102 thoughts on “If you can’t say something nice don’t say anything at all game thread: Apr. 30, Astros at Braves”

  1. From the previous thread–and the reference to the Blue Oyster Cult–with Bloom’s cap, I am reminded of the third album and the song–‘Subhuman’….

  2. chipper for leadoff, chipper for leadoff..
    as i’m sure a lot of us are, i’ve been in problem solving mode and here’s what i’ve come up with…
    chipper jones is not a 3-hole hitter anymore. in fact, i’m not necessarily sure that we have a 3-hole hitter on our team, but i’d love to see this lineup a time or two this year (although it will never happen).

    chipper
    prado
    heyward
    mccann
    glaus/hinske
    escobar
    mclouth
    diaz/melky

    heyward, mccann, and prado could easily obp .370 or higher a piece while chipper will probably stay around .380-.400. the braves have tried everyone else at leadoff this year. why not chipper?

  3. My church softball team, for which I play 2nd base, won last night. At least I broke my personal losing streak. I could literally feel the tension caused by the bravos leave my body.

    Tonight, bravos get on the good side of the board.

  4. I’ve been listening the last few nights to the Reds/Astros games.
    Oswald pitched last night. Carlos Lee slept through a single to left that allowed a runner to go 1st to 3rd.
    Berkman complained of back pain.

    They are ripe for the picking.

  5. Stephen,
    I always liked “Cities on Flame” & “The Red & The Black.”

    Mac,
    Perfect.

    Cage strikes each chord like we hit with runners on base.

  6. ububba–At one point in high school the Blue Oyster Cult were my favorite band. I caught them twice in Atlanta (once with Uriah Heep) and still occasionally listen to songs such as ‘Stairway to the Stars’, ‘Hot Rails to Hell’, ‘Flaming Telescopes’ and ‘Astronomy’…

    Time to beat the Astros!

  7. how does this guy clear waivers?

    Wilfrido Perez Clears Waivers
    By Luke Adams [April 30 at 2:41pm CST]
    FRIDAY, 2:41pm: According to a team press release, Perez has cleared waivers and been outrighted to Double-A Bowie.

    TUESDAY, 2:25pm: The Orioles have designated reliever Wilfrido Perez for assignment, according to a press release. The move clears a roster spot for Alfredo Simon, whose contract the Orioles selected from Triple-A Norfolk.

    The 25-year-old Perez has spent his entire career in Baltimore’s system. Last season, he closed games for the Double-A Bowie Baysox, recording seven saves and a 1.37 ERA in 24 appearances. The left-hander has struck 11.1 batters per nine innings over the course of his minor league career, but is off to a slow start as the Baysox’ closer this year, allowing six runs and 13 baserunners in just five innings.

  8. @15,

    I don’t agree. I don’t think it’s necessarily causal, but it does suggest that there is a reason that teams have long losing streaks and it involves being not very good. How many good teams lose 10 or 12 games in a row? Plus, a long losing streak can simply put it too far out to recover. This has not happened with the Braves yet, but they better not wait too long.

  9. here’s hoping that McLouth gets back on track

    mclouth
    prado
    jones
    mccann
    glaus
    heyward
    melky
    infante

  10. Is it possible that the Nationals are a better team than the Braves? Someone made this argument to me today, and when you’ve lost 9 straight, it’s hard to fight back.

  11. Didn’t the Rays have a ridiculously long losing streak last year? Didn’t make them a bad team, but they had too much to make up.

    I still think the plan for this season was to hang out, then acquire the big bat in July. If it continues like this then there will be tough choices to be made.

  12. In baseball and in life, randomness happens. You can’t take any observed results at face value, because any observed results are just a samples–not populations.

    What are the chances that a fundamental 85-win team goes 0-9 over a 9 game stretch, for instance? A binomial distribution probability is what we want to use to answer this question. Basically, what are the chances a coin that naturally lands “heads” 85 times out of 162 (52.4691358 per cent of the time) falls on “tails” 9 straight times?

    The answer is 0.0865865 per cent of the time, or one time in every 1155 9-game samples. Since there are 18 9-game samples in a 162-game season, we’d expect a fundamental 85 win team to go 0-9 over a 9-game stretch a little more than once every 65-years. I’m making this number up, but I’ll estimate there’s an average of 12 legitimate contenders for a playoff spot each year. So, about every 5 and 1/2 years, just by chance, we’d expect a legitimate contender to go 0-9 over a 9 game stretch.

    It’s obviously better to win than to lose, and the point about digging a 9-game hole is valid, but I can’t be compelled by any observations about past samples in conjunction with six per cent of the season’s results to give up on this team’s playoff chances. Whether they win or lose tonight, whether or not they’d won some of the 5 games in a row they lost by 8 total runs, et cetera. They’re still a pretty good team, this is no less true now than it was before the season started. Their playoff chances may have taken a hit, but I don’t buy either a) no good team can lose 9 straight or b) this team is incapable of making the post season.

  13. Yes, the Rays lost 11 straight last September. Even before it started, though, they were 5 games behind the Red Sox for the Wild Card (and also behind Texas) and 12.5 behind the Yankees. Eight of those games were against the Yanks and Sox, and the rest against a Detroit team that went to the tie-breaker game in the AL Central.

    They were already unlikely to go anywhere.

  14. I had “Way to kill that rally” already written out. Glaus’ failure to completely fail is surprising.

  15. Shawn, the guy isn’t hitting his weight and he swings at what looks like ball 4. I guess in a way it worked out.

  16. Maybe my memory is faulty, but I thought the pitch was right down the middle. Regardless, he shouldn’t have been swinging.

  17. 23 — In that case, I want to see him in 2 out of every 3 games this year. Work him, Bobby.

  18. surely they’re going to change the ruling on j-hey’s at bat…that should have been a hit.

  19. Tommy doesn’t seem to ‘expand the strike zone’ when he’s ahead. He either throws something no one would swing at until the count is even, or he gets too much of the plate. Somewhere in between might be beneficial..

  20. Amazing how the entire team can get on the back of a 20 yr old…

    seems like they j-hey is gonna be on their all gonna get confidence out of nowhere

  21. @43

    I think that Heyward will probably win NL ROY, but right now Tyler Colvin and Jaime Garcia are making damn good cases too.

  22. @50

    j-hey could make a better case if his team wins 50 games and doesnt get swept by mets…

  23. I don’t think the stolen base is going to be the answer for our offensive woes. Just a hunch.

    Melky was safe, but only because of a bad tag.

  24. If you’re gonna bring a sign to the game, make sure you proofread it for spelling errors. Whoops.

  25. @52: Still giggling over Joe’s comment after the dropped Heyward HR ball: “Hey, I just got a text from your Uncle Charlie. He thinks you’re a dork.”

    Well played, Simpson.

  26. What are the chances that a fundamental 85-win team goes 0-9 over a 9 game stretch, for instance? A binomial distribution probability is what we want to use to answer this question. Basically, what are the chances a coin that naturally lands “heads” 85 times out of 162 (52.4691358 per cent of the time) falls on “tails” 9 straight times?

    The answer is 0.0865865 per cent of the time, or one time in every 1155 9-game samples

    As a bit of a math geek I feel compelled to point out that this is incorrect.

    An 85 win team’s chances of losing one game is 77/162 = .475308
    So the chances of losing nine straight are (.475308)^9 = .00123817 = 0.124% = 1 in 807.6

    It looks like the mistake was made in the initial calculation of subtracting 85 wins from 162 games and somehow getting 74.

    Since there are 18 9-game samples in a 162-game season, we’d expect a fundamental 85 win team to go 0-9 over a 9-game stretch a little more than once every 65-years.

    So this is wrong too. There are actually 153 chances during a year for a team to lose nine straight games. The samples concepts doesn’t apply here (example two consecutive samples of WWWWLLLLL LLLLWWWWW actually has a nine games losing streak in there). Each nine game segment is an opportunity for a nine game losing streak and there are 153 of them.

  27. Man, Chipper looks old. I don’t know if it’s the hip, or the quad, or the hamstring, or if he’s got an enlarged prostate, but he just looks like he’s 100 years old when he swings the bat. He hasn’t hit a ball hard since…I don’t know, the last HR against Colorado?

  28. Nitpicking the nitpick, there are 154 chances to lose 9 straight games in a single 162-game season (games 1-9, 2-10, … , 154-162).

  29. So then, if this is really an 85-win team, it should expect to suffer a 9-game losing streak just under once every five years, with a 17.37% chance of suffering such a streak within any one season. Pr(losing streak)= (1- (77/162) ^9) ^154.

    (M.S. in Statistics, UGA, 2001)

  30. To be fair to Chip, that one was at least going to hit the fence instead of the customary average-depth flyballs.

  31. To be fair to Chip, that was a HR– until Pence went and got it. That wasn’t a weak popout to deep second.

  32. They know it’s a TV game right? And that we can see that the ball would have hit the wall? I know ‘robbed him of a double’ doesn’t sound as good but we can see guys.

  33. @67- I don’t think so. That ball was at least on the yellow line. It wasn’t the bomb they make it sound like, but it was a HR.

  34. It looked like Pence caught it a little before he got to the wall, carrying it to the yellow line.

    Holy crap, we won!

  35. When did the Braves hire Garth Hudson as the stadium organist? I hear “Chest Fever” between every at bat.

  36. Yeah! We… do that thing where we made the other team lose, whatever that’s called!

  37. Jesus, take it easy Chip. I’m glad we won too but I’ve managed to restrain myself from taking a victory lap around my living room. We are still in last place.

  38. 55, 58, 60,

    Thanks for correcting that. I agree with both points.

    So, basically, it looks like we could reasonably expect 2 contenders to suffer a 9-game losing streak in any year. That’s about what I anticipated, it makes sense my methodology was wrong.

  39. Rome and Gwinnett both won and like the big boys both had 2 homers in their games. Now that’s a statistical rarity. :-)

  40. Hey…. Is it weird that the last Braves at-bat before the losing streak was a McClouth home run, and the first Braves at-bat ending the streak is a McClouth homerun?

  41. Is Bobby smart enough to leave Nate at leadoff for more than just one or two more games? IM guessing his next 0-4 night will have him hitting 8th again

  42. Yahoo, the streak is dead.

    Slightly ironic because I just came back from sitting shiva at a friend’s place (for his elderly dad).

    And, in between devouring heaping mounds of brisket & marble cake, what was the family discussing? The Yankees & the shortcomings of Javier Vazquez.

    Let’s go for 2 in a row, y’all.

    stephen,
    “Astronomy” is a big fave for me, too. I think I saw them about 4 times as a teen. Quite a laser light show.

  43. if he apologizes, why is it “jackassery”?

    on a side note: heyward, at the least, should have been 2-4. in the first inning, the defense had a shift on, the ss had to backhand the ball up the left side of the middle, booted it for 1/2 a sec, picked the ball up and threw to first. jason was already well past the bag. calling that an error was poor judgment.

  44. @93:

    “Brian Jordan apologized to former teammate Chipper Jones after recent comments he made on a nationally syndicated radio show.”

    Then you have:

    Jordan said Friday that didn’t necessarily apologize for his comments – that Jones should train harder and stretch more to avoid injuries – but rather that the Braves third baseman had to deal with the fallout.

    It seems confusing and ridiculous to me. So, he’s not really sorry for criticizing Chipper over a radio show, he’s just sorry that Chipper had to be in New York just after the comments. Whuhh….

  45. Who cares about Brian Jordan?

    And Chipper really needs to start thinking about retirement. Maybe he can replace TP!

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