SEC picks, week 8

Home teams in italics! Feel the excitement!

Alabama 98, Tennessee 0
Kentucky 38, Florida 35
South Carolina 26, Vandy 13
Mississippi 28, Arkansas 6
LSU 27, Auburn 17
West Virginia 50, Mississippi St. 13

86 thoughts on “SEC picks, week 8”

  1. re: trading for Drew and Crisp from last thread

    Why get both when all we really need is Crisp for a year or two to play solid CF while we figure out which combination of Diaz, Brandon Jones, Francoeur, and possibly Thorman or Lillibridge we want to play in the outfield?

  2. I think you’re a little off on the UT-Bama score. Try 34-21 Tennessee. Yeah, that sounds a little more realistic.

    Also, I think Mississippi State will give West Virginia a pretty good game. Say 31-28 West Virginia.

  3. I think Kentucky is a good team this year, but you have to think they would lose to LSU in a rematch (and probably lose 7 or 8 out of 10 against LSU). But if they beat Florida this weekend (which is possible) then I’ll really start to be worried about that November 24th UT @ UK game. I mean, can Kentucky really be that good? Dickity, highly dubious.

  4. I don’t particularly want to rent Crisp, because Schafer and Brandon Jones will probably be ready before 2010, when his contract expires. He can’t really hit. But I wouldn’t object too strenuously — he can pick it, and he’s fast and pesky and all that.

    Drew, on the other hand, I have a real problem with. We got a great year out of him, but we dodged a bullet. He has made an enemy out of every single fan base he has ever played for except for us. He’s signed to an exorbitant long-term contract he’ll never be healthy enough to justify, and he’ll clog an outfield that could be filled with young cheap guys in a couple years.

  5. @9 AAR,

    I kind of disagreed on your post on Drew, and then I looked him up to make sure.

    Drew’s three year average is strong, but not great (OPS .860). Taking out this year as an outlier pushes it to near 900. Even this year his OPS was 75 points higher than Andruw (.796). He also played 140 games this year.

    However, he has become a rich man’s version of Jacques Jones. His three year against lefthanders is 660, this year 580. He loses BA and ISO (drops to like 120), but not much drop on the walks.

    If we took the three years he has left at a Renteria like 40 % discount that would put him like 8,700,000. That really wouldn’t be a bad deal, IF Bobby and Smoltz and Chipper would want him. We could let him partial platoon and sit against many lefties.

    Then, we would just need to find an extra Matt Diaz or make Escobar our modern day Jerry Royster.

  6. Crisp will probably be pretty cheap. The Sox want to start Ellsbury, Crisp is playing like crap this post-season, and there are tons of CFs on the FA market. If the Braves send a low-level prospect, they’d probably be able to get Crisp; I really don’t think Boston is going to want him back next year.

    In other news, damn, that Renteria trade was a good’n!

  7. I’ll jump on the Crisp for cheap bandwagon. I’ve kind of been a fan of his since I started playing MVP2005, he’s always done well on there. I know it doesnt translate to real life, but he’s got the tools to be a good centerfielder. We saw this season that we dont have to have a big year offensivley from CF, but I’d like to keep the top notch defense out there. Besides, anyone named after one of my favorite cereals when I was a kid gets my vote…

  8. sign me up for crisp too. all though if we don’t need him to produce offense then isn’t he about the same as willie?

    war eagle!

  9. Congrats Stu, my wife is studying here in Florida, I know how tought that is….

    Beedee….Crisp is a true CF, while Harris is IF by trade

  10. Congratulations, Stu! That must be a load off of your mind: I’ve got another week before I find out.

  11. Stu,

    Best of luck in the profession. It is usually a pain in the derriere, but occasionally quite enjoyable.

  12. Congratulations, Stu! Give ’em hell. Everything I know about the law I learned in A Few Good Men, so I assume it will be just about equally as awesome as that for you.

  13. Here’s a really nice interview with Paul Byrd about his faith. I didn’t expect much from reading an article about an athlete who’s religious — he wouldn’t be the first — but actually, he’s humble, has a really good perspective on his faith, and pretty funny. I like this passage:

    I’ve been on a team where a guy shows no passion, and he says, “God meant for me to give up that home run.” I’m like, “What does that mean? God didn’t hang the slider, you hung the slider.” That’s not going to go over well with teammates. You’re not going to turn anybody over to Christ with that attitude. I think if Christ goes into second base to break up a double play, he’ll do it cleanly, but he’ll try to knock the guy into left field. Look, I don’t bring a lot to the table. I throw 82, had different shoulder surgeries. But I compete with what God gave me. I get angry when I give up a home run. I’m passionate about the game and I’m not into using God as a scapegoat. People hide behind religion.

  14. Kevin,
    From your previous thread…I have no idea what Yankee fans think right now because I’m in Amsterdam. I know way more about Heineken & Van Gogh this week. Will give a pinstripe report when I return.

    My take on Torre: The Yanks lowballed him on purpose because they knew he’d reject the offer.

    Stu,
    Congrats. Next stop, ACLU, right?

  15. Um, Mac where did you get that Arkansas Ole Miss prediction?

    I think Oregron’s yearly playing of Alabama close has clouded your judgment.

    They still can’t tackle and Arkansas still has Felix and Darren. They’ve killed us the last two years.

  16. I’m a Paul Byrd fan. He had a pretty solid year for us in 2004 too. My favorite Byrd story:

    When he made the All-Star team in 1999, the game was held in Boston’s Fenway Park. Paul took his Dad out to dinner the night before the game, but they decided it would be fun to put the reservation under his father’s name.

    So they’re waiting for their table when the announcement comes: “Table for Larry Byrd. Larry Byrd, your table is ready.”

    Of course, the entire restaurant stops and rubbernecks while he and his Dad crack up.

    And of course, they pulled it a few more times that weekend.

    That’s pretty funny to me for some reason.

  17. Yeah Mac I kind of feel the same about the Rebels. All week long all any body has talked about or seen in the paper is stories about the call. I think its taking a huge gust out of their sails and they won’t go into the game as prepared as they should because they wasted the week watching it over and over.

    Oh well. I’m leaving to see the game in person.

  18. Wryn says:
    Tennessee 31, ALABAMA 30
    Florida 42, KENTUCKY 27
    SOUTH CAROLINA 28, Vanderbilt 10
    Arkansas 24, OLE MISS 13
    Auburn 27, LSU 24 (OT)
    WEST VIRGINIA 35, Mississippi State 27

    The real question about the LSU/Auburn game is what cute clever nickname will this game have..

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Auburn_LSU_rivalry

    I’ll go out on a limb and say this one will be known as “The Time Tiger Stadium Was Nice” and LSU students don’t cuss out the other team, throw beer on them, etc. After the OT loss, LSU students revolt and go back to their normal selves in a week or two.

  19. Thanks for the kind words, everyone.

    jea,

    I’m sure you’ll be fine. You were definitely better than me at law school, and I have no doubt that it will translate into the big exam. (It is a huge relief to be done, BTW. You’ll feel it soon.)

    Parish,

    No, only undergrad at Vandy. Went to UGA for law school. Came back to Nashville to practice.

    ububba,

    Based on your sarcastic question, I’m guessing this will probably surprise you, but I work for what is predominantly a labor and employment law firm here in Nashville. (I actually will be doing a lot of work representing local water utility districts, which is a bit different.)

  20. Stu–I just got up so please accept the late Congrulations! Let me add best of luck in your legal career. A good move to return to Nashville–it is a great place to live.

    Go Vandy!!

  21. Stu;
    It comes as no surprise that someone with such reasoned arguments might choose the Law as his discpline and life. All the Best!

    ububba;
    My trips to Amsterdam in the late 80’s forever changed my notions of what can be bought and sold. And what I was willing to purchase!
    Thanks for your thoughts. You’re more lucid than I’d be if I were there.

    Bobby Cox was quoted on ESPN News this morning about Torre. Has anyone heard any rumor about Joe rejoining the Braves organization?

  22. I can only add that it was a good thing that I was on a student budget when I visited Amsterdam in the early 90s…

  23. Where will the Braves play next year when Atlanta runs out of water? Holy crap I’m scared about what’s going on there.

  24. I’m not really buying the whole “$5 million is an insult” comment. Torre’s comment, too, is an insult to teachers and just about everyone else in this country. This is one more reason I hate the offseason: not only do we have no baseball, all the discussion is over money, finances, the ‘necessary evils’ of sports as big business.

    As for Torre rejoining the Braves, isn’t the movement to get younger, get with the times, not add another 67-year old? Torre always reminded me of Bobby: a mediocre game tactitioner who remained loyal, often to a fault, to his guys. We know how this pays dividends over time, but it can also result in Bernie Williams playing two-to-three years longer than he should – and starting, no less.

  25. Congrats Stu, even 20 years later, I can still remember the great feeling of finishing and passing the bar.

    As for Torre, you have to keep the money in perspective–everything is relative. CEOs make something like 100 times what the average employee makes. By Torre’s standard, a pay cut is an insult–not because of the absolute amount but because of what it says about what they think of him. If you esteem someone, you don’t cut their salary. They made it pretty clear they don’t want him back.

  26. Many people who have led a team to 12 straight years of postseason play with 4 titles would find a 30% pay cut and a one year contract disrespectful.

  27. Joe Torre for the ’90s Yankees was a right place, right time sort of guy. I doubt he’ll have that kind of success elsewhere. No knock on the guy — he’s a great manager, but he’ll never be in a situation that ideally suited to his abilities again.

  28. But yeah, being offered a massive pay cut and a one-year temporary contract after winning four World Series and 9 straight division titles is more than a slap in the face — it’s a deliberate provocation. Anyone would have the right to be offended.

  29. Nice job, Alabama. Nice job, Vanderbilt. Now do your job, Florida…

    Sorry for another late one, but congratulations, Stu!

  30. Stu, you’re on a roll now. Play the lottery.

    Well, I was dead-wrong about the UT/Bama game.

    But I should try to cash in on this relative good fortune sometime soon, before I make my first court appearance (read: embarrass myself) and before Vandy loses to Miami of Ohio next weekend, thereby undoing all these warm fuzzies.

  31. Unfortunately, Alabama didn’t beat UT 98-0. If coaches were graded though, I would think Saban outvaoched Fulmer at least 98-0.

    It’s more and more obvious that shula could never have taken Bama to the next level. In a big game like this you have to take chances and do things to give your team confidence. Shula played the big games not to lose and had a record of about 1-13 in those games (UT, LSU, Auburn, Fla).

  32. The big sequence was the first Tennessee drive of the second half, coming after they held Alabama three-and-out. They got two first downs, had third-and-one around midfield, then were held to no gain, or a short loss. And Fulmer punted. They essentially didn’t stop Alabama again, and had only one drive of any consequence (which ended on the interception).

  33. Fan pleads guilty to bomb threat at Braves game

    Frustrated Giants fan facing 50 years in jail for trying to disrupt game

    We’ve all been there.

    Our beloved team is headed for a humiliating trouncing. We shake our fists at the TV in frustration, we mumble obscenities, we strike deals with God for a miracle.

    But we rarely go to the lengths that San Francisco Giants fan Dante Suguitan did to turn a game around.

    Federal prosecutors in Atlanta said Suguitan used his personal cellphone — registered in the name of “SF Giants Fan” — to call in several bomb threats from California to Turner Field in the summer of 2005.

    He did so, Suguitan told authorities, because he wanted to “intimidate players and affect the outcome of the game series.”

    During the game on Aug. 10, stadium security received a phone call. “This is a warning,” the caller said, according to a criminal complaint. “There is a bomb right by the Giants dugout … It is set to go off in about a half hour.”

    Suguitan, 39, who delivered newspapers for a living, had been arrested by Fremont police Aug. 18 on an outstanding warrant for failing to register as a sex offender. His public defender, Matthew Dodge, said the charge stemmed from Suguitan making harassing phone calls to high school girls.

    http://www.ajc.com/sports/content/sports/braves/stories/2007/10/19/bravesbomb_1020.html

  34. Mac,
    Did you get the new version of Rocky Top I sent you? Now wouldn’t be a bad time to post it if you want to.

  35. Five of the top 10 have lost or are losing this weekend (USF, SoCar, UK, Cal, LSU) and a sixth is tied (Oregon). Maybe this is some sort of coordinated protest against the BCS…

  36. I will give Les Miles respect after he admits to stealing that 8-year-old’s baseball cap and give it back..

  37. Great win for LSU and it is nice see that Auburn has fully returned to being a power…

    I had to watch Indiana-Penn State and during the game Andre Ware went through a list of Heisman hopefuls–one of which is actually in the Braves’ farm system. Does anybody remember Dennis Dixon (5th round)?

    http://www.minorleaguebaseball.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?n=Dennis%20Dixon&pos=&sid=milb&t=p_pbp&pid=453302

    Dixon is having a monster year for Oregon. He will probably never play for the Braves, but at least it shows that the organization is capable of getting a player who may win the Heisman….

  38. Well, you have to admit that was a pretty ballsy call if Miles knew he had a timeout left.

    No, you don’t. If the pass falls incomplete and time expires, Miles is roasted. It was a low percentage play and atrocious clock management. He got lucky, simple as that. I give him no credit.

  39. If it’s true, I hope he owns up to it quick. Maybe people will forgive and forget faster if that scenario comes to pass.

  40. My Sooners barely pulled off that win against Iowa State. I was really pulling for Auburn last night. Les Miles = Loser

  41. I’ll say it so JC doesn’t have to… there is no evidence whatsoever that HGH does anything to help athletes.

    What everyone seems to be ignoring about the end of the LSU-Auburn game is that LSU’s kicker isn’t very good, and hasn’t hit from longer than 38 this year. The kick would have been for 40. A lot of Miles’ “gambles” have been in order to hide his kicker’s shortcomings.

  42. So what is your response to Paul Byrd admitting to using HGH, Mac? Apathy? Personally, with JC’s research and interviews in mind, I don’t really care who gets caught with HGH until they prove it increases performance.

  43. Also, there would have been time left on the clock to try a kick if the pass fell incomplete. Dude caught the ball with 4 seconds left, and the LSU clock operator let it run down to 1. If it were incomplete, there would have been time left. It was a very good play call, IMO.

  44. Will Carrol had a great podcast/interview recently with the science director of the world anti-doping agency. They discussed the current state of performance enhancing techniques and what might be coming down the pike. I found it fascinating, ymmv.

    Link to audio.

  45. In response to the above comments about everything ‘being relative,’ that was precisely my point: it would be nice if one of these guys would keep perspective before acting the martyr. I’d actually think he’d be just as insulted, or moreso, by the ridiculous pressures put on him by his boss in the media. A paycut is unacceptable to most of these guys, but my guess is he would have never been able to come back even with the right salary.

    Oh, and I never said Torre didn’t have the right to be upset; I just don’t have the obligation to care. To be honest, I think the Yankees should move on… he was, AAR said, a great manager in the right place at the right time, but there are quite a few others I’d rather have managing my team right now, let alone the exorbitant salary he obviously would have – needed to have – commanded.

  46. Ugh. The Red Sox have a flair for the dramatic. The Rockies will show their true colors this week.

  47. A few days ago the Rockies were supposed to be unstoppable and would beat whichever team came out of the AL because Colorado has lost one game in the last 3 weeks. Now I hear all the ESPN pundits saying the Red Sox are unstoppable because they won 3 in a row (after falling behind 1-3 in the same series). Apparently amnesia is a requirement to analyze baseball on TV.

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