Splitting the ticket

I wanted to note something that some people may not be aware of… The presence of directly comparable players on the Hall of Fame ballot tends to depress the vote totals for all. For example, two pitchers we’re all familiar with:

National Baseball Hall of Fame – History of BBWAA Voting (Phil Niekro)
National Baseball Hall of Fame – History of BBWAA Voting (Don Sutton)

Knucksie entered the ballot in 1993, Don one year later. Niekro started off with 65.72 percent of the vote, but fell to 60 when Sutton entered. Sutton started with 56.92. When Niekro finally made it in in 1997, it was clear that Sutton would make it the next year, and he did. It appears that a subset of Hall of Fame voters like to spread their votes around to different types of players. Some, for example, might have just one or two “outfielder votes”; if they’re voting for Jim Rice, they won’t vote for Andre Dawson, or Dave Parker, or Dale Murphy.

The result of this is that if Rice were to make it in, it would be good for the other outfielders on the ballot because there will be less competition. Since Rice’s candidacy is on his peak value being perceived as higher than the others, it might be especially good news for Murph, whose candidacy is even more peak value-based. Bruce Sutter’s election is great news for Rich Gossage, though he doesn’t seem to realize it, because he’s going to get some of Sutter’s votes in upcoming elections. He probably won’t get in on next year’s vote, but I’m pretty sure he will in the cycle after that.

29 thoughts on “Splitting the ticket”

  1. Can someone please explain to me why baseball is not going to be in the 2012 Olympics and yet there is lobbying going on to have bridge become an Olympic event?

    Bridge is not a sport. There is no way you can spin it to make it look like one. No one would watch it and it would be stupid.

    Of course, here’s a “huh” question of the day: If bridge DID become an Olympic sport, what sort of drug testing would they do?

  2. Yeah it sucks. I live in UK and only get see baseball when I am in the states – which isn’t that often. We win the Olympics and they kick baseball out ….. why on earth????

  3. I think that some locations can handle all of the facilities needed for baseball. Who cares about the Olympics anyways?

  4. Thank God he’s not [url=”http://mlb.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20060114&content_id=1295784&vkey=hotstove2005&fext=.jsp”]coming to Atlanta[/url]

    [blockquote]The Dodgers Saturday shored up their bullpen for the near-term (and maybe longer) by acquiring All-Star closer Danys Baez and former All-Star middle reliever Lance Carter from the Tampa Bay Devil Rays for young pitchers Edwin Jackson and Chuck Tiffany.[/blockquote]

  5. Okay, I have an off topic question for anybody who can help. First, a little history…
    I’ve loved baseball since I was a little kid (I’m 34 now). The Braves have always been my favorite. Part of the reason why I couldn’t wait to get my driver’s lisence was so I could get myself to games. A buddy of mine and I would get off work in the summers and go to Fulton County Stadium…we’d pay $4 for a general admission ticket and sit anywhere we wanted. We sat behind home plate, the outfield, the dugouts. The best place we found, however, was right by the bullpen. We used to get autographs there like crazy. I got Murphy, Pete Smith, Joe Boever, Dewayne Henry, Lonnie Smith. A mix of stars and non stars, but I didn’t care….I loved getting the autographs, and I still have every one of them to this day….even my Braves team checklist that Mike Stanton autographed as he let me know his picture wasn’t even on the card.
    So now that I’m older, I take my 7 year old daughter to as many Atlanta games as possible, and twice as many Rome games. She loves the game, and that makes us both happy. I still collect autographs. My schtick now is that I get the players to pose with my daughter, get the picture developed, and bring it back to a game later and have them sign the picture. They’re all personalized to my daughter, so they’re worthless to anybody but us….which I love. But the collector in me still wants an autograph or two. And thus my question:

    What kind of pen should you use on a baseball? I have a Chipper Jones on a ball in sharpie that is starting to bleed. I also have a Rome team ball from last year signed in ball point pen that looks faded already, even though it’s in a UV protective case. Some baseballs I use are official major league balls that I buy at Target (leather, I assume?), and some are dollar balls that I get at the local Dollar Tree (vinyl maybe?)

    Sorry for the ramble, and thanks to anybody who can help!

  6. This page has some advice on that.

    make sure you have more than one pen, since sometimes a player will absent-mindedly abscond with yours. Sharpies (indelible markers) are very good, write on all surfaces, and don’t smear. The gift shop at Legends Field thoughtfully stocks them. Another favorite type of pen is the “spraypaint marker” or “outliner”–you can buy them in stationery stores and office supply places. You have to shake these pens up before use, though, so it’s hard to keep them freshly shaken for use at a moments’ notice. They do show up nicely, gold or silver, on dark colored items (like a dark blue Yankee batting helmet, for example).

  7. Does anyone here have horse tranquilizers? I’m watching the Patriots game and I think I’ll need them in about 4 minutes if this keeps up in the 2nd half.

  8. That pass interference call was horrible.

    The DBacks signed Estrada to a $2 million contract fo the upcoming season. And to think some people were saying I was crazy to think he’d make more than $1 million.

  9. The interference call was bad, but not as bad as back-to-back fumbles. The Patriots are fortunate to be down only 7.

  10. Ben Watson is my new third-favorite NFL player. Wow, gotta love that effort.

    And I know this is a Braves site, but it’s a slow night. Humor me, folks.

  11. Sure, that interference call was a joke, but I just think of it as evening out all those calls the Pats have gotten the last couple of years.

    Karma doesn’t have hands to push off Asante Samuel, so it has to use Ashley Lelie’s.

  12. Mac, those people who think Estrada would make less than $1 million obviously have no clue about the arbitration process.

  13. All right, 5 turnovers. It’s not meant to be this year. But now the hard decision: who do I root for, Pittsburgh or Indy? I hate both of them. Probably Pittsburgh, because I love the “Peyton as playoff choker” storylines.

  14. The Pats imploded! That bad PI call I think set things in moton and they just fell apart. There were members of the defense arguing on the sidelines, I have never seen a Pats team do that. Oh well, the Broncos will get creamed next week by the Colts.

  15. Bridge is the only way I can get into the olympics!! It is a very addictive “game”!
    The reason it may get into the olympics is that lots of countries have very good bridge players, so it will be a tight contest, as opposed to baseball.

  16. I thought Estrada would get around $1.5 million. Giles only got $2.3 last season. Who’s Estrada’s agent?

  17. No I’m not!

    Speaking of last night, Ben Watson is my new third-favorite NFL player. Wow, gotta love that effort.

  18. Champ had to run 102 yards, Watson only had to do like 89.

    The real star of the game was Al Wilson.

    When Wilson was at UT in 97 durring the SEC Championship game Tennessee was down at half time to Auburn and wilson put Peyton Manning up on a wall and told him “Mr. Superstar, you will win this game.” Then he broke down and told all of the team and coahes that he had never played in a game for a title of any kind and he wasn’t going to loose. All of the Vols got fired up and Peerless Price said, “I didn’t want to win the game for me anymore, I wanted to win for Al.”

    Then in the 1998 National Title game Al Wilson told his teammates that they weren’t going to loose, he just wasn’t going to let it happen.

    Ask any Tennessee fan the main reason they won in 98, and they will tell you it was “Al Wilson.”

  19. Can someone please explain to me why jenny always posts off-topic and hijacks threads? Many, including myself, consider this to be extremely rude. When she did it the other day about three times on the same Dale Murphy thread, she was pissing on sacred ground.

    If you don’t like the topics being discussed, get your own blog.

  20. Nate, I thought I was the only one that noticed! Yes, it is extremely annoying. The baseball off-topic stuff is annoying, but the constant off-topic football comments really aggravate me. Mac writes some really good stuff and then I’ll view the comment boxes and it will have Nothing to do with the subject (i.e. this one)! Sorry, but I didn’t read anything about bridge OR the Pats in the topic. Anyways, thats just two cents from a casual reader. By the way, as a novice Brave fan I feel much more in-the-know after my 15 minutes a week on this page. Keep up the great work!

  21. Glad someone agrees. Jenny’s comments are always well written and are often very insightful. But sometimes the off-topic stuff is just too much. And when it happens in a Dale Murphy analysis thread, well, it is akin to pissing on sacred ground.

  22. Jenny go away!!! And take Peyton, Boston sports, the Orioles and drug testing in bridge(???) with you.

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