He’s very bad

In conjunction with a list I generated last night and posted to comments, worst on-base percentages by an Atlanta Braves outfielder, 1991-2008, min. 300 PA:


1 Jeff Francoeur 2006 .293
2 Jeff Francoeur 2008 .294

3 Reggie Sanders 2000 .302
4 Jermaine Dye 1996 .304
5 Andruw Jones 2007 .311
6 Andruw Jones 2001 .312
7 Marquis Grissom 1995 .317
8 Brian Jordan 2000 .320
9 Ron Gant 1992 .321
10 Andruw Jones 1998 .321

Remember, Francoeur also had the fifth-worst slugging percentage in the period last year. Meanwhile, worst career OBP for an Atlanta Braves outfielder (Braves games only) from 1965-2008, min. 1000 PA:


1 Jeff Francoeur .312
2 Rowland Office .313
3 Mike Lum .318
4 Terry Harper .321
5 Barry Bonnell .324
6 Brian Jordan .329
7 Brett Butler .331
8 Mack Jones .334
9 Marquis Grissom .335
10 Michael Tucker .338 L

Worst Runs Created Above Average, Season, all Atlanta Braves 1991-2008:

1 Vinny Castilla 2002 -38
2 Jeff Francoeur 2008 -34
3 Rafael Belliard 1992 -23
T4 Mark Lemke 1996 -22
T4 Tony Graffanino 1998 -22
T6 Rafael Belliard 1996 -21
T6 Rafael Belliard 1991 -21
T6 Jeff Blauser 1995 -21
T9 Mark Lemke 1997 -20
T9 Mark DeRosa 2004 -20
T9 Mark Lemke 1995 -20

Discuss. Now, everybody go vote (assuming you haven’t already) but don’t talk about who you voted for here.

309 thoughts on “He’s very bad”

  1. Unless it will somehow net them Peavy (or maybe Mags Ordonez) I don’t see Frenchy going anywhere… he and the team are still talking about their expectation of him rebounding. This might be for marketing to other team purposes, but I don’t think so.

  2. What jumps out at me on that final list is how brutally Vinny crushed the competition in ’02 — it was like an 8-way tie for last beforehand. Clearly I’ve underestimated just how terrible he was that year. And yet Frenchy damn near chased him down.

    Scene at polling place (nonpartisan):

    My polling place is a church on the corner of North Druid Hills and Clairmont in north Decatur. About 20 people in line when I arrived at 5:35 this morning. A sixty-ish woman and a man who was well into his seventies were first in line — they arrived at 4:30. Most people looked bemused but prepared for the growing line, except one guy who got there at about 6:15 and hissed “This is ridiculous!” upon seeing that around 50 people had already conspired to be in his (very important, I’m sure) way. By the time I left at 7:15 there were well over 200 people in line.

  3. In KC on the radio this morning, they were discussing the possibility of a Jose Guillen for Francoeur deal.

    I know Francoeur is very bad, but outside of being completely insane, Guillen is also owed 24 MM over the next two and had a sparkling .300 OBP himself last year.

    That is probably the one trade for Francoeur I wouldn’t do.

    Oh, and voting lines are insane. I mean, I know it’s your duty as an American and all, and I sucked it up and waited in line for an 90 minutes, but still, come up with something better.

  4. Of course, Vinny and Francoeur were playing every day, so they could pile up the outs. Belliard and Graffanino were part-time. In 1996, Raffy was able to be that far below the average in just 148 PA, which is simply amazing. Though not as amazing as getting 148 PA to hit .169 .179 .218.

  5. I tested the voting line waters this morning on my way in to work (as the designated “be in on time” guy I couldn’t hang with the line of a couple hundred people at 6:15 (Gwinnett county, GA). I left my wife to vote now as we had kid coverage, and I’ll attempt on my way home tonight. She got there at 6:15 and finished voting around 8:40. At one point she said she thought there were 400 people before the polls opened at 7, and when she left she thought there were still a couple hundred… but somebody working the tables said there were only a thousand or so people scheduled to vote at that location… so maybe this afternoon I won’t have to worry about any lines… yeah, yeah, I know, let me dream.

  6. Getting anything for Francoeur seems like a good deal to me.

    Heading over to vote at a public school in Long Island City right now. Bringing a book…

  7. The THT article forgets to add in the $4 million buyout of Peavy’s contract. If the option year is picked up, it will be a break-even proposition, at best—the article claims it’s negative value so it shouldn’t be expected to be picked up. So Peavy is a little more expensive than indicated.

    Yunel for Peavy straight up is a deal for the Padres.

  8. Getting anything for Francoeur seems like a good deal to me.

    I agree, but I don’t think Guillen qualifies as “anything.” He’s a negative—not good and also expensive.

  9. I vote we keep him and see what he can do. His value is at an all time low, I don’t think we could get anything for him at all right now.

  10. Glad to see others are also skeptical of trading Esco for Peavy. Thanks for the HT link Cliff.

    No voting delays in Rome this morning; only one person ahead of me in line when I arrived. The mrs voted earlier and also had no wait.

  11. Couldn’t we trade Francour to the Padres straight-up for Peavy? He’s got so much upside they HAVE to want him right? Oh… they’re not brain dead? never mind. It was a good dream while it lasted.

  12. “I vote we keep him and see what he can do.”

    – yeah, we’ve seen it. Its time to cut the cord. If he has any value at all then now is the time to move him. After he puts up another .245/.285/.380 line in 2009, he’ll have no value at all

  13. @13 and 15

    I’m kind of in the middle. If we could get anything; even if it is just substituting him over a Marek in the Peavy deal, I’m down. However; trading him for Guillen and a 24 MM tab is like trading away diabetes for arthritis and cancer. Yeah, it may turn out okay, but you’re probably not doing yourself any favors

  14. I would trade Frenchy because I don’t think he will ever play that well in a Braves’ uniform and for that reason we might as well begin with the premise that we need an RF.

    Frenchy may well turn it around in KC or Oakland or Seattle, but I don’t see it in Atlanta. Sure, its bad to trade ‘low’, but I would rather wish him the best, get the outfield rebuilding process started and hope to get something in return….

  15. @16–I didn’t make any comments about trading Jeffy for Guillen in 13. I was talking Ecso for Peavy.

    Now, re Jeffy for Guillen–no thanks. They both suck but Jeffy is much cheaper. He’s also probably better for attendance–Guillen probably wouldn’t attract the legions of Gwinnett Hannah Montanas.

  16. Frank,

    I meant 11. Sorry

    Would anyone trade Francoeur for Andruw if the dodgers ate most of the salary?

  17. IF the Dodgers ate MOST of the salary (all but a couple million), and IF Andruw showed up in shape and IF we had some sort of testing/etc to show that he could hit ML pitching again… then I might do that trade. Otherwise I’m rather scared of Andruw until we see him back on the field at reasonable level again.

  18. As much as I would like to see the return of the ‘old Andruw’–I am really not convinced that he can hit. In fact, I don’t think that 2008 was a surprising season–rather it was a continuation of the decline which was manifest in 2007, but in one of the favorable parks for pitchers in baseball….

    I think that the Braves really need to start with a fresh set of options for the outfield….

  19. I didn’t realize how bad Brian Jordan was. During his first run I thought he was one their better outfielders. Did his second stint hurt his career numbers that bad? I guess not. His high water braves mark was a .346 OBP in ’99. Guess my reality was skewed as I was just glad to move on from Michael Tucker.

    Oh and 15 minute wait to vote but that’s Jackson, Mississippi. We’re not know for high voter turnouts.

  20. Oh I agree Stephen, I don’t think he’ll be back in ‘old Andruw’ form, or even half-andruw form… but if we had some reasonable level of assurance of andruw – 15% and we were only paying what we paid to have Kotsay here… I’d be OK with that for a year (partially because I think ’09 is a crap shoot anyway and it would give our minor league options time to mature a bit more).

  21. Apparently the lines at my polling place were about 10 minutes this morning, yet I wasn’t able to go (class). Going at about 2ish, hopefully they won’t be too long then.

  22. I’m not interested in the notion that Frenchy is some kind of bargain. Trade him.

    Was somewhat shocked to show up at my polling place & find no line at all. I walked into this school auditorium & saw 2 booths with about 10 people in the whole room, including 6 poll workers.

    I live in an area that’s just getting developed & was told that it was packed very early, but I waltzed in and out. Easy peasy.

  23. 26–I’m all for trading Francoeur–heck, giving him away is probably a case of addition by subtraction–but not for Guillen.

  24. I voted several weeks ago by mail and I now realize that getting an absentee ballot was much easier than the hassle many Americans will go through today.

    More interesting, I did most of my graduate work outside the US and I have lived abroad for much of the last 11 years and I can honestly say that I have never seen foreigners have such fascination with American elections as I have witnessed over the last month.

    Lets hope that whatever happens today the US will be well led and continue to flourish….

  25. Why not make offers to Sabathia and Texeira? They’re both the kind of players you can build a team around and, who knows. we might get lucky.

    Maybe Mr. & Mrs. Tex loved Atlanta.

    Maybe Mr. & Mrs. Sabathia (is there a Mrs. Sabathia? – if not, I know a couple of places to take him that might seal the deal) would love Atlanta.

    Sure others are going to offer more, but after $20 million a year, it might just be quality of life that wins out.

    It’s like asking a “10” for a date – all they can say is “no”.

  26. “Braves officials believe Escobar has All-Star potential and are also reluctant to deal him.”


    I also like the selection of pitchers he offers to satisfy the “two young pitchers” criteria. James Parr and Jo Jo Reyes anyone?

  27. Upon returning from the break room at work have decided that all a candidate needs to do is run on a “free cookie” platform and they would win. Health care and defense are issues of course, but Cookies… well cookies are REALLY important.

  28. The wait time for me in North Alabama was about 45 minutes (beginning at 7:15). The lines were already dwindling as I left, but part of that was that the polling place was getting their act together. I’ve actually been very pleased with the voting process in Alabama over the last several years.

    I say no on trading Francoeur for Guillen. I know that there’s only a small chance of Francouer being useful, but he has a better chance than Guillen IMO. I don’t want us to trade Esco, but I don’t think I could resist Peavy for Esco straight up. I don’t see that as a possibility though, and adding a solid prospect along with Esco would be a mistake.

  29. Put me in the “vote no on 7 for 11 proposition”… Frenchy, for all his issues, is at least cheap. Guillen wouldn’t do much differently than Frenchy, but would take up more money (and have no potential to get better really… as little a factor as that may be).

    Also agree with Stephen in the UAE… Sabathia I like. Tex I’d not want to spend that much money on. He’s good, but doesn’t seem to be a “gamer” as Sabathia does.

  30. I did an absentee ballot, and thankfully I don’t have to deal with this today. Now, apparently here in Clearwater (I dunno if it’s the case around the country), you get free Starbucks, Chick Fil A, and Krispy Kreme if you vote. Hopefully that extends to absentee voting.

  31. Half an hour in and out at my polling place — democracy in action, y’all.

    You’re welcome on the OBP list from last thread, Mac. I used the baseball-reference Play Index, the reason that I shelled out $30 for a year of B-Ref Pro, and a tool that may be best described as being like crack cocaine only better.

  32. Actually, Starbucks had to withdraw the offer because it’s technically illegal — you can’t pay people to vote. So they’re giving it away to anyone.

  33. I’ll take Andruw for Frenchy. I don’t think he’s done yet. Hopefully, Ububba was right about his condition. The boy played hard and took a beating for the Braves for a decade. I would think we could afford to look at him at a discounted rate.

  34. The only way I would take Andruw is to sign him to a minor league deal and see if he can work things out (or if he’s lost it) by the end of the year. He has suffered through two horrible years and will most likely be worse than Francoeur next year unless he makes some major changes.

  35. I don’t type well enough to do a lengthy edit, so:

    Voting early was easy in Albany, GA. On October 23 I almost voted alone.

    I’d rather pay Santana $25M per for six years than pay Peavy a lesser salary and give up Yunel, one of centerfield prospects, and one or two of our pitchers not named Hansen. I’d love to have Peavy but not if it means we give up Yunel. One of our centerfield prospects, Prado, Medlin and another prospect would be my max.

    Of course, I don’t get a vote, except early in the Good Life City.

  36. Im going to write in Frenchy on my ballot, that should all but guarantee us that he’s not our RF’r for the next 4 years

  37. If we trade Frenchy he will become the next Mark DeRosa. I still think getting rid of DeRosa was the right thing for the Braves and him. I also think if we can get any kind of return for Frenchy then it will be good for the Braves and good for him.
    No line voting just now and only two out of twenty booths occupied in front of me… Less than 15 minutes from my front door and back again.

  38. I think Peavy is still a good move for the Braves. You can’t assume any free agent signings. What if the Braves pass and Peavy is traded elsewhere, but despite all their efforts Lowe keeps his word and signs with the Red Sox for next season and the Yankees make some insane offer for A.J. Burnett?

  39. I was listening to this on the radio going to vote today in Kansas City and just figured it was the normal Hot Stove hot air but per DOB:

    By the way, I had someone who’s close to the KC organization ask me just this morning what it would take to get Francoeur. He told me that if Dayton and his assistants had a list of the guys they’d like to trade for, Francoeur is atop it. Seriously. They don’t view him in light of this past season so much as they do for the years he was in the minor league system when Dayton was with the Braves, etc. They LOVE his mental makeup and physical talent. Hey, just telling you what I hear.

    Anyway, how ‘bout Mark Teahan and a top pitching prospect to start a trade discussion with the Royals? Teahan is sort of their Francoeur, the OF who’s shown flashes of big potential, but slipped last year, etc. Teahan made $2.2 mill in his first year of arb, but I’m told Royals might be willing to send some cash to a team in a trade to cover part of his 2009 salary.

    I’ll try to find out today what Braves think of him. Again, this is not any trade rumor I’ve heard, don’t even know if Braves have any interest in him….

    I’m with you, Towers DOES have to trade Peavy. The owner wants to take payroll down to — get this — $40 mill. That’s more than a 50—percent reduction. And they’re keeping Giles and A. Gonzalez, so you do the math on how much they have left to spend for the rest of the team if they are to get the payroll where they want it.

    Just from being in KC and watching Teahen play a few times. He’s shown spurts, but they have been jerking him around positionally since Alex Gordon has been brought up and I think it’s messed with him. Great clubhouse guy though; every time Jose Guillen would go insane, Teahen would be the one guy who was said to clear the air. Good with the media and did a lot of great work in the community. Don’t know how high his actual ceiling is, but IMO definitely worth a few Francoeurs

  40. Teahen is more valuable to other teams as a third baseman who can play some outfield than he is for the Braves as a corner outfielder who can back up third base.

  41. Just voted, took a whopping 5 minutes. Went inside, went right to the table to get my access card, voted, left in 5 minutes. Awesome.

  42. It’s all conjecture, but I’m not so sure Mac. Chipper’s availability is always in question and Teahen could definitely fill that hole. I think that he’d have just as much value as someone who could play third as he would as an outfielder. Plus, it’s not like the farm system is bursting with top flight 3B prospects.

    The Braves 3B situation is fairly unique within baseball and Teahen might be a solution to it

  43. Teahan’s ops+ was 91; Francoeur was 72. So neither is great but Teahan is less putrid. Do the deal, esp. if the Royals throw in something else with value.

  44. DOB just threw the Teahen name out there, guys. That wasn’t based on anything he’s heard about the Braves having interest.

    I have to think the Braves would target pitching from the Royals.

  45. Not that different–46 walks in 623 PAs last year.

    For comparison, Monsieur Hack–39 walks in 652 PAs.

  46. If you grab Teahen, then Omar Infante or Prado become slightly expendable. I’d love to do a trade of Prado/Infante + whatever for an outfield bat. That way, you can re-sign Diaz for a bench guy, and you have a good outfield and a good replacement at third (Teahen) when Chipper goes down. And, when Chipper is healthy, you have a legit bat on the bench (Diaz).

  47. 1hr 15m @10:30 in beautiful Ormewood Park, Atlanta GA. I might bite on teahen if the $s were equalized – we’re going to need a 3b of some kind pretty soon.

  48. ahhhhhhh, the joys of living in the rural south……..i showed up to vote about 2:30 and was greeted at the door by Every poll worker. i guess they were finishing a mass smoke break and were happy to see a customer. even me. but i did get a good laugh when i fed my ballot into the machine and asked if it was a shredder………thx for the November heads up Mac. i’d almost forgotten that the Frenchman sucks. happy birthday to me !

  49. If the Braves trade Francoeur for Teahan, Bill Shanks’s head will explode.

    The thing is, if Moore still values Francoeur then so do the Braves. It’s not like he was Moore’s pet guy who got the shaft when he left. If I’m a KC fan, I’m a bit worried with the fact that the GM is so in love with some of his previous organization’s busts.

  50. If there’s a throw in maybe it could be B. Pena so Project Corky would be ended and Esco could get his buddy back. Just saying … (point taken Stu @55).

  51. If guys who were actually around Francouer think he’s worthy, my guess is the fairy dust of his early success still permeates the air of other teams’ headquarters.

    Frenchy and a pitcher not named Hanson for Peavy and ok we’ll take Khalil and send you Lillibridge. Deal?

    Oh, and Stu – watched UK’s roundball team last night. Remember how Pitino’s teams looked in the mid-90s? Critical mass, baby, critical mass.

  52. JC,

    Obviously TP Jr. was the one player in bigs that Frency compared favorably to last year. However, Kyle Davies looked very good last September. He went 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA with 24 K’s and only 7 BB’s in 31 innings. It might be a fluke, but he was starting to look like he was putting it all together. Plus, even his overall ERA last year was only a 4.07.

    That’s being said, I will feel kinda bad if the Royals are subjected to Francoeur. I am fairly sure that combining he and Jacobs will result in the creation of a black hole from which no runs will ever escape. Going to some of the games and seeing how bad they’ve been has let me to adopt the Royals in kinda a dorky little brother sort of way. Still, if the Braves can find someone to actually give them something useful for Francoeur, they’d be fools not to do it.

  53. If the Pads are in serious salary dump mode, I wonder if we could relieve them of Giles salary. :-)

    Kidding aside, he’s not a power bat but he’s not a good obp guy. Probably good for only 15 or so HR, but 35-40 doubles.

    Ethan–good point on Jacobs and Francoeur in the same lineup. That would be cruel.

  54. Has anyone been following the Kazawa sweepstakes? Does anyone know what kind of money he’s seeking?

  55. According to DOB, the Braves have offered Tazawa a major league contract worth roughly “what a high first-round draft pick might get.”

    Also according to DOB:

    Here’s a rumor you might be hearing soon. I repeat, might be hearing.

    Kelly Johnson for Ryan Ludwick. Hey, you ask about whispers, I give you whispers. I’ll let you know if I hear it said above a whisper.


  56. Johnson for ludwick would be perfect, then maybe we can go out and get cesar izturis to play second and spell at short… I really don’t like prado’s defense.

  57. I dunno about perfect. Ludwick’s coming off a career year and will be 30 next season. As AAR pointed out to me, though, Sickels thinks he’s pretty legit going forward.

  58. If we get Ludwick his contract with KJ would be a wash. With Prado at second would that not leave $45 million to spend between two starters? CC and Peavy?

  59. TomL, good point. Takes care of one need while leaving the full available payroll for other needs. Pretty good idea if Ludwick is legit

  60. I really don’t think CC is coming to Atlanta. He’s too big of a name for us to pull at this point.

  61. Diebold voted for me!
    The Willy Tavares trade rumors have got me thinking, under what circumstances would you cease to be a Braves fan? Under what circumstances would you continue nominally as a Braves fan but withhold all material support?
    For the former, the bar is almost impossibly high. It would require something like Cox retiring and Francouer being named player manager. For the latter, I think I’m almost there. Trading a boatload of prospects and Yunel for Peavy + aquiring Tavares for CF + starting RF Jeff Francouer in 2009 would probably put me firmly in that category.
    I can accept being a bad team and rebuilding even if it takes 2-3 years. I’m not going to support a stupid team.

  62. interesting…per DOB

    By David O’Brien

    November 4, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this

    Meanwhile, a HAMPTON UPDATE: Braves will make him an offer, but are letting his agent talk to other teams at his request to see what’s out there. Hampton really likes Atlanta and pitching for Bobby Cox, but his primary home is in Arizona now and he’d ideally like to pitch out west for San Diego, Arizona or Houston, though it’s not clear if any of them are going to make an offer comparable to what Braves might.

    He’s looking for a one-year deal, knows his injury history precludes anything longer. Probably something with a base salary of about $4-5 mill and incentives for starts or innings….

    Joe: Ankiel might also be available. Him or Ludwick might interest the Braves.

    By David O’Brien

    November 4, 2008 7:34 PM | Link to this

    Just heard from someone (not a Braves official) that the offer to Tazawa was worth more than the $6 mill bonus that No. 1 overall draft pick Pedro Alvarez got from Pittsburgh this year. I’ll try to verify that, but that’s what I heard from someone who’s very familiar with Japanese baseball.

  63. baryycuda… is it really your birthday or was that just for emphasis? Happy birthday to you all the same.

    4/50 for Varitek? I wonder what Boras would be asking for Corky if he were his agent.

  64. well, it’s news enough since they spent a pretty penny and a 2nd round pick on him. No worries, though, Al Davis is in charge…

  65. Why would any decent to good NFL free agent sign with a bad NFL team with the strong possibility that if the team starts out poorly they’ll just jettison anyone who might vest a large salary to free up cap space and start over. On the other hand, $8million for 8 games doesn’t seem like such a bad deal.

  66. Yeah–its a historic night (morning here)but to change the subject–I am happy that the Braves appear to be making a move after Tazawa….

  67. Rob,

    All you had was a date? It would have been a bigger night if that’s not all you had.

  68. Nick Swisher is apparently being shopped by the White Sox—wonder what it’d take. I’d very much like to have him.

  69. #88…….yep……it was really my b-day. thx for the wishes. born in ’49 so the next one will be really scary. since i’m healthy, i’m kinda enjoying getting old and it damn sure beats the alternative. heres hoping the Braves become a good team again sometime while i’m still around.

  70. I don’t know about getting Swisher. At 28, he seems to be taking the career path of Andruw Jones. It would be nice to have his power (24 Hrs), but last year’s .219 avg and a .743 OPS is not what we need. Maybe he can turn it around and get back to his 2006 performance (35 Hrs, .864 OPS), but we should be able to do better. I sure wouldn’t give up much for him.

  71. Maybe we can sign Maddux to a one day deal?

    That would be like christmas before christmas. He is my all time favourite Brave, and I think he’s still a decent #3 and a good #4. And he has been healthy throughout his career.

    I don’t think it will happen though, since he has all but announced his retirement. If he’d be available for around $6m, I’d sign him in a split second (and make him my pitching coach in 2010 if he wants the job).

  72. Barrycuda,

    Ah, to be 60 again! Better yet, 59. What I could have done then knowing what I know now!

    Happy birthday. You and my bride share birth dates. You weren’t born in Barwick, Georgia, were you?

    Please do something, Mr. Wren.

  73. 28 isn’t old, and Swisher was a 125 OPS+ hitter in 06 and 07. PrOPS says he was a bit unlucky and his BABIP was down from his norm. If 2008 was a product of age, then it is an atypical aging patter. If you want to compare him to Andruw, his 28 and 29 seasons were the best of his career.

  74. Tom, I read somewhere, maybe here, that he really wants to be a bench coach. Maybe he has managerial aspirations. The boy’s sharp, so he’d probably be a good one.

  75. #106, that’d be great, but I think he’s too smart for that (if there is such a thing as being too smart for a job).

  76. @107 hmm. . . I’m not sure I’m comfortable with a lake being part of the rotation – maybe the bullpen though to put out all of the fires our crappy rotation starts though ;)

  77. The Braves not only could include shortstop Yunel Escobar in a deal for Padres right-hander Jake Peavy, but they also are drawing serious trade interest in second baseman Kelly Johnson.

    About 10 clubs have inquired about Johnson; the Cardinals could move one of their outfielders for a second baseman, and the Diamondbacks want to acquire a left-handed hitting replacement for Orlando Hudson.

    The Braves could turn to some combination of Omar Infante, Martin Prado and Derek Lillibridge at one of the infield positions, but they do not want to create vacancies at both.

    What the hell? I thought the Braves had a great middle infield and now they’re seriously thinking about some worst-in-the-NL middle infield of Prado and Infante?

  78. I just bought my Escobar team t-shirt a few weeks ago (yet to arrive). Unless we have any prospects with the last name Escobar I would want my money back

  79. Bad news guys. The MLB site says that Elmer Dessens has filed for free agency and implies that the Braves won’t take him back. I know his veteran presence will be missed in the clubhouse for our end of the year run. Now if we can just be guaranteed to miss Corky Miller’s veteran presence.

  80. It shows you how bad Brent Lillibridge is, people call him Derek for some reason. There is no way they trade both KJ and Yunel and go into the season with Infante and Prado

  81. Mac, do you have an inside source for that?

    They’re confusing current Brave Brent Lillibridge with former Brave Derek Lilliquist, csg.

  82. I don’t have any inside sources. I just read between the lines, and what’s between the lines says that (a) they won’t trade both starting middle infielders and (b) they want to trade KJ. Quod erat demonstratum, or possibly res ipsa loquitur. Francoeur delenda est.

  83. Ryan Ludwick ’08: 299/375/591. That would look very good in the OF and batting cleanup. What’s his story? Why the lack of playing time until his age 29 season?

    If that’s a legit line, I’d trade KJ for that. Oh yeah, I see he bats Righty. Even better.

  84. DOB says we’re not trading KJ for Ludwick. Says we’re interested in Ludwick, but it wouldn’t be in exchange for KJ. He notes that several teams have inquired about KJ, but doesn’t say any sort of trade is imminent. He also continues to reference that he expects a Peavy deal to get done, and that he expects a package involving Yunel and a couple of good prospects would work.

    I hope you’re right, Mac, but I think an equally plausible reading between the lines results in the conclusion that we’re trading Yunel and keeping KJ.

  85. This:

    Dutton says the Braves appear willing to trade Jeff Francoeur. While no trade talks have taken place, it’s known that Royals GM Dayton Moore is a fan. Dutton speculates that the Royals would not give up Zack Greinke for Francoeur, but may consider offering Luke Hochevar, Danny Cortes, or Mark Teahen.

    and this:

    The Braves are mentioning Jeff Francoeur “in trade talks with anyone who will listen.” Royals GM Dayton Moore is known to be a fan. Looking at 2008’s bottom ten in OBP…Moore signed Jose Guillen (.300), acquired Mike Jacobs (.299), and has been linked in trade talks to Francoeur (.294) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.300). And don’t forget Willy Taveras (.308).

    …today from MLBTradeRumors gives me hope.

  86. According to Keith Law:
    The Royals would like to sign Zack Greinke to a long-term deal, but if he doesn’t agree to it, they would make him available.

    If they won’t do Greinke straight up for Frenchy, what would we have to throw in to get him? JoJo perhaps?

  87. “They’re confusing current Brave Brent Lillibridge with former Brave Derek Lilliquist, csg.”

    oh, I know. Just trying to stir up conversation.

    I would trade Frenchy and a useful prospect for Grienke. Make that deal happen

  88. Agree on Swisher; good contract and lots on OB and power. let’s buy him at his low point and take a risk. Funny that his awful .743 OPS, way below bcareer norms, is still way above Frenchie last year.

  89. On Swisher – yes his .743 OPS last year was well above Frenchy. So was the majority of major league baseball. I’m not against getting Swisher, I’m just against paying much for him at all (we have to account for salary in addition to prosepects).

    As bad as our outfield was last year, swapping Swisher for Frenchy won’t be much of an upgrade, if any. If we get Swisher, we’ll definitely need another outfielder – probably 2.

  90. Frenchy:

    “I’m comfortable swinging at pitches that are tough”

    “I’m comfortable in late inning pressure situations in which I fit great”

    “I’m comfortable in Wrangler”

    Move over Delta, we have a new winner!

  91. Swisher’s set to earn $5.3, $6.75, and $9 million in the next three seasons. Not cheap, but not really expensive, either. And he’s incredibly versatile—can play all 3 OF positions and 1B.

    As always, it would depend on what we’d have to give up to get him, but I think it’d be worth investigating.

  92. 124 — perfect.

    Let’s make it happen and get Greinke on board.

    Swisher isn’t exactly a three true outcomes guy, but he doesn’t seem to be the type of hitter that the organization prefers.

  93. NL Gold Gloves:

    C: Yadier Molina
    1B: Adrian Gonzalez
    2B: Brandon Phillips
    SS: Jimmy Rollins
    3B: David Wright
    OF: Nate McClouth
    OF: Shane Victorino
    OF: Carlos Beltran
    P: Greg Maddux

    Maddux just hit his 18th…not bad.

    I’d say Utley probably deserved it over Phillips. If anyone had any info, I’d be curious to know if Wright “New Yorked” his way into another GG or if he actually deserved this one. Other than that, I don’t have any real issues with this list.

  94. Compared with the Fielding Bible Awards (one per position in all of MLB):

    Molina was 1st
    Gonzalez was 11th
    Phillips was 1st
    Rollins was 1st
    Wright was 6th
    McLouth was t-17th (among CFs)
    Victorino was t-8th (among CFs)
    Beltran was 1st (among CFs)
    Maddux was 2nd

  95. if anyone cares…some interesting post from DOB today


    highlights from DOB…the Peavy thing could be done sooner than later.

    I can assure you that Hanson is absolutely, positively not going to be traded this winter or for the forseeable future. Trust me on that.

    I was assured yesterday that the Braves would not trade BOTH Escobar and KJ. Would they trade one of them? Yes

    As for Greinke, that’s not happening.

    Teahan and a prospect like Cortes for Francoeur?

  96. I should have figured on Pujols. The defense gets overlooked because of the bat. Stu, do you know how Chipper, Tex, and Yunel finished?

  97. You can find the “Complete Vote Talley” (under the “The Voting” tab) on the site to which I linked, Ethan.

    Chipper – 13th
    Tex – 2nd
    Yunel – 3rd

  98. Saw a pretty interesting comment on DOBs blog, Rafael Palmeiro won a GG for first base in 1999…playing a whopping 28 games there. How does that happen?

  99. #139 because the Gold Glove voters are typically stupid and probably base their votes on E!SPN’s “web gems.” Wright is still probably thought of as an elite defensive player because of the pop up he mis-played and then barehanded a few years back. The also probably take offense into account, too. Pedro Feliz has to be one the best defensive 3Bs in the game.

  100. My understanding is that he managers and coaches vote on the GG awards. They cannot vote for their own players. Giving two Mets players awards was probably a sympathy vote.

  101. DOB’s latest:

    The consensus among folks I talk to is that the Braves have been and still are the favorites to land the Alabama native and 2007 Cy Young Award winner, though it will likely cost them shortstop Yunel Escobar and a package of a few other prospects including at least two pitchers not named Tommy Hanson (Braves aren’t trading Hanson, period.)

    While I’m thinking about it, let me reiterate a few things I’ve heard in the past couple days: 1. The Braves will NOT trade both Escobar and Kelly Johnson this offseason, though that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade one…

    He suggests that Escobar/Medlen/Morton/filler for Peavy is a good guess.


  102. So does this mean Raffy does indeed return?

    Add Peavy and Furcal

    Lose Escobar

    Don’t love it. Yet.

  103. Hypothetically, we could be looking at a ~$100 million roster (in 2009) that’s something like this:

    Peavy ($11M)
    Burnett ($16M)
    Jurrjens ($0.5M)
    Hampton ($4M)
    Campillo ($0.5M)
    [Hudson ($13M) – DL until healthy]
    [Tazawa ($1M) – Minors, probably]

    Gonzalez ($4M)
    Soriano ($6.1M)
    Ohman ($3M)
    Moylan ($0.5M)
    Boyer ($0.5M)
    Bennett ($0.5M)
    Carlyle ($0.5M)
    [Smoltz ($8M) – DL until healthy]

    Anderson – CF ($0.5M)
    Infante – SS ($2.25M)
    C. Jones – 3B ($11M)
    Ludwick – LF ($2.5M)
    McCann – C ($3.5M)
    Johnson – 2B ($2M)
    Kotchman – 1B ($2.75M)
    Teahen – RF ($3.75M)

    Norton ($1.5M)
    Blanco ($0.5M)
    Prado ($0.5M)
    Lillibridge ($0.5M)
    Sammons ($0.5M)

    Some of those arbitration salaries could be a little off, but it’s close. Ohman could probably make more than $3M/year, but I can’t see the Braves offering him more than that. Same with the proposed Smoltz and Hampton contracts.

    Burnett’s probably the least likely since I haven’t seen the Braves tied to him in a couple of weeks, but if the rest of the roster looks like that, we should have the money to spend on him.


  104. I’ve forgotten Francoeur. Oh, thanks for reminding me. Even I couldn’t remember how the spell was! It was always confused. Funny hahahaha…
    By the way, am I justified in saying above? Sorry about that Francoeur.

  105. Bowman says Braves shopping Francoeur (and Johnson). See the Braves’ official site.

    DOB says the Braves are not shopping Francoeur:


    Who to believe? Knowing this team recently, they’re going to trade Johnson and keep Francoeur.

  106. I think we trade Escobar for Peavy and keep KJ and Frenchy. I would believe DOB before Peanut.

    Stu @ 146 , I thought by us offering Tazawa a major league offer he has to be on the 25 man roster. Am I wrong here?

  107. Count me against taking on Swisher’s salary and against trading Esco (and, incredibly, others) for Peavy.

    Wren’s motto should be don’t just do something, do something smart.

    KJ for Ludwick sounds more sensible to me, though I’d hate to deal KJ.

  108. …against trading Esco (and, incredibly, others) for Peavy.

    Really? Because Escobar/Morton/filler sounds a little light for Peavy to me.

  109. We aren’t bidding for negotiating rights with tazawa which gives us a much better chance. I think they could give him what would be considered a small deal for a potentially good starting pitcher. Look at what the whitesox paid for Alexei Ramirez.

  110. I never thought Id say this, but I have a lot more confidence in Prado replacing KJ than Infante replacing Yunel

  111. According to DOB, the Braves are very interested in Ludwick and the Cards are interested in both Yunel and KJ, and if neither Yunel nor KJ is included in a deal for Peavy, one (probably KJ) would be sent to St. Louis for Ludwick. Seems like he still expects Yunel to be in the Peavy deal, though. No word on whether there’s a package involving neither that would entice the Cards for Ludwick.

  112. 10:53pm: Ken Rosenthal says the Cubs are the frontrunner for Peavy, “perhaps even ahead of the Braves.” He says the Cubs also want to re-sign Ryan Dempster. The Cubs’ dream rotation would be Peavy, Carlos Zambrano, Dempster, Ted Lilly, and Rich Harden.

    The Braves had a window of exclusivity to hammer out a Peavy trade, but that has apparently passed. The Padres like the Cubs’ young pitching, even if it doesn’t match Atlanta’s.

    If the Cubs pull this off, they’d have to cut costs by perhaps letting Kerry Wood go and going cheaper in right field.

  113. I am not crazy about Ludwick either, but there are just not too many power hitting outfielders available. Ludwick is a much better and cheaper option than Burrell for sure, but I don’t like seeing all those K’s he had last season…

    …I see Ludwick being similar to Bay with less of a track record…

  114. The difference between Ludwick’s 2007 and 2008 numbers make the latter scream ‘career year’. I think that if the Braves get Ludwick we might see numbers which look more like his 2007 output….

  115. Stephen, on the other hand, 2007 and 2008 are the only two seasons he had significant playing time. Looking at his minor league stats, I think we can expect something in between 2007 and 2008.

    Don’t get me wrong, I am not crazy about Ludwick, and I certainly do not like his Ks. I am just saying I like Ludwick more than Burrell, which isn’t saying much, ha. It would be great if we hear other alternatives beyond those two…

  116. For the Cubs to be frontrunner, Towers has to have pretty horrible scouting as it means people like Pie, Cedeno and Rich Hill are valued highly.

  117. Peavy is not worth Escobar (with NOTHING added) when you look at what a comparable free agent pitcher costs (the difference is only about $15 million over the whole 5 years, guys and gals). For 09, we are barely improved by the deal (net of the up from Peavy, down from going from Escobar to Infante or Lillibridge which will be approximately 30 offensive and 30 defensive runs on Infante or about 6 games, probably 50 offensive and 0 dfensive runs on Lillibridge or 5 games).

    The other reason not to trade Escobar is taking on Greene. If Greene’s park differentials are real, then we could hold Greene for one year, offer arb, and make it work.

    But, then, if Greene’s park differentials are real, what about Peavy’s? If Peavy pitches for us in “non Petco” mode like he has in his career, he is a weak 2, strong 3 with injury risks. In other words, a little better than Gil Meche, but with a bigger contract.

  118. Count me in on the Dont trade for Peavy or Ludwick camp.
    KJ for Ludwick is not a great deal, i would trade a Minor leaguer for him though, Maybe Prado and a pitcher?
    Then sign a couple FA pitchers if possible and really build for 2010.

    then again, i am just a history teacher, not a GM.

  119. If I knew we were going to do one of the two trades, I would jump at KJ for Ludwick.

    We may be treating KJ and Yunel as roughly equivalent trade chips. Depending on who we’re talking to, that may make sense. But on this roster, there’s no way that Infante+KJ > Yunel+Prado. The dropoff on defense at SS is too great, and while Infante did okay at the bat last year, his prior record does not inspire a great deal of confidence.

  120. If Bobby would quit putzing around with them, Yunel and KJ would have long since convinced everyone that they – a young, above average middle-infield combo – form the basis of our future (along with, of course, McCann).

    Everybody else is available – just not those three.

    We’ll regret it for years.

  121. Oh, and Kotchman at first is not the answer. Nothing at all against him, it’s just that we need power from 1B if we’re not getting it from the outfield.

  122. I agree with Sansho1. Ludwick hit 37 HR’s. KJ, Yunel, and Frenchy (the three guys who got the most AB’s on the team) hit 33 COMBINED. I can deal with the difference between Kelly and Prado for an right handed outfielder with some power.

  123. I would be seriously offended if DOB wrote this about me:

    “The Braves hope to fill their ace hole with Peavy,…”

  124. per mlb rumors….

    Strauss confirms the recent chatter from Dave O’Brien – the Braves are interested, and would be willing to give up Kelly Johnson or Yunel Escobar if they don’t trade one of them in a Jake Peavy deal. The Cardinals like both infielders, but would probably require “significant minor league pitching” to be added by the Braves.

  125. If we get two outfielders that can hit for power, taking another chance on Francouer being useful will be a little easier to absorb. I still don’t believe in selling low for Frenchy and getting someone older, more expensive, and only slightly more useful.

    I don’t want to trade Escobar, but getting Peavy may be worth it. However, I don’t think he’s worth more than Esco and another pitcher – preferably not Morton (definitely not Hanson).

  126. with the assumption that Renteria is just not comfortable as an American league player. Worked once. Don’t know if it’ll happen again.

  127. He played well for us, but I’d rather have Yunel. Free agents on field values rarely exceed their costs.

  128. I’m not sure if Renteria should still be playing shortstop. His range was well on its way to decline in 2007.

  129. To be clear, ububba: So do I! That’s just sort of the direction in which I see all this going.

    PS: If DOB’s right about any Smoltz/Hampton/Glavine money coming from a different stack of cash than the regular payroll allotment, we really could sign a big name in free agency. Also worth keeping in mind is the insurance money we’ll receive for Hudson, which I’d not previously considered.

  130. If the Yanks are really offering Hughes and Kennedy, I bet the Pads move in that direction. I guess it all depends on if Peavy would really go there or not

  131. 10:02am: ESPN’s Buster Olney says the Padres have interest in Braves prospect Jeff Locke. David O’Brien says the Padres want Tommy Hanson, but are willing to settle for Yunel Escobar and a few lesser prospects.

  132. I’m reluctantly okay with the idea of trading Escobar for Peavy, but if we do that, who is going to be our shortstop?

    Infante? Much more valuable as a utility guy and is definitely a downgrade defensively.

    Lillibridge? Can’t even hit AAA. Defensive stud though.

    Renteria? The word statue was appropriate.

    I can’t think of anyone else outside of trying to resign Furcal.

    For me then, it becomes a question of whether Peavy is worth giving up not only Escobar, but also the additional prospects, (Morton, Schaefer, Locke) when taking into account the probable severe regression at the shortstop position and the eight figures that the team will be paying him.

    That is also leaving the potential injury situation out of the equation.

    I don’t know. Peavy’s a stud, but there’s a lot on the other side of the scale.

  133. Will some of you who are in favor of dealing Escobar for Peavy try to reasonably explain how Peavy for 4 years at 67 million guaranteed (that ASSUMES he doesn’t require the 22 million option to vest, but accounts for the 4 million buy out) is better than Escobar for 5 years (high projection of production 20.5 mill, low side projection of production 15.3 million).

    Equaling “low side” Escobar on the open market would cost 35 million 7 mill for 5 years). Equaling “high side” Escobar would cost 65 million. ( 13 a year for 5 years) a little less than Furcal 3 years ago.)

    PLUS, Peavy is GUARANTEED. If Yunel goes Baldelli or goes Steve Howe or goes Michael Vick on you, there is no prolonged bleeding.

    Folks, this makes no sense.

  134. FWIW, Cliff, DOB has said more than once that Peavy wouldn’t require that $22 million to vest to come to Atlanta.

    I will also note that I don’t think you take everything into account with your calculations. For example, the general availability or typical cost of 27-year-old aces.

    I’m generally with you about Yunel, but I think it’s a much closer call than you do.

    PS: If Yunel goes Baldelli/Howe/Vick on us, how will we feel about not having traded him for Peavy?

  135. I believe that Hanson is a real good prospect. However, including him for Peavy makes more sense than Escobar.

    1. It is pitching for pitching.

    2. For 2009 and 2010 the only reasonable way Hanson is better in ML is if Peavy is hurt.

    3. We have 6 and up to 2/3 “cheap” years on Hanson. But we have 5 “cheap” years on Escobar. We would be giving up comparable “cheap” years.

    4. Unless Hanson becomes at least an ML 3 during the 5 2/3 years, Escobar is more valuable.

  136. Ludwick for KJ is ok. But adding anything high ceiling or highly projectable to that is nuts. KJ has roven himself to be above average offensive 2B. He has been anywhere from average to fairly poor defensively. He has potential to be a “near Utley” offensively.

    Ludwick has only 1 ML year that puts him in KJ”s class.

  137. I think that the price for Peavey should depend in part on an evaluation of how much of his success is related to pitching in that ballpark. As I recall, someone on here a couple of weeks ago said his splits had been pretty even until this year. Turner Field is a pretty good pitcher’s park but I’m a little worried about how much, if at all, Peavey is a creation of Petco.

    In general, I think it’s harder to find a shortstop than a second baseman, although I think KJ has more power potential. If you have a good shortstop, I would be very reluctant to trade him without a back up plan. Of course, the Braves have won in the past without great shortstops but they don’t have Maddux, Smoltz, Glavine, et. al anymore. And, as much as I like Edgar Renteria, he can’t catch a cold anymore.

  138. stu @196,

    But the point of the Baldelli / Howe / Vick is that Peavy could do that too. And if so, the checks just keep on going. And if the Braves were the Yankees, that wouldn’t matter. But we can’t pay 15 million for nothing.

  139. Olney says:
    “So at some point, the Braves and Padres may well strike a deal built around shortstop Yunel Escobar, center fielder Jordan Schaefer, pitcher Charlie Morton, and one more pitching prospect. The Padres are known to have interest in left-hander Jeff Locke, a 20-year-old who pitched in Single-A last season.”

    That’s ridiculous. Maybe something centered aroudn Schaefer and Morton OR Escobar. But not all three of those.

  140. #204 – that deal wont happen

    edit: I should say I dont think it’ll happen. Thats basically trading 3 of our young cheap and probably 25 man rsoter guys for next year. I could see Schaefer/Morton/Locke and another, but not Esco and Schafer together

  141. Not liking the developing Cubs-Peavy-Dempster saga. A Chicago writer claims the Cubs are going harder after Peavy because of Dempster’s steep contract demands.

    I can envision a scenario in which we miss out on Peavy and end up with an over-priced Dempster.

  142. Wait, the Cubs want another right handed starting pitcher that has an injury history. Shocker.

    I don’t think Wren would offer Olney’s proposed deal.

  143. I wouldn’t trade Yunel straight up for Peavy. Escobar should be untouchable. Period. End of story. Trading him would be a huge mistake for the organization.

  144. Stu – what is Dempster’s contract situation? Are you concerned that we’ll overvalue him in terms of cash or prospects, or both?

  145. He’s a free agent. His asking price is reportedly 5 years, $75 million. I know he won’t end up with that, but that starting point is so absurd that I have to think whatever contract he gets would be a terrible one for this team.

  146. I thought Dempster would be a FA. I actually thought 5/$75 mil would be about what to expect for an ace caliber pitcher. After looking at his career body of work, I’m with you on it Stu. 2008 really looks like an outlier – I don’t see him being an ace for very long.

  147. So, looking at TD’s # 214, an ace should get as a FA 5 years and 75 million, but we need to take Peavy at 4 years for 67 million. Is he an “uber ace”? (not outside of Petco)

    But wait, Ronco fans, there’s more. We should give up Yunel Escobar and Jordan Schafer and Charlie Morton, too. But, if we act now, we also get to throw in Jeff Locke and maybe another player.

    Hanson and 2 low level players for Peavy: o.k. Escobar: not o.k.

    Dempster is not as good as Peavy. He has had an outlier year. But Dempster at 5/75 as compared to Peavy at 4/67 is not very much worse. And, without Yunel, it is significantly worse to get Peavy.

  148. I’m following contract talks for Manny today.
    Suddenly the fact he was paid $160 million in his last contract hit me like a punch in the gut.

    I won’t argue his value as a player or his contribution to Boston’s World Series. He’s probably going to get $50 million more before he’s through.

    Instead, facing a winter where paying my fuel bill will be an incredible concern, I can’t help but wonder if my time would’ve been better spent finding ways to make a better living rather than obssesing over a ballplayer. Says more about me than Manny.

  149. But Dempster at 5/75 as compared to Peavy at 4/67 is not very much worse.

    This is clearly false. You’re right about what happens when you add Yunel to the equation, but in purely salary terms, Peavy (who, by my calculations, costs 4 years at $63) is a bargain and Dempster, at that salary and term length, is *incredibly* overpriced.

    We should give up Yunel Escobar and Jordan Schafer and Charlie Morton, too. But, if we act now, we also get to throw in Jeff Locke and maybe another player.

    Who has said this? No one here believes we should give up all that for Peavy.

  150. Hey, so the Cubs apparently want both Peavy and Dempster. Maybe they’ll save us from Dempster, then.

    Maybe they’ll trade us Jason Marquis!

  151. 217- That was Olney today. I definitely wouldn’t agree to it.

    The MOST I would give up to the Padres for Peavy would be:

    Schafer, Morton, Medlin, and Flowers

    And even in that I would feel like we gave up too much. Anything over that, I’d tell the Padres to go and try and get something better. And unless the Cubs completely cleared their system or the Yankees based their offer around Hughes and Jackson, I doubt they’d find it.

  152. Ethan,
    I know Olney said it. But I don’t trust Olney to be very well connected to this situation. And again, nobody has advocated doing that to get Peavy, which is what Cliff’s response implies.

    As for your proposed offer, we’re on the same page. It’d be an expensive price, but I think it’d be worth the gamble.

    I don’t think the Yankees are players at all. They’re going to give up Hughes+ and give Peavy more money? Why would they do that when they can just sign Sabathia or Burnett or both?

    FWIW, I can see how the Pads might like a Samardzija/Pie/Cedeno+ package more than the one you list from the Braves.

  153. I have to agree with you again Stu (at 217). There is legitimate disagreement here on whether Escobar is untouchable, but I haven’t heard anyone here in favor of giving up a whole lot more than Escobar for Peavy.

  154. Stu,

    I don’t think it’s a guarantee that the Yankees get either Burnett or Sabathia, let alone both. The “keep the pitching prospects” strategy they had last year instead of getting Santana was, to put it mildly, a disappointment. Granted, they are probably not players, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see them jump in if the Sabathia/Burnett plans go awry.

    As for that Cubs offer. I initially dismissed it, but looking at their numbers, those players are better than I thought. I still think that they are more of loose change parts instead of major league contributors. (especially Cedeno) The Padres have said that their stated preference is pitching, so I guess it would depend on how they viewed Samardzija.

    In any case, I think if we get outbid after offering a legitimate package, so be it. What I do know is that if we pull a Kazmir for Zambrano trade, I will be an extremely bitter person for a while.

    Well, as bitter as you can get about baseball; it is just a game lol

  155. In any case, I think if we get outbid after offering a legitimate package, so be it. What I do know is that if we pull a Kazmir for Zambrano trade, I will be an extremely bitter person for a while.lol

    Completely agree.

    As for the Yanks and Santana, they didn’t have options like Burnett and Sabathia last year, did they?

  156. As for the Yanks and Santana, they didn’t have options like Burnett and Sabathia last year, did they?

    Good point. There is kind of a difference between Calos Silva and C.C. Sabathia.

    I do think that the Yankees are favored to probably pickup both of them, but you never know. If the Angels lose out on Tex they could jump in on Sabathia and the Nats were sixth in operating revenue last year; you figure that they’ll eventually spend it on something.

    Oh, apparently Michael Young won the GG this year. Posnanski is pretty pissed about it.

  157. Complete List:


  158. Jake Peavy Rumors: Thursday
    By Tim Dierkes [November 6 at 3:03pm CST]
    3:03pm: Peter Abraham says that Kevin Towers has told Peavy that he will be traded and that negotiations have been narrowed to three teams. The Yankees are not in the mix as all three clubs are in the NL. Abraham speculates that in addition to the Cubs and Braves, the third team could be the Astros or Cardinals.

  159. According to Ken Rosenthal,
    “The Braves’ package includes shortstop Yunel Escobar, either left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes or right-hander Charlie Morton and a third player, believed to be a top prospect, sources said.”

    The top prospect is rumoured to be Schafer.

    I really don’t see how anything the Cubs could offer comes close.

    Samardzija has a no trade clause he’s unlikely to waive btw.

  160. @228

    csg- That sounds like it will be “hello Peavy, goodbye Yunel.”

    I do not see how the Cubs, Cards, or Astros will offer a more attractive centerpiece or offer better backup players.

    I am okay with Yunel going for Peavy, but I am not okay with us including any other players that appear likely to be on the 2010 roster.

    Jordan Schafer is one of those players. I certainly hope that a package would not include both Yunel and Schafer.

  161. Bad trade. Given the shortage of elite pitching, it’s not as clear-cut as some would have it that Yunel is more valuable than Peavy. But Yunel and Schafer is too much.

  162. Maybe the top prospect is Flowers. I hope it’s Flowers. I’ll be upset if we trade Yunel for Peavy, but I’ll be really upset if we include Schafer, too.

    EDIT: Or, what Mac said.

  163. @229

    I’d do Esco-Reyes-Gorkys.

    They can have a lower level minors arm too, but not Rohrbough or Locke.

    Am I being unrealistic?

  164. “The Braves’ package includes shortstop Yunel Escobar, either left-hander Jo-Jo Reyes or right-hander Charlie Morton and a third player, believed to be a top prospect, sources said

    Fine, I hope they take Reyes over Morton, but who’s our shortstop now?

    If it’s Schafer, don’t think I’m on board

  165. Yeah, I would be okay with Morton over Reyes, since it will be difficult for either of them to pitch in our rotation at that point.

    I would be okay with Flowers instead of Gorkys, but I see more value in Flowers as insurance for Freeman than in Gorkys as insurance for Schafer.

  166. Gotta keep Schafer if you are giving up Yunel. And I would much prefer to see JoJo go instead of Morton. Hopefully it is Yunel, Jo Jo / Morton, and a Medlin or Marek type player.

    I agree with Mac, Yunel and Schafer is too much.

  167. I just think Gorkys is too far from major-league-ready to be enticing to the Pads. Flowers might be able to catch in the majors at some point in ’09.

  168. Interesting that that rumor floated up. I almost made a triple-post earlier to say that the maximum acceptable deal in my eyes would have been Escobar/JoJo/Medlen. The Pads get the two MLB-ready (or close) pitchers they want along with Escobar, and the Braves don’t give up any of their “next wave” guys.

    But I’m with what seems to be the consensus here: no way we should give up Schafer in a deal involving Escobar. That’s just too much.

    Also, I really don’t see how this deal happens without us getting Greene. Unless the Braves higher-ups just really don’t like him, it seems to me like that move makes too much sense not to happen. But if it doesn’t, I hope we go out and give Furcal 3-4 years at 12M.

  169. I heard on the radio a little while ago that we’re offering Escobar, Reyes or Morton, and a “high-level prospect.” Anyway, I still just don’t get why no one wants to get Peavy, and the apparent unanimity around here that the right thing to do is to sit on our freaking hands is really starting to bug me. We have one of the three best pitchers in baseball within our grasp, and we can get him without even trading our best prospects, apparently, and still people on here do not want to do it. It’s borderline ludicrous, in my opinion.

    Once again, not all of these players will be even decent Major Leaguers. In fact, most of them won’t probably. Escobar was good last year, but he had some issues as well, and I don’t think that we can say that he’s a can’t miss superstar who can’t be replaced. Plus, he’s older than most prospects at his level are because he was in Cuba, so it could be argued that he’ll never be more valuable than he is right now.

    And if we’re just lucky as hell, one of Morton and Reyes will be a No. 4 level starter tops and the other will be useless. If we’re not lucky, both will be useless. And then if we only have to throw in one of Schafer and Hernandez (who basically play the same position), or neither of them but a high-level pitching prospect who isn’t Hanson (although I wouldn’t mind even trading Hanson), we would be stupid to not do that deal. If we get Peavy, we are well on our way back into contention next year, and should be in the thick of it in 2010. If we do not get him, we will suck mercilessly next year and we might be back on the right track in 2010 only if all the prospects pan out, which, news flash…they won’t.

    Prospects are largely useless unless you trade them. It is up to your scouting department to figure out which ones you want to keep, and you trade the rest. That’s what you do. There is no point in keeping all your prospects, especially when you have money to spend. Peavy is better than any pitcher available on the free-agent market, and that includes Sabathia, in my opinion, but even if it doesn’t, we’ll never get Sabathia, so it might as well. He’s damn sure better than A.J. Burnett or Ben Sheets, and anyone who tries to tell me that he’s no better than Derek Lowe immediately gets committed to the psych ward. We have the chance to get him. There is absolutely zero reason not to do it, especailly since the Padres asking price has come down.

    All anybody sees though is each individual potential catastrophe 10 miles down the road. What if he blows out his elbow? What if Escobar becomes the next A-Rod? What if Schaefer and Hernandez both become superstars (never mind the fact that it would be retarded to keep both of them)? Based on the information we know right now, this is a deal that simply has to be made. This is a far better deal than the Tex deal was, and opinion on here was split 50-50 on that. Do not be a sissy, afraid to pull the trigger on any deal that carries the least bit of risk. And for God’s sake, stop overvaluing every single one of our prospects. They are not all untouchable, nor should they be.

  170. Dude, Yunel isn’t some old-for-his-level prospect. He was 25 last season, and he was our everyday SS, and he was 3rd in the majors in OBP at his position, and he was one of the two or three best defensive players in the league at the most important defensive position on the field.

    And Schafer and Hernandez may play the same position, but the former is at least one year closer to major-league-ready than the latter.

    Prospects are largely useless unless you trade them.

    This is such a ridiculous comment, I don’t even know how to respond. I’ll try, though: Smoltz, Chipper, McCann and Jurrjens used to be prospects.

  171. For the Cubs to be frontrunner, Towers has to have pretty horrible scouting as it means people like Pie, Cedeno and Rich Hill are valued highly.

    I think the Cubs are being used to drive up the price or something. Seriously, they have nothing.

    I heard on the radio a little while ago that we’re offering Escobar, Reyes or Morton, and a “high-level prospect.” Anyway, I still just don’t get why no one wants to get Peavy, and the apparent unanimity around here that the right thing to do is to sit on our freaking hands is really starting to bug me. We have one of the three best pitchers in baseball within our grasp, and we can get him without even trading our best prospects, apparently, and still people on here do not want to do it. It’s borderline ludicrous, in my opinion.

    Agreed 100%. Make the Peavy trade.

    I’d see if the Padres would take Hernandez over Schafer, but still a trade that doesn’t involve Hanson or Heyward for a 27 year old Cy Young award-winning ace pitcher? Yeah, do it.

  172. Isn’t Greene only under contract for one year?

    That pure salary dump should lessen the price in prospects going the other way. I like this strategy for the Braves assuming the contracts don’t hurt us in 2010.

    I would also support trading a minor leaguer for Andruw Jones and Matt Kemp.

  173. I realize that there is a premium for exceptional starting pitching. I am not sure it is worth it, but the market certainly reflects this.

    If we had an obvious replacement for Yunel that was comparably cost controlled, I would make the deal with him in it. Like last year when the Braves traded Renteria knowing that Escobar would probably be a little worse with the bat and a little better with the glove and worst case he costs a game or two (in fact, Yunel probably was 3 or 4 games better), but you free up 8 million AND pick up 2 assets (one of whom, Jair, was better than I thought). However, with Infante, we probably drop 2 to 3 games, but more importantly, next year is, I believe, his last arb year.

    My criticism is with an approach that doesn’t properly value a proven above average (to possibly occasional major league ALL Star) shortstop with one or 2 years of major league minimum followed by 3 or 4 years of arbitration eligibility.

    You have to get “win shares” somewhere. You have to pay for them. Whenever you have an asset that is cheap, that is worth a lot for a barely above mid market (face it guys) team. It keeps you from buying win shares on the open market.

    Braves need to build from firmly above average players with upside, home grown or traded for as prospects, and then supplement with one or two exceptional free agents targeted based on where the holes are in the minor league system.

    Plus, I smell the hand of Bobby Cox wanting to punish and move out players that don’t ledge allegiance to his system. We keep letting guys go because Cox isn’t confident in them or they “aren’t Braves type players” or don’t go after free agents because they “aren’t Braves type players”. Moving Escobar with other useful talent for Peavy would symbolize that.

  174. And then there’s this:

    According to the Arizona Republic, the rumor going around the GM meetings this morning was Jake Peavy to the Braves for Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez and a young pitcher not named Tommy Hanson.

  175. Gorkys is probably a better fit for the Padres than he is for the Braves. In that park, you need a centerfielder who can really run, and it’s such a low-power environment that if he never develops much (and we don’t know yet if he will) he wouldn’t hurt the team so much.

  176. Yunel for Peavy would really eat into our available funds. We would have to sign a FA shortstop (prob around $5-10 million). That or we ruin our farm system even more and trade for one.

    I’m all for trading Kelly where we would plug in an in-house, cheap replacement (Prado), but giving up Yunel with nothing to replace him with just shifts the problem while sucking up money.

  177. If Escobar is traded, I say go with Lillibridge. He may not hit much, but you won’t see much of a drop-off on defense.

    Just not Omar Infante and his five errors and .935 fielding percentage at shortstop this past season in 20 games (15 games started.) Infante looked absolutely terrible on defense at that position.

  178. What was Infante’s defensive rep prior to last season? I’m thinking he can’t be any worse there than Edgar Renteria—maybe more errors, but certainly more range—who may well be the target now.

  179. I had Infante and Lillibridge in mind and I still stand by that we don’t have any in-house replacements.

    Say what you want about Prado’s defense, but he can hit well for a 2b. Infante is much more valuable in a utility role and mostly for backing up Chipper’s inevitable injuries. Lillibridge hasn’t done anything, nor does he look that promising.

  180. I kind of agree that we would be better off trading KJ than Yunel, but that does not appear to be what the Pads want. I think we are a better team over the next 5 years with Peavy rather than Escobar.

    I am thinking the Braves foresee Brandon Hicks at shortstop in a couple of years. He has power and he can pick it. He has a little strikeout problem to work out though.

  181. I also would rather see Lillibridge every day, rather than Infante. Makes me shudder a little, though.

    At least we would still have Norfante on the bench.

  182. Doesn’t it seem pretty silly of the Cardinals to be apparently offering Ludwick in a deal for Holliday? Why not just keep the much cheaper version (or give him to us)?

  183. I am thinking the Braves foresee Brandon Hicks at shortstop in a couple of years. He has power and he can pick it. He has a little strikeout problem to work out though.

    I know you’re being slightly facetious, but Hicks’s strikeout problem is bigger than little. I don’t believe in him at all right now — right now he’s Cody Johnson less power.

  184. Trading Yunel or Escobar is a mistake.

    When you are a team with a limited payroll, and we are, the only way you win is to field a team that has some players who are worth more than they cost, which allows you to fill holes in your roster with players who cost more than they are worth (i.e. free agents).

    Escobar’s value exceeds his worth by more than Peavy’s value exceeds his worth. Now, an ace pitcher is worth more than a good shortstop to be sure, but currently we have a hole in the rotation and not at shortstop. I don’t see the point in filling one hole by creating another, especially if the new hole created was previously a spot that was perfectly filled. Even more so if we lose prospects in the process.

    We are in a great spot to have a roster full of players who are either worth more than they cost, or at least are very close (McCann is another one, Chipper as well if healthy enough).

    Escobar is the kind of player a team like us needs to keep in order to win. We also need Peavy’s, but thats why we have a payroll of $100million. Its still limited, but its high enough to fill the holes if we are smart about building our roster. Escobar is no prospect, he is a very valuable major leaguer, because he is good, getting better, and costs little.

    Our options look like this to me:

    A) Plug hole in rotation by stuffing it with money.

    B) Plug hole in rotation by stuffing it with a combination of slightly less money, the peg previously filling the shortstop hole, and valuable prospects that might soon plug other holes.

  185. I should know this (or take the time to look it up) but …

    Is Raffy a free agent this year?

    And I really, really don’t understand anyone wanting Andruw back. At any price. Free. With cash.

  186. Furcal is a FA that just turned down a 2yr/25-30 deal. I dont think he’s on our radar. That would be adding Peavy and Furcal for around 30 mil. Might as well keep Escobar and add CC for that price

  187. hankonly –

    Are you referring to my offer of a minor leaguer for Andruw and Matt Kemp?

    I sure hope you understand why I would do that (and the Dodgers would not).

  188. I’ll say it again: Boy, I hate the idea of dealing Yunel Escobar.

    I wonder if the organization has soured on him and his approach to the game, or if they genuinely feel as if he’s easily replaced.

    If it’s the latter, I just don’t see it.

  189. Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Casey Kotchman for Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzales. I will get a link up ASAP. This is just in!!!!

  190. Since it doesn’t take 10 minutes to find a link, I’m assuming Biff is bogus.

    However, I do make that trade.

  191. Maybe Biff stole the flux capacitor and is reporting from the future, and there just isn’t a link yet.

  192. Biff is obviously bogus. But seriously, that trade would be mega-awesome. I would do Schafer + Kotchman for AGonzalez alone every day of the week, and Escobar for Peavy straight-up is value for us too.

  193. I did read a rumor that the Padres offered the Braves Jake Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez for Casey Kotchman and Brian McCann….but that was on some blog and is obviously not true.

    @271: Biff, you would have had me if you just said Peavy. But the Gonzalez is completely not believable.

  194. If the deal is to be Yunel, Morton, Schafer, and Locke, then I prefer we don’t get Peavy at all.

  195. Yeah, I’m basically with kc. Gorkys is nice, but I prefer Schafer, and I’d much rather give away JoJo than Morton. Morton I see as a guy with great stuff who has still got a shot to become a mid-to-top of the rotation guy if he gets his head on straight. JoJo is mostly back of the rotation filler at this point, although I think SD could get some solid value out of him over the next few years.

  196. Regarding that Diamondbacks thing linked a while back: if they want a 2B so badly, I think we can give them Martin Prado for Miguel Montero. :-)

  197. I don’t know that Morton and JoJo’s chances of becoming good starters are any different, but if they can’t do that, Morton has the stuff of a bigtime reliever, while JoJo could never be more than a secondary LOOGY.

  198. Some good stuff in Mark Bowman’s latest piece.

    “There has been previous speculation that Jordan Schafer, the Braves top outfield prospect, might be included in a package for Peavy. But one San Diego source described the Padres interest in Schafer as “lukewarm”.”

    From their limited time in the majors, I’d say Morton’s biggest advantage over Reyes is mental. I was really impressed with his debut and how he coped with some situations. Reyes could be good, but he needs to get off the path Horacio Ramirez and Chuck James got on of being too scared to throw it in the strikezone.

  199. I agree with KC and mraver; however, if you’d replace Yunel with KJ and Morton with JoJo, I’d do the rest of 284.

  200. Rather embarrassingly, Tommy Hanson gave up a solo shot tonight and only struck out 11 in 5 innings. He gave up another hit too to raise his total for the AFL to 6.

  201. It does seem that the org has soured on Yunel. Sad really, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go at this point.

  202. #291

    How humiliating for him.

    Seriously, don’t you shut him down now? How much longer does this league play?

  203. I don’t think it’s so much that the organisation has soured on Escobar, it’s that they think it’s worthwhile giving him up in this trade. Towers seemed to push hard for him after it became apparent Hanson was off the table.

    All other rumours about Escobar seem to have been shot down with comments like “The Braves valued him very highly” or “consider him a future all star”.

  204. “Another Slamerino!”

    To be fair, it is hard to recognize Tommy Hanson without the bandage across his partner’s nose.

  205. When was the last time we were so excited about a Braves pitching prospect? I honestly can not remember…not even Kyle despite his good minor league track record…

  206. #289

    Good, as far as I know, Schafer is every bit as good a centerfielder as Gorkys. Schafer’s problem is mainly on the Ks and his ability to hit lefties. Gorkys’s problem is his lack of power. I will take Schafer over Gorkys any day.

  207. No trade yet? I’ll take that as good news for the moment.

    Saw a pretty good rock show tonight: Drive-By Truckers & The Hold Steady.

  208. ububba, i am not too familiar with the Drive-By Truckers, if I were to get an album, which one should I buy?

  209. oldtimer,
    Hmmm, since you seem to have a grip on a lotta music from south of the Mason-Dixon, I’d say Southern Rock Opera.

    A “concept” double-album loaded with great songs, it’s the story of Lynyrd Skynyrd (its rise & demise) intertwined with a cultural history of The South, north Alabama in particular, complete with deep references to George Wallace & the Muscle Shoals studios.

    Our fellow poster urlhix plays bass on it and, yes, it rocks.

  210. Yup, Decoration Day is really, really strong. Jason really comes into his own on that one; “Outfit” is one of my all-time favorite songs. Can’t go wrong with that one at all, but I’m just trying to give him a starting point.

    Ever see The Hold Steady? Great live band.

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