Well, except for the scars

Kotsay’s surgically repaired back looks fine | ajc.com

Let’s just say I’m taking a wait-and-see approach on this one. Luckily, I have a history of back injuries which will assist in my Method.

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48 thoughts on “Well, except for the scars”

  1. Over half the respondents in the poll alongside that article believe Kotsay will outperform Andruw this year. I’m all for hope springing eternal, but….no.

  2. He’ll at least outperform him on the batting average and OPS overall, if healthy, but definitely not in homers or slugging.

    All on Andruw’s 2007 numbers of course.

  3. Kotsay has never had a higher OPS than Andruw in any season. In fact, from 1998-2006, Andruw never had a lower OPS than Kotsay’s career high (829).

  4. Over half the respondents in the poll alongside that article believe Kotsay will outperform Andruw this year. I’m all for hope springing eternal, but….no.

    The AJC – the newspaper of choice for the batshit insane.

  5. sansho1,

    I was basing it off of what a healthy Kotsay could do over Andruw’s awful 2007 season. Kotsay can hit over a .724 OPS.

  6. What numbers will Druw have to post to win Comeback Player of the Year? Count it!

    I just hope those bloops falling in front of Kotsay and his scrub boys don’t happen as frequently as I fear, else it’s going to be a long sad season.

  7. It does mean, however, that the Hawks can’t keep both Smith and Childress this offseason. Childress is probably the odd man out; he’s become a much better player than I ever thought he would.

  8. It looks like a pretty good deal. Bibby may be on the decline, but it’s inarguable that he’s at least a legit point guard who can shoot the 3. The best part about it is not having to give up (this season, anyway) anybody who could reasonably help get into the playoffs.

    I’m not going to sing hosannas to Billy Knight, though. Mike Bibby should not be worth the number five pick in the 2006 draft by himself, except that BK used the pick on Shelden Williams.

  9. Over half the respondents in the poll alongside that article believe Kotsay will outperform Andruw this year.

    All Mark Kotsay has to do to be an upgrade from 2007 is hit better than .222/.311/.413

  10. #13

    True, but that wasn’t the question. The question was who would perform better in 2008.

    Stat wonk alert: Baseball Prospectus 2008 player forecasts are out. They predict a very close OPS race between Mark Kotsay and Andruw Jones, but Jones barely ekes out a 147 point advantage:

    Kotsay: .258/.325/.358
    Jones: .256/.344/.486

  11. Where’s Jeff Gillooly when you really need him?

    Seriously, I’m not sure whether to root for Kotsay’s being healthy or not- Blanco would probably be better, but Anderson seems more liekly to be next in line and is probably even worse.

  12. Mac, I don’t have any opportunity to watch the Hawks play over here on this side of the planet, but if you have to pick between Marvin Williams and Childress, which one will you pick to keep?

  13. Considering the number of rookie contracts the Hawks have on the team, I think it’s inevitable one or two will have to leave. While Childress is a great sixth man off the bench, somebody will pay him starter money when he reaches FA.

  14. However, it’s also possible that the Hawks will trade Bibby in this offseason for more draft picks and hand the starting PG spot to Law. The Hawks will be able to keep both Joshes that way.

  15. KC–I think that Andruw will be popular in LA, but Dodger Stadium cannot be good for his offensive stats. Still, I think that he will be boom or bust….

  16. Because of the Braves’ big starting pitching surplus.

    Outside of 1-3, they got Hampton, Bennett and Jo-Jo Reyes and Jurrjens. Who needs James? What could go wrong?

    That inspires plenty of confidence, right? Right?

  17. We’re forgetting something HUGELY important for our team at this particular time in terms of the Kotsay vs. Andruw comparisons: cost. Andruw’s making $18.1M this year and Kotsay will make $2M. That is HUGE considering that $16.1M got us Glavine, and allows for arbitration raises to Soriano, Diaz, and others, including contract raises to Smoltz and Hudson. We can talk about who will come up with the bigger stats all we want, but I’d rather have Kotsay, Glavine, and raises that will kept 4 or 5 other players than Andruw Jones. We act like it’s just straight Kotsay’s stats vs. Andruw’s stats, as if both players’ contexts are identically similar. Well, they’re not. Andruw would have killed us financially, and Kotsay allowed a ton more financial flexibility. Count it.

  18. I agree Rob. Besides, I got tired of seeing Andruw up there in key spots last year and do NOTHING. I am sure Kotsay could outperform Andruw of last year. And for those who want to point to Andruw’s homerun totals – tell me how many of those homeruns came in games that we actually NEEDED the homerun. He either always did it when we were 5 runs down in the 9th or 6 runs ahead in the 7th. Now his defense – that’s another story, it will be sorely missed. But as Rob said, you can’t compare the 2 of them by stats alone. The money saved helped us where our team lacked the most last year.

  19. I never said I thought we were worse off as a team — I just think the response to the specific question in the poll is laughable, that’s all.

  20. Trading James?

    The only problem with that is that we lose Hampton and Glavine after the season. I know the jury is still out on him, but Chuck James might have significant value for this team in 2009.

    Wouldn’t we be selling low, too?

  21. How the Braves trade James when they need him in the starting rotation after Hampton gets hurt checking his e-mail?

  22. Andruw would have killed us financially, and Kotsay allowed a ton more financial flexibility.

    Yeah crappy players don’t cost much. Thanks for the insight. With all that financial flexability we were able to get a 40 year old pitcher on a one year deal and gave our first round pick to our division rival. What a steal.

  23. And we were able to retain several other players in arbitration that we may not otherwise have done. It’s a decent trade-off if you ask me.

  24. Robert, do you just go from one argument to another without actually solving anything? Are you really trying to go back to whether Glavine was a good signing or not? You have argument ADD. And even if you don’t like the Glavine signing, that still is irrelevant to my original point that Kotsay’s presence in centerfield gives us financial flexibility. You also neglected the fact that Kotsay instead of Andruw allowed us to give raises to guys like Soriano and Diaz, who we can all agree will help us tremendously this year.

  25. I’m on Robert’s page too. And no, Kotsay won’t even outperform 2007 Andruw. I think the 683 OPS BP is projecting will be closer to the mark. He should be paying the Braves for a chance to play.

    As for the Hawks, isn’t it possible to add a one-year extension for Childress – he’s a restricted free agent, not unrestricted – sign Smith longterm, and then trade Marvin Williams for a big man or draft pick? I actually would rather keep Childress than Marvin, as Childress will ultimately cost less while Marvin’s trade value is gonna be high this offseason.

  26. The Hawks will be way over the cap (according to Hollinger on ESPN.com) if they re-sign Smith, and could come dangerously close to the luxury tax if they signed Childress as well.

    The main thing is to re-sign Smith, of course. He’s nuts, and the Hawks might hold that against him, or he could decide he’ll take less money to get out of Atlanta.

  27. I don’t care how much of a bargain Kotsay is compared to ’07 Andruw. I would have rather had Blanco at a better bargain and kept Devine & Jamie Richmond.

  28. I gotta say I’m on the same page as Rob and Sam. If he could go back to his 2005 numbers, even his 2006 numbers, that would definitely be a bargain, and its not impossible that he does that. He’s only one year removed from decent numbers, and there are plenty of players who have bounced back from an injury. We got Glavine, keep Soriano for 2 years, and give raises to guys like Diaz. I’m not saying its the best deal ever, but I think its best we wait and see what happens.

  29. I just don’t see the Braves starting with three LHP plus a lot of comments I am reading, mind you most of it from DOB, indicates that the Braves really like Jurrjens.

  30. Trade Smith for a good Big Man who’s young. Bynum at the Lakers? Maybe they’re THAT stupid (I love Kupchek for the UNC connection, but the guy’s a pretty mediocre GM) and resign Childress and make Marvin Williams happy; cause he’s gonna be a BEAST in a year or two when he would have graduated from school.

    Smith is nuts.

  31. Looks like Kelly Johnson is in demand:

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

    Since I have blasted Wrenn’s most recent trades, I will give him credit for hanging on to KJ.

    Otherwise, I agree with Parish, Robert and Adam M. about Andruw v. Kotsay….

    #31–I am also unhappy about losing the draft pick for Glavine. Can someone tell me why Wrenn could not have waited until after December 1 to sign Glavine? As I understand the rules, waiting about 10 days would have saved our pick…

  32. Stephen,

    Because the Mets had come to an agreement with Glavine that they would offer him arbitration and he would decline, so he could go to the Braves. Since they were going to offer him arbitration, we would have lost the pick anyway; the only way we would not have lost the pick is if we waited and they did not offer arbitration.

  33. Nathan–Thanks. I guess I believe that the Mets would not have offered Glavine arbitration, but perhaps the Braves knew differently.

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