t put the best players in your org on the field for all 162 games, you aren’t serious about winning. It’s been obvious that the Braves don’t care at all about the won/loss record as long as The Battery is a success. It’s a shame that I have to root against our real-estate ventures in order to get new ownership.

  39. Wow, I would like for Acuna to start the season with the Braves, but I think they’re making the right decision to wait. Not having him for 2 weeks could cost us 1 game. If we lose him to free agency a year earlier or sign him to a multi million dollar contract early, will cost us a lot more than 1 or 2 games. Braves are doing the right thing, the rule and the players union grip on the game should be changed.

  40. My interest as a fan is that the team be smart with regard to both the short and long term and not let emotions overwhelm reason. Of course you send him down. The decision is so incredibly obvious that this shouldn’t even really be a debate. Is modern society really so impatient that a couple more weeks waiting for the savior is such a burden on the fans?

    If you don’t like that the decision is so obvious, lobby MLB to change its rules. Don’t demand that the team you supposedly care about take a large hit in the future just so you can have a tiny immediate benefit. That kind of thinking is how you end up with 20 years of losing.

  41. @59, @60, I stand with you! On a related note, does anyone know where I can stream Gwinnett games for the first two weeks of the season?

  42. Here’s the thing. Nobody knows how the season will turn out. Will one more win be important? How many of you predicted that the Twins would take one of the wild card slots last year? There are always teams that surprise, both positively and negatively. The team’s obligation to the fans should be to win every game they can, at least while the outcome of the season is in doubt. Otherwise, what’s the point?

    If he’s a generational player, you will know before he hits the market. Whether that occurs in 2023 or 2024 doesn’t matter to my 2018 self. If the team is good, there will be money to sign him. If the team is bad, then one player doesn’t really matter (see Trout, Mike).

  43. Gwinnett has to be the best team in the International League this year. Acuna, Gohara, Soroka, Allard, Fried, Sims, Peterson, and whatever players don’t make the major league squad.

  44. @62

    “The team’s obligation to the fans should be to win every game they can…”

    Bingo, but this is a fact that the organization and a significant portion of the fanbase seem to have completely forgotten.

  45. Holy Joey Meneses, has it been one month already? Looks like it’s time for another Braves Journal re-litigation of the rebuild!

  46. Look,I know the Braves’ win total is likely to be somewhere in the 70’s. But it’s March, and I’m entitled to dream big dreams (see,e.g., UMBC over UVA). In my dream, it’s 1991 all over again. The starting pitching is dominant (Folty, Newk, Gohara, Fried make dramatic leaps forward, McCarthy is this year’s Leibrandt), the defense is much improved over last year,and several hitters have career years.
    I’ll see your 91 or 92 wins, Coop and Adam R, and raise it. 94 wins!
    Or none of that could happen and they win 67.

  47. @62, 64. The Braves should be looking to win as many games as possible in the long run. Keeping Acuna in AAA for 2 more weeks does that since the MLB has ridiculous rules. If we are all about winning, why not trade Soroka, Allard, and Anderson for 2 3 to 4 WAR veterans? We can afford it with increased attendance and we can worry about finances 2 years down the road.

  48. I’m simply saying put the players that you currently have that give you the best chance to win on the field. That shouldn’t be a controversial concept. Is there anyone who would argue that doesn’t include Acuna?

  49. REMINDER BRAVES JOURNAL FANTASY BASEBALL DRAFT IS TONIGHT, PLEASE GO TO THE LEAGUE LOBBY AND CLICK ENTER DRAFT. YOU CAN DO SO ABOUT 30 MINUTES PRIOR TO THE DRAFT.

  50. 71 – 91.

    I don’t believe in Camargo, Swanson, Ruiz, Markakis, Flowers, Suzuki, or that at least 3 pitchers we’re counting on will get more than 12 starts.

    And I don’t believe in the bullpen.

    Freeman, Albies, Acuna, Max Fried’s curveball, and the return of Folty’s Smoltzie mustache are going to be the highlights of the year. Put it in the bank.

  51. The folks who are whining that not putting Acuna on the Opening Day roster will be the same folks whining when he leaves a year earlier than possible. He’s likelier to be much more important to the Braves post-season chances in 2024 (the last of his arb years) than he is to be in 2018.

  52. Worrying about Acuna in 2024 is beyond ridiculous. If he’s a great player then they’ll have plenty of opportunity to extend him before then. It’s very likely the rules will change anyways.

    Put the best players on the field, or sell the team to someone that will.

  53. 75 is absolutely correct. The current CBA expires in 2021, and who knows what the rules will be after that. Play your best players and let the chips fall where they may.

  54. @ 70
    If I am unable to do that will my team auto draft? I manage a bar, the evening of St. Patrick’s Day is a special hell on earth requiring my full attention unfortunately.

  55. Acuna will be…25? when he hits free agency. He obviously knows that’s his prime, so I imagine it could be difficult to extend him if it doesn’t happen quickly.

  56. @70 yes it will auto draft. I will say though that I really hope we aren’t going to have all auto draft participants. It will be zero fun, and your teams will be very bad.

  57. Does anyone know why Newcombe left the game after 4.2 innings today? Was it a pitch count thing or something else?

  58. Went to the @Phils game today, and scored some behind home plate tickets, so I caught Acuna’s HR:

    Also “talked” to Dansby. I said, “Hey, honey, look, it’s Charlie Culberson! Ahhh just kidding Dansby.” He laughed and said, “He’s better looking than me.” I think that’s what he said, at least. He’s an easy guy to like.

  59. At some point it’s hard to not feel sorry for Ryan Schimpf. He is now 0 for 27 with 5 walks and 18 strikeouts playing for 2 teams this spring. As someone who could be an all or nothing hitter (never a great player) I definitely feel his pain.

  60. @ 75/ 76 – If we are taking about the option of starting Acuna now or in June, I agree fully. However, we’re only talking about 2 weeks. Could it be the difference in us going to the playoffs? Not likely, but yes. Could waiting 2 weeks save us several million dollars and help our team win several years down the road? The 2nd question is much more probable than the first. Sseeing you in mid April Ron.

  61. The “it’s not my money so why would I cheer on owners making more money” only goes so far. If you choose to be a fan of the Atlanta Braves, which plays a sport that does not have a salary cap, you choose to be a fan of a team with finite resources. Those are the facts. So, if the Cubs hold Bryant back, and the Phillies hold Scott Kingery back, and teams all over the league do the same with their players, then that’s the market we are in. So the Braves have a finite amount of money they will spend, and other teams are saving money through this means, meaning if the Braves don’t do it, they can’t use that money elsewhere. When they don’t use that money elsewhere, then the team suffers. So if you care about the Braves using, say, $25M in finite money elsewhere, then you’re for keeping Acuna down. If you don’t recognize that sheer fact, then you’re going to be against the decision. But you can’t move the goalposts and say that those constraints don’t exist. If you want to say that it shouldn’t be this way, then sure, take that stance. But if you cheer for the Braves (or any other team for that matter), then you have to recognize their individual constraints. And as a fan, if other teams are saving $25M through this type of move, I want my team to do the same. Same way I don’t want them to sign a player above market value, even though it’s not my money.

  62. Right. Saying “the Twins made the wildcard game this one time, so it could happen” is not a good argument. Yes, teams that people you don’t expect to make the playoffs do make the playoffs every season. But what are the odds that it’s going to be your team?

  63. The fun thing about a league with a bunch of auto-drafters is that it opens up the trade market in the early part of the year. When you have 17 OFs, ya know, maybe you have to make a deal or two with the team that has 14 SPs and Nick Markakis is their best OF.

    So a lot of the fantasy baseball rankings have Dansby Swanson in the 230 range. And if you’re the GM of some magical expansion draft where all players are available, maybe you wouldn’t take Dansby 230th. But the common people right before and after him in the drafts include Ohtani, Tanner Roark, Gleyber Torres, Joc Pederson, etc., so at least the fantasy world thinks that Dansby is going to have a productive year. Two hits today. Here’s hoping…

  64. You know, if Acuna would sign a 10-12m contract for his first year of FA they’d break camp with him.

  65. @92

    That same type of strategy seemed to work out well for the Rays when they extended Evan Longoria 2 weeks into his MLB career.

  66. And with my last pick of the evening, I take, of course, Mallex Smith. Great job everybody!

  67. It’s not often you can pick up a future HoFer in the 25th round. I just have an eye for these things, I guess.

  68. But the common people right before and after him in the drafts include Ohtani, Tanner Roark, Gleyber Torres, Joc Pederson, etc., so at least the fantasy world thinks that Dansby is going to have a productive year.

    A productive year in the minors? I can’t explain Roark’s low ADP, but it looks like that’s where the other three guys you listed look to be starting the season.

    You know, if Acuna would sign a 10-12m contract for his first year of FA they’d break camp with him.

    Obviously the Braves would love this. In the wake of Longoria, I’m sure every team has been trying to get a 50 percent discount on that first FA year. We’ll know in a few weeks how much sheer anxiety about finances Acuna has…something tells me he won’t be inclined to give a discount on that age 26 season. Maybe it’s the way he wears his hat.

  69. ES Blofeld 

    Chris Iannetta Col – C
    Freddie Freeman Atl – 1B,3B
    Daniel Murphy Was – 2B
    Alex Bregman Hou – 3B,SS
    Trea Turner Was – SS
    Andrew McCutchen SF – OF
    Ryan Braun Mil – OF
    Ender Inciarte Atl – OF
    Didi Gregorius NYY – SS
    Nicholas Castellanos Det – 3B,OF
    Noah Syndergaard NYM – SP
    Carlos Martínez StL – SP
    Lance McCullers Jr. Hou – SP
    Corey Knebel Mil – RP
    (Empty)
    Luiz Gohara Atl – SP
    Sean Newcomb Atl – SP
    Alex Cobb TB – SP
    Josh Bell Pit – 1B
    Eddie Rosario Min – OF
    Ian Kinsler LAA – 2B
    Michael Conforto NYM – OF
    Carlos González Col – OF
    Mallex Smith TB – OF

    I’m real heavy on OFs, and light on pitching, so I have a waiver claim out to address that. I’ll probably deal Bregman or Turner since FF5 is eligible at 3B (crazy, right?). A lot of buy-low, boom-or-bust types. ES Blofeld is looking to make a deal for world domination, folks!

  70. @103

    Pederson, Roark, and Swanson all had bad years last year. The expectation, based on their draft positions, is they’ll rebound. Ohtani is a wild card, but the draft position fits his potential out of the gate. Same with Torres, who had a bad spring but should find himself at 2B before too long. The point is that while it’s a low draft position, the comparable players should have some productive years.

  71. The expectation, based on their draft positions, is they’ll rebound.

    I don’t know what support there could be for such a strong assertion. It seems very plausible to me that someone could draft Joc Pederson thinking, “He’s not making the team. He may get leapfrogged by Alex Verdugo, so when Matt Kemp inevitably declines mid-season, he may not even get the call. That’s a real risk. But Steamer still likes him and he could get traded or maybe Chris Taylor and Matt Kemp both suck, so I’ll take a chance and just cut him if it doesn’t work out.”

    That’s less an expectation and more a wing and a prayer — and similar for Ohtani and Torres. The fantasy market is saying that Dansby, a player who is guaranteed playing time from the outset, is as valuable as players who will simply take up space on your roster when the season starts, and for who knows how long. That’s not exactly the strongest evidence out there arguing for a Dansby rebound.

  72. So I played a game of Ken Griffey Jr Baseball, a 1995 release on the super nintendo, and after finishing the game there is like a newspaper boxscore with headlines and stuff

    The main headline was “Braves sign top Cuban player”…..

    no comment

  73. @109

    He’s a shortstop. His fantasy value is tied up in the fact that he’ll play, and he’ll produce numbers that are consistent with a decent (or slightly above average or productive) shortstop. Yes, Pederson’s OPS and HR totals are interesting in the draft, but the expectation is that Dansby will play and hit like a good shortstop to keep on your fantasy bench. And yes, if Pederson gets traded, he’s attractive that he’s an OF that might re-produce his .850 OPS and give you some homers. Similarly, Dansby is attractive because he’ll hit well for a shortstop. What are we arguing?

    It’s the 230 draft slot. The 23rd spot on your roster in a 10 team leaague. It’s a guy you take a chance on, hopefully he’s got some upside. But you don’t draft a guy you think will probably give you a replacement level offense, so I think the market is less down on Dansby Swanson than some fans are. That’s all I got here.

  74. Anibal Sanchez
    “A real find!”, this Braves fan says
    We couldn’t have gotten him for less
    For three innings of Spring Training action he held the World Series Champion Houston Astros scoreless.

  75. I know Spring Training doesn’t count but today proved we’re a lot better than last year’s WS champs.

  76. Agreed. It also proved that AJ Minter, with 3 strikeouts in one inning, is easily the best relief pitcher in baseball.

  77. Anibal Sanchez started for Kazmir today, who was scratched with an injury to his jaw. Don’t know how that happened.

  78. @116 Minter is having himself a nice little spring. RH hitters swinging and missing his breaking ball is especially is fun to watch.

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