15 thoughts on “JC updates PrOPS”

  1. Thanks Mac. How could I not show some love for the Journal after I annoyed everyone with my numbers for a week?

    Also, I went ahead and sorted the numbers for the Braves, in case you are interested in just these guys. Link

  2. The Kelly Johnson line is not too shabby.

    Why only 2 years of data for the projections, by the way?

  3. Good question, Kyle. The main reason is convenience. The further you go back, the harder it is to get the numbers together for guys, especially when they switch teams. But also, one of the benefits of PrOPS is that you don’t have to go back far in time to get the numbers. One of the reasons more years are useful is that it smooths out variations that PrOPS already removes. I did try adding a third year, but it yielded more problems than I was gaining in answers. Plus, I only had data from 2002-2005 to make projections, which also limited the sample.

    Dammit, it’s frickin sleeting outside.

  4. High of 29 in DC today. Not pleasant.

    I didn’t think about the fact that PrOPS already smooths the data. That’s a good point. The one thing I would say is that in one year a player might have an atypical (for him) BIP distribution that should be regressed toward his career numbers. E.g. Ichiro hit a lot more fly balls last year than he usually does – so for next year, we wouldn’t say he would duplicate that, but he probably won’t go all the way back to 2004 numbers either – best guess is somewhere in the middle. I guess using two years of data accounts for this.

    Have you given any thought to a pitching projection model using this stuff, or is FIP and xFIP (the THT models) good enough for you?

  5. I’ve actually done a lot of work on pitching, and I’ve become even more convinced that DIPS is right. I think I believe more in it than Voros McCracken. You just can’t do much beyond look at a guy’s park, age, and DIPS. I have another article (with David Gassko) in the THT Annual that looks at pitcher and batter control over balls in play. It’s simply amazing how strong the relationship is. That’s what my SSPS projections are based off of, which I will update when the Lahman comes out.

  6. Not sure I really understand what goes into the metric, but it rates Andruw really high with a .297 average. Also has Marcus Giles and Betemit about equal. Trade Marcus?

  7. I promise to read your articles if my wife gives me THT annual for xmas as I asked her to do :)

  8. Your team is going to suck so bad this year!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! The mets are going to own you for many years to come.At least you wont have to watch your pathetic team choke again in the first round of the playoffs for a while, Cause your team wont even make wild card

    hahahahahahahahah—braves are finnished!!

  9. Cool Breez, as long as Randolph is still the manager we have nothing to worry about. You’ll be lucky to finish the season w/ 80 wins. Nice try though!

  10. Speaking of cold, my parents refuse to turn up the heat because of the rising cost of natural gas this winter. So I have a space heater in my room and my room is 85 degrees, but the rest of the house is in the low 60s and space heaters are a fire hazard and also blow fuses a lot. I fail to see the benefit of saving money over the inconvenience of continuously blowing fuses and possibly burning down the house, but that’s just me.

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