131 thoughts on “SEC Picks”

  1. ububba;
    Please don’t let the weekend pass without giving us your take on the Miami music scene!
    Miami is marketing itself as a way to visit Rio without leaving the country.
    It’s gotta be more than South Beach.

  2. Big game for the Auburn Tigers – it would totally make the season to come away with a W

  3. Thanks for the Dock Ellis link, url. For those interested in the late Mr. Ellis, there’s a pretty good book by Donald Honig called “Dock Ellis in the Country of Baseball.”

    Kevin,
    Miami is bit of a music mecca, but more for electronic-music DJs & crazy nightclubs. DJs like Cedric Gervais & Oscar G are big here, along with MCs like Pitbull. Of course, there’s plenty of Latin & Euro flavor.

    Live music isn’t big here like it is in places like Austin. I mean, I’ve seen 1 or 2 original band here in 20+ years (Best one: Meat Puppets, Cameo Theater, 1987).

    For what I do, it’s great because of the vibrant DJ & club scene, which is amazing. But it’s not like you’re going to run into the next Townes Van Zandt or anything.

  4. Skip Carey is the tube. MLB Network is replaying the 2004 game against the Brewers where Ben Sheets struck out eighteen Braves.

    And I must digress. My Dogs probably won’t beat Auburn even though they are playing between the hedges at home.

  5. From the Capital Avenue club for the mentally unstable:

    The ‘09 Overachievers

    Jair Jurrjens – This one’s as much of a sure thing as there is. Jurrjens posted a 4.44 xFIP and a 2.60 ERA. Jurrjens benefited from an unsustainable 79.4% LOB% and a most likely unsustainable .274 BABIP. Expect regression from Jurrjens in 2010 to the tune of a full run. And that might not be enough. It’s absurd how lucky Jurrjens was in 2009 and in all likelihood, that ain’t going to continue. When you hear people suggesting the Braves trade Jurrjens, this is what they’re talking about.

    I must say, P.W.hjort has outdone himself on this one.

    Hey buddy, when JJ puts up another near ACE quality pitching performance in 2010, I’m gonna rub your face in it. Don’t say you weren’t warned or chastised for putting this nonsense on the Internet.

  6. Commenting where, Mac?

    Auburn 14 Dogs 0, it’s ugly already.

    And then Georgia scores on a bomb. I’m eating crow.

  7. coach is single-handedly destroying braves blogging. HE’S EVERYWHERE!!!! it’s seriously becoming an issue. ajc…coach…bravesjournal…coach….chop-n-change….coach…pw’s site….coach busted.

    every blog its the same. all he does is insult people for disagreeing with him. do you think that only 12 posts on a college football saturday (only 9 non-coach posts) to be a little unusual? i do.

    and i’m sure i will be insulted. waiting…

  8. coach’s last post on chop-n-change…

    “Tom,know why can’t you come up with a better idea and why you insist on arguing with every I say?

    I know why. Because you’re just as ignorant as ninety other percent of the people who blog, of whom rather sit back and play GOTCHA or KEYBOARD COMMANDO. Come up with a better idea than mine or shut the hell up.

    And further more, you don’t have one clue as to what the Phillies will or won’t do. Does Cliff Lee ring any bells? The Phillies traded five players for him and Ben Francisco and yet you think they would have no interest in Vazquez for two or three more prospects? Ignorance is bliss on your part.”

    hopefully this is 2 down 2 to go.

  9. Wow, I have my own personal internet stalker.

    Hey, troll, there’s a place for scum like you. It’s called prison.

  10. ububba,
    Look for a Jesse Jackson show the next time you’re in Miami. He’s a friend of a friend, and he’s pretty freaking great. And he plays around Miami a lot.

  11. And furthermore, this is America where all opinion is welcome. Agree or disagree, Democracy allows for the free and open discussion of all things pertinent. If you don’t like it, get the hell out of my damn country!

    Censorship is the tool of socialism or as we used to call it, Communism. Those who would attempt to stop open discourse are the enemies of freedom itself.

    p.s. don’t bring a knife to a gun fight or you will get your ass shot off every time.

  12. right stu, lets ban free speech. Hell, lets ban the Bible and chuck the Constitution right out the window. Ban it all…… and slip on the jack boots, raise the hammer and sickel.

    Now who is making sense?

  13. Mac, you’re annoyed? And I fought to defend my country against the very thing I have to put with on a daily basis here in lala land. Go figure.

  14. As for Mac himself, when I’m attacked, he says nothing. When I fire back, he gets annoyed.

    Dude, you have zero credibility with me. Take sides if you must but just remember this little piece of wisdom that’s about to fly right over your head.

    Democrat or Republican, if you are…….you are part of the reason/problem this great country has gone to hell in a hand basket. Hook, line and sinker. Your the sucker who swallowed the bait.

    When the shooting reaches your front door, don’t say I didn’t warm you.

  15. Rabble rabble rabble!!!

    Tech won and is going to the ACC Championship, and I think all can agree that that is the most important thing that happened today.

  16. @28

    Lol.

    Ya know, I don’t post here too often, but I had always wondered why this coach guy got such a bad rap. I had read a few of his pro-francoeur posts, but never really understood the animosity towards him. Thanks for clearing things up for me Coach. 27 was a gem.

  17. braves14’s SEC bowl projections:

    MNC game: Florida
    Sugar: Alabama
    Capital One: Ole Miss (I predict they’ll beat LSU)
    Cotton: LSU
    Outback: Tennessee
    Chic-Fil-A: Georgia
    Music City: Auburn
    Liberty: Arkansas
    Independence: USC
    Papajohn’s.com: Kentucky

  18. Add me to the list of people who are also tired of the Coach phenomenon. If there’s something going on in my life where I can’t get internet access, I don’t get to the site much. But there’s nothing hindering my internet access, and I still don’t wanna read this site right now. That’s how bad he is.

    We sat through Landogarner, and Gadfly, and even the sometimes hilarious Jon K, but Coach must go. There’s only so much page down you can do…

  19. If someone invites you into their home, you don’t take a dump on the carpet. Them’s called “manners.”

  20. Wait, people thought I was funny?! haha Like Frank Costanza said when he decided to start cooking again…I’M BACK BABYYYYY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  21. I bet Mac just got that little throw up taste in his mouth when he saw my name pop up again after my hiatus

  22. “When you mention Jeff Francoeur’s name”, one beat writer reported, “the Mets get all giddy”.

    I know they’ve suffered enough this past season, but I’m dying to watch this potential train wreck.

  23. Coach’s post at #20 is really funny. I am not trying to create a huge debate or to attack anyone, but If you (Coach) really think that there is nothing going against freedom of speech, or no censorship in the US, then you should never live abroad. You’d probably have a seizure when you’d realize some things about your country from an external perspective.

  24. 36 – You’re overvaluing Tenn and UGA big time. Neither are even bowl eligible yet. UGA is not sniffing the Chik-fil-A bowl unless they win out. Same with Tennessee.

  25. Tennessee should win their remaining games against Kentucky and Vandy and they beat Georgia. The Outback Bowl has to pick an East team.

    Georgia should have 7 wins at the end of the year, which would likely be as many as the other teams in contention for that bowl, and they would be a big draw as the home state team.

  26. The Falcons are really starting to piss me off. There is no excuse for losing that game today. If we do half of the little things right, we win that game easy. Within about a five-minute span, we did a quick snap QB sneak that failed miserably; missed a chip shot FG where both Koenen (the holder) and Elam performed like they were in a comedy act of some sort; failed to block the punter, which would’ve resulted in an easy punt return TD; threw an INT into double coverage when we had the ball at the 50 with four minutes left, needing only an FG to win (although given the outcome of the last one, maybe Ryan had a point forcing that ball); and let their RB go untouched for the icing TD needing only one more stop to force them to punt again. A truly pathetic loss, frankly.

  27. I think after Tennessee’s game they are headed to the Peach Bowl. If they lose Kentucky or Vandy, then it is the Music City. I the the Outback Bowl bid died in Oxford yesterday.

  28. Also, the Outback Bowl doesn’t have to pick an East team. They just get first choice of the remaining East teams (after the BCS and Capital One are done), and the Cotton Bowl gets first choice of remaining West teams. But they can take a West team that hasn’t been picked yet. So if, following your predictions to that point (Capital One takes Ole Miss, Cotton takes LSU), the Outback decides they want Auburn or Arkansas instead of UT, Georgia, Carolina or Kentucky, they can do that.

  29. Coach is one of those guys who tries to correct everyone who is wrong on the internet. When he is not here I am sure he is over at the Politico fixing America. Then he moves to TMZ to fix all the problems in Hollywood. Then back here.

    Who wants to chip in and get him some lovin?

  30. @37

    Conspiracy Theory Alert:

    They are the same person in real life. Probably using a proxy.

  31. 54 — Yeah, but they never do that. Surely they’d pick a 7 win East team (UT or UGA) over a 7 win West team (Auburn or Arkansas).

  32. Don’t rule yourself out of the Outback. You along with UGA should finish with 7 wins, and you beat UGA. USC could also finish with 7 wins, but went to the Outback last year, and lost to UT and UGA.

  33. I think Ole Miss is headed to the Outback
    Here is how I see it:

    Bama- Title game
    Florida- Sugar
    LSU- capital One
    Ole Miss- Outback
    Arkansas- Cotton
    Tennessee- Chic-fil-a
    Georgia-Music City
    Auburn- Liberty
    Kentucky-Papa Johns
    South Carolina-Independence

  34. Texas/Alabama national championship will be a war. Two mega defenses frothing at the mouth. I know Texas has outstanding special teams. How are Bama’s?

  35. I’m thinking specifically of protecting the punter in a tex/bama game because i see a punt-a-thon.

  36. Is Florida’s defense chopped liver? After all, Florida’s allowed the least points per game and yards in the country. I’m curious to hear how BraveFanInChi is so convinced Alabama will be in the national championship.

  37. Who knows who will win the SECCG, but I think Bama’s the better team, but not by much. Statistically it’s almost a dead heat with Fl averaging about 10 yards more per game on offense and giving up about 8 less per game on defense. However this is aided by opening season wins over Charleston Southern (62-3) and Troy (56-6). Alabama has also played a few cream puffs, but the opener with Va Tech (even with the Fla/Fla State game at the end of the year) gives Bama a slightly tougher out of conference schedule. I also think Bama’s in conference schedule has been slightly tougher. Bama will play Auburn and Ole Miss to Florida’s Georgia and Vanderbilt. All other SEC games are the same and UT, Ark, Miss State and South Carolina have played Fla close. Bama’s only close games in the SEC (10 points or less) have been against UT and LSU.

    From what I’ve seen I think Bama’s defense is better than Florida. I think Bama’s secondary is the best I’ve seen this year. They have incredible hands and good reactions to the ball. While Tebow is obviously the better qb, Bama’s got the better running back (Ingram) and more break away threats in my opinion.

    Other than that, I don’t have too many opinions about the Ala/Fla game (-; Whatever the case, I think it will be an extremely close game.

  38. I was slightly off in my yards per game totals

    Total Offense – Florida 428.7 Alabama 417.6 (11.1 ypg diff)

    Total defense – Florida 233.9 Alabama 239.3 (5.4 ypg diff)

    Statistically it’s pretty much a dead heat! Florida plays FIU this weekend and Alabama has Chattanooga. Both teams will get a chance to pad their stats a little on both sides of the ball.

  39. Sorry Smitty, but I don’t think I’ll compare the stats and the schedule between Alabama and Chattanooga. Let’s just say I don’t think the Mocs have played an opponent quite the caliber of Alabama. No offense, but most football analysts rate the SEC a little higher than the Southern Conference – although I’m sure it’s a good conference.

  40. UT players are giving the locals all they can handle with their pellet guns and their get away vehicles (Toyota Prius)

    btw, anyone watching the Colts/Pats? Anyone believe NE just went for it on 4th and 2? Cmon Colts

  41. As a Tennessee fan who lives in Atlanta, I wish it weren’t so, Smitty, but if the Chick-fil-A has the choice of Tennessee or Georgia, there is zero chance they’re picking Tennessee. Just like if the Vols are on the table when the Music City picks, there’s zero chance of anyone else being picked there. For this reason, I would say the most likely spot for Tennessee is the Music City unless Georgia loses to both Kentucky and Georgia Tech, or the Outback somehow takes us instead of an Auburn team that beat us, has a better record, is closer geographically and was there less recently, or an Ole Miss team that has all of that stuff except for the geography thing. And frankly, if Georgia beats Georgia Tech, they jump ahead of us for that, too.

    My predictions (keep in mind I do not think Georgia will beat Georgia Tech):
    NC Game-Alabama/Flordia winner
    Sugar-Alabama/Florida loser
    Capital One-LSU
    Cotton-Ole Miss
    Outback-Auburn
    Chick-fil-A-Georgia
    Liberty-Arkansas
    Music City-Tennessee
    Independence-South Carolina
    Papajohns.com-Kentucky

    You may ask why Tennessee wouldn’t be in the Liberty. Well, the Liberty and the Music City pick at the same time with the help of the SEC office (unless their picks are different, then they just get who they want). So, assuming the Liberty and Music City both put a request in for Tennessee, my thought is the SEC will give the Liberty Arkansas with Little Rock two hours away, and will let the Music City have Tennessee.

  42. So NL ROY is announced soon, and I gotta say I don’t at all understand the love affair with Chris Coghlan. It’s his age 24 season, never really tore up the minors except when he was a year or two older than the competition. I know voters flip for batting average, and his is definitely up there, but Hanson had 11 wins in a shortened season, and that has to play pretty well too.

    Maybe it’s home-team sentiment, I dunno, and I’m sure he’ll end up as a very solid day-to-day major leaguer, but I really can’t see how his season or the likely arc of his career compares with Hanson’s.

  43. Rusty S. @42

    Genius!

    (I thought somebody should give you props for one of the most criminally underrated posts of the year.)

    EDIT: Speeling.

  44. Hanson, Happ & McCutchen may have better careers, but it’s hard not to give it to Coghlan. He played a near-full season & his offensive numbers were terrific. A lead-off guy with a .390 OBP is really what you’re looking for.

  45. @70

    It’s hard to make a call on the SECCG because the two teams are so evenly matched. Anybody predicting a winner probably has a bias. I don’t have anymore predictive value than anyone else. The SECCG will be a defensive struggle as will the national championship game with Texas. All three teams are very evenly matched with superior defenses. I’ll take the under in both games.

  46. So much talk for bowls and Ole Miss.

    I’m saying the Rebels are headed to Shreveport. Its the last year the Indy bowl has a contract with the SEC. It would be destiny for us to play the last SEC Indy bowl.

  47. Do you enjoy watching Mark Ingram run as much as I do?
    Not trying to hurt anybody’s feelings, but I think he’d look great running on Sundays next year.

  48. Coach,

    You do realize, don’t you, that if Mac decided to ban you from this blog, he is perfectly within his rights to do so? With all your bullshit about free speech and socialism, you don’t know the first thing about either one. Mac is right; as a non-government actor, he can do anything he damn well pleases with your asinine comments. You are just a turd in the punch bowl. I think it’s a remarkable tribute to Mac’s committment to free expression that he still allows you to come on and continue to insult everyone that disagrees with you and generally make things unpleasant.

    As for things that are making this country go to hell in a handbasket, it’s people like you that care about nothing but hearing themeselves talk. It’s people like you that are destroying civility and rational discourse. You talk about free speech, but people also have the right not to listen to annoying little pricks like you.

  49. Also, wow, Happ and Coghlan were pretty close, but then Hanson was a far distant third. Thought it would be a little closer than that.

  50. I don’t have a problem with the fact that Hanson finished third in the voting. ROY is about this year’s performance not who will have the best career. What I do have a problem with is the fact that he was only listed on 17 of 32 ballots. Almost half of the voters wouldn’t put him in the top 3?

  51. There’s no way that Happ was that much better than Hanson — if he was indeed better, which I doubt. I don’t see how you could name one on your ballot and not the other.

  52. I think Hanson’s late start in 2009 probably hurt his chances for ROY, but it will make the Braves’ life a little easier when it’s time for arbitration.

    Coghlan is very deserving of the award and looks like a complete player. I remember Joe and/or Boog predicting he’d win it too.

    Let’s hope that Happ had so many more votes than Hanson because MLB overvalues W-L.

    (To any GMs trolling Braves Journal: Hey, we’ve got this great pitcher who had FIFTEEN wins this year! You can have him!)

  53. I don’t know much about the AL Rookie of the Year race, and maybe this Oakland reliever deserved it. But I do know that it must’ve been a pretty down year for rookies in the AL if a relief pitcher won the Rookie of the Year award.

  54. I believe DeRosa is a free agent. If true, anybody interested?

    Do we have any good answers at 3B if Chipper goes down?

  55. Smitty seems to be assuming a win over UK.

    Hey, twenty-five years in a row proves nuthin! Nuthin, I tellya!

  56. Chipper Jones v. Hiedo Nomo, who got the best of that one?

    I don’t think Chipper is sweating the ROY slight. Hanson will be the same way. He is the closest thing to automatic the Braves have ever had.

    BTW – I think AJ Happ and Coughlin were really good this year too. All were deserving.

  57. Inspired by Chone: Statistical question.

    What is “R150”? (I took it as something like runs created per 150 plate appearances).

    How is it calculated?

    It had a negative number for Matt Diaz and he hasn’t been and won’t be a negative offensive producer.

    Also, they REALLY dropped Diaz off. Below his 4 years of ML action numbers. Now IF he plays everyday and gets more AB’s against righhanders, he will drop some. But he has done as good as they say against just righthanders since the Braves got him contacts.

  58. Odds on this for most amazing prediction of Chone (I realize itis weighted averag of the past, but that is still awfully counter intuitive).

    Most games played by a Braves position player: Brian McCann at 142. I take the under. Besides that, somebody (McLouth, Yunel, maybe) ought to play more games than the starting catcher. Somebody. Please.

  59. 101,

    What is “R150″? (I took it as something like runs created per 150 plate appearances).

    It’s CHONE’s run-value metric (in the tradition of RAR, Runs Created, BaseRuns, etc..) per 150 games.

    How is it calculated?

    No idea. It’s likely too complicated to explain, anyway. Those metrics are usually extremely complex.

    It had a negative number for Matt Diaz and he hasn’t been and won’t be a negative offensive producer.

    Also, they REALLY dropped Diaz off. Below his 4 years of ML action numbers. Now IF he plays everyday and gets more AB’s against righhanders, he will drop some. But he has done as good as they say against just righthanders since the Braves got him contacts.

    All of Matt Diaz’s success has been BABIP-driven. He has a well below-average career walk rate (5.1%) and a career .149 ISO, but a .817 OPS thanks to a .313 AVG thanks to a .362 BABIP. Is this sustainable? I don’t know. But BABIP is a very volatile statistic. It’s more than simply possible his BABIP is a fluke, though, and the projection system regresses his BABIP to the mean accordingly.

    Using projection systems effectively involves understanding their limitations. The inability to predict whether or not certain parts of a player’s production is sustainable is certainly one of them–especially in this case.

  60. I believe I read recently that CHONE has been the best (by a fairly wide margin) predictor among those systems in recent years. For whatever that’s worth to you.

  61. if CHONE is right our offense is going to be brutal next season. Yunel will be leading in avg at .293 and Freeman is going to have a very disappointing season

  62. csg,

    Actually CHONE projects McLouth returning to what he did before coming to the Braves, which is big as that is one piece we can’t easily replace or platoon or “play the hot hand” around. Also, CHONE thinks Prado was mostly “for real” as it has him at 800 OPS.

    They also didn’t have Church or LaRoche (maybe a few others) but had arb eligible potential non tender KJ.

    Except for Diaz, I thought they had pretty good numbers. And those numbers, if they are for the whole year and if the pitching is similar to the last 2/3rds of the season, that lineup would get 90 or more wins.

  63. also csg,

    Nobody is expecting Freeman to be at ML level next year. That is what he would do if he was at ML level and Chone’s prediction of his plate appearances and games. If that is his current level, he won’t be playing in ATL this year.

  64. ESPN.com’s NBA Trade Machine says a swap of Jamal Crawford, Josh Smith, and Jeff Teague for Dwight Howard and Jameer Nelson works, financially, so I don’t see why the Hawks shouldn’t make it happen.

  65. In all seriousness, how many first round picks would it take in addition to Teague, Crawford, and Evans for the Hawks to get Paul, Julian Wright, and Devin & Bobby Brown from the Hornets?

    Yes, I am bored.

  66. We’d have to be given a window to negotiate a contract extension, but I think it could work from our perspective.

    We’d probably need to get another starter somehow as I’d still trade Lowe for salary relief.

  67. @82,

    Hanson – RAR 24.5, WAR 2.6
    Coghlan – RAR 22.5, WAR 2.3
    Happ – RAR 17.4, WAR 1.8

    Coghlan did in fact have an excellent rookie season with the bat; but he was awful defensively: 11.2 runs below average in fact…for comparison sake garret anderson was 11.8 runs below average…..

  68. Ahem.

    DeRosa is a free agent. Anybody interested?

    Do we have a decent answer at 3B if Chipper goes down?

  69. if any of youse guys knows anyone that has an old bronco for sale (’66-’77), will you please let me know. thanks. francoeur sucks.

  70. The Atlanta Hawks, the most overrated team in the NBA, were just named the top team in ESPN’s power rankings, despite the fact that they can’t stop a healthy Mambo, CP3, Oklahoma City Hijackers, or Boston Celtics. This might be the most laughable Power Ranking of the season — one we’ll look back on in June and chuckle fondly.

    (If you thought the entire above paragraph was a reverse jinx, you know me too well. I will now light myself on fire.)

  71. DeRosa is a FA this year. However, Prado or Infante cover for Chipper. IMHO DeRosa = Diaz offensively but DeRo does play a lot more positions and DeRo has been a full time player the past 2 or 3 seasons. As much as I like him, I’d say pass.

  72. In a way I’m glad I don’t follow other sports as it would suck up too much of my life… but on the other hand I really wish SOMETHING would happen soon. Come on Wren!

  73. I’m a little worried about the Hawks being good. Does that mean I need to start paying attention to basketball again?

    The Falcons are starting to justify my pessimism. If they finish 8-8 or 7-9, I am going to be mega-pissed.

  74. Anybody else read the piece over on Talking Chop about the two team’s approaches to Wells vs Andruw? Was a good reality check on how much of a contract we could be shackled with.

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