Guess That Stat UPDATE (by Bledsoe)

So the Braves record, as of this writing, is 26-49. That means the season is officially 46.3% over.

You may remember our Guess that Stat contest. Time to see how the contest is shaping up, so you can figure out how far off your guesses are off the pace.

If my math is right, the prorated, and rounded, season end projections are:

1.Braves wins56
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 69
   
2.Francoeur HRs6
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 5
   
3.Dansby Swanson PA0 (alas)
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 70
   
4.Olivera RBIs4
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 63
   
5.Wisler Ws6
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 9
   
6.Freeman IBBs19
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 17
   
7.Garcia unintentional BBs15
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 17
   
8.Foltynewicz GS13
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 12
   
9.Team HRs80
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 105
   
10.Number of new players on 25-man roster*Currently 9
 PRE-SEASON ESTIMATE: 12

* The operative date is August 15, but as of now there are 9 players who weren’t on our opening day roster.

Still a horse race. But I am clearly not going to win.

49 thoughts on “Guess That Stat UPDATE (by Bledsoe)”

  1. I think people guessed low on Folty based on ineffectiveness, not injury. Based on his performance, as long he stays healthy, he’ll pass our numbers in GS.

    Since we’ve already had two “seasons” so far (pre-Snit and post-Snit), we should see what the win total will look like, say, 2/3 through the season.

    I’m surprised krussell’s guess of negative eleventy billion for Olivera’s RBIs didn’t weigh the average down more.

  2. (Relatively) Positive Thinking Dept.

    If the Braves go 37-50 (.425 ball), they’ll avoid 100 losses.

    I’ll take that & winning the season series vs. the Mets (we’re 6-7 now).

  3. Both of those transactions are very surprising. I don’t know what they see in Cabrera, though he has pitched better the last couple months. He was brutal in the beginning, IIRC. They must have tried to trade Alexi and couldn’t. Weird.

  4. Cabrera can touch 100, which is always fun. But he also has no idea where the ball is going, which isn’t.

    I’m guessing the DFA is prelude to a trade which will essentially amount to either a salary dump or a quick pickup of a C- prospect, like when we traded Varvaro. It’s weird; he seemed to be pretty good. But they basically used him in every other game, so maybe they’re figuring that his arm was about to fall off.

  5. The DFA of Ogando is truly shocking. Just last week some random guy on the internet postulated he’d be going to the Cubs in a trade with Vizcaino. The odds of that deal happening are now vanishingly remote.

  6. Apparently he’s had an ERA in the 6’s in June. Didn’t know he had slowed down that much.

    Also, it looks like Cabrera has been on fire: 17 IP, 17 K, 6 BB, 1.59 ERA in his last 10 outings.

  7. Bud Norris is now the second oldest person on the staff at 31, with JJ being the oldest at 33. After that, everyone else is under 28, and 4 are under 25. If Bud Norris and JJ find new homes, Dario Alvarez would be the oldest pitcher on the staff. Dario Alvarez.

  8. I’m happy to see Ogando go. When he didn’t give up earned runs, he had a great tendancy to allow inherited runners to score. I can’t imagine us getting anything useful in a trade with him involved in it. Let’s hope Cabrera has figured out how to harness his substantial talent.

  9. Mauricio Cabrera can bring it. If he has shown he can not walk the farm, let’s get him ready.

  10. I’m going to lose this prediction contest because of Francouer. Ouch. It burns.

  11. When it’s all said and done, I think we’ll be closer to 69 wins than 56 – but barely. We will be way off on Olivera RBIs and new players on the 25 man roster. The jury is still out on Swanson PAs and team HRs (we’ve picked up the pace coniderably over the last month). Otherwise, I think we are collectively pretty close.

  12. You do have to wonder who we thought was going to hit those 105 HR. Pretty modest predictions, but we still look like a bunch of homers over here.

  13. I was looking at the official Columbus government site and it had a councilmember Glenn Davis. And, he looked like the former Astro. Anybody know if that is so?

  14. Wikipedia says yes, indeed, that is the same Glenn Davis. Apparently his wife is from there.

  15. Well shit. I wanted to see Gant get more starts.

    Time to stretch Jenkins back out.

  16. Isn’t the most important stat still Bruce Benedict’s age at the end of the year?

  17. After saying that Ichiro Suzuki was the leader in career stolen bases among active players, Chip then said that Ichiro is number one all-time.

    A night ago, when Freddie hit a homerun with 1 out in the bottom of the second, Chip said he hit the first pitch of the night out of the ball park.

    Why won’t he just go away?

  18. I’d like to see Markakis have a good series. I could see the Indians as a landing spot for him.

  19. We’re going to have to pay Markakis a lot of money to play somewhere else. As long as he’s not blocking someone I think we’re stuck with him.

  20. This is the first time I’ve ever seen Jenkins. He has a nifty little pickoff move- really quick to first. Sort of looks like he bends his left knee before he spins though, I thought that was a balk though I confess I am not 100% certain of the rule.

    Also, he is displaying a distressing tendency to hang breaking balls.

  21. Just tuned in. Hadn’t seen Jenkins. He just threw the worst two breaking balls I’ve ever seen and they both got hammered. Show me something Jenks!

  22. Given the way he came into the game I’ll cut him some slack.

    If Gant is DL’d are we gonna see Blair Pitch Project III ? Or will they just call Folty up right now?

  23. Casey Kelly and Joel De La Cruz are on the 40 man, I believe. They’ll have to call them both up for 1 start or use Blair, unless they use Jenkins. Folty is scheduled for one more rehab start.

  24. For anyone else who, after the Gant injury, thought “Hey, what about Manny Banuelos?” He pitched tonight actually. Threw 41 pitches in the 1st inning, allowed 5 runs, and was done.

    Hopefully something breaks right for that kid soon. He’s still just 25, but it’s shaping up to be ANOTHER lost season for him.

  25. Also, Jace Peterson needs a red light. 15 career stolen bases to 12, now 13, caught stealing. Just stop it.

  26. Banuelos needs to go to the bullpen. I don’t think he has the durability to start anyway.

  27. @37 – He needs to get healthy and get up to full speed before any kind of decision is made. I wouldn’t call it durability necessarily, it’s not like it’s been a bicep and then an oblique and then a sore shoulder. He just hasn’t had a clean and healthy elbow for 4 years now.

  28. This game sucks, but I really liked watching Jenkins pitch. I hope he ends up in Atlanta long-term. Really like this guy. And yes, that pick-off move is nasty.

  29. I said Folty belonged in the bullpen, so what do I know about Banuelos’ future?

  30. Huge respect to Gimenez for catching Jerry Layne by the forearm. He was going face first into the dirt after that shot.

  31. Sean Newcomb tonight: 6 IP, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K, 1 ER.

    Not a bad start. Two solid starts in a row. 2 walks in his last 13 innings.

  32. @42

    41.9 seconds for his first ever 400 metres at school – wow. Like him too but how to utilize that in a pitcher?

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