62 thoughts on “Well, maybe”

  1. Well, he is definitely giving the Braves every chance to sign him back as he already has a much better offer waiting for him.

    Considering we have seen Glavine, Maddux, Lopez, Sheffield, and Drew leaving the past few years, it wouldn’t feel right if Furcal ends up staying, haha!

  2. “There were more years and more money on the table from a few other teams,” Kinzer said

    Braves offer 5 years?

  3. I’m sure Hendry loves it that the Dodgers have jumped in to drive up the price. Then again, the Boys in Blue are staring down another year of Oscar Robles so maybe they are serious.

  4. I am rapidly getting tired of this Furcal thing. Either sign him or don’t and move on. The rest of our offseason hinges on this, at least in terms of money available if not in positions that need to be filled. Resolve this thing and let’s move and fix some of our other issues, like the bullpen.

    Wow, it’s only Dec. 1 and holiday stress is getting me already!

  5. Gordon –> Phillies, 3 years $18 million

    Kinda suprising that his contract is only worth marginally more than Farnsworth’s. I guess age was a factor, though.

  6. And according to atlantabraves.com, the Dodgers offered Furcal 3yrs/39 million. If Raffy stays, Bobby Cox needs to be cloned for use in future generations.

  7. Wait, but Bill Shanks said he was going to the Yanks at 3/17 with incentives.

    SHANKS SAID YANKEES AT 3/17!!!!

    Is the AP calling him a liar?

  8. Didn’t Shanks report that Farnsworth has SIGNED with the Yankees?

    Furcal at $39M/3yrs? I didn’t realize Tejada was playing for the Braves…

  9. I’m sorry. My mistake. Only Bill Shanks is calling someone a liar. A Bill Shanks post on his message boards, from when it was only WFAN reporting about the Rangers, not the AP:

    Then Mr. Farnsworth is going back on the word he gave the Yankees Tuesday afternoon.

    I don’t think WFAN’s information is true. If it is, then as I said, Farnsworth is going back on what he told the Yankees.

    No I did not miss a thing. . . .

    If you are a premium subscriber and were able to read the article, you will notice that I wrote that Farnsworth had agreed to the Yankees’ deal, which is much different than having signed a new contract.

    Both from this thread.

    Turns out Mac was right when he called Bill Shanks “no source at all”.

  10. Schuerholz stated he was told by Farnsworth’s agent that Kyle was signing with the Yankees. It was a little odd for JS to make that news public before papers were signed, which leads me to believe he did it for a reason. If some of you remember the Sheffield shenanigans…

    I’m really curious at to what is going on. Part of me is wondering if the Yankees aren’t stalling to try and get out of the draft picks. But I can’t believe JS wouldn’t offer Farnsworth arbitration. Maybe the Rangers stepped up with a last second offer.

    Strange things are afoot at the Circle K.

    But the bottom line is the Braves’ best reliever is gone and the Phillies and Mets have signed two good ones (albeit at ridiculous cost).

  11. This off-season has been one of the nuttiest I can remember in awhile. Apparently the Mets were about to trade Kris Benson to Baltimore for Jorge Julio tonight but Minaya backed out at the last minute because he wanted a high pitching prospect that the O’s didn’t want to give up. So it has been tabled for now. Mets getting Julio would be good for us, though; he sucks.

    Is it that there is more activity this year, that the contracts are more ridiculous, or that I’m just paying more attention? It’s too bad we don’t have an insider mole here; via other boards I have 3 Orioles contacts, a guy who used to drunk-dial Theo Epstein’s cell phone, John Henry, and Curt Schilling. When a rumor starts, their servers often crash. It makes for a lot of excitement. Of course, if the Braves would actually DO SOMETHING, it might be more exciting and I could actually discuss that instead of boring you all with my AL East teams…sorry, guys.

  12. How to be a journalist:

    1) Claim to report breaking news “first” behind a private wall.

    2) Get pissed when information leaks out. Refer to those who report similar information as taking info. (Isn’t that what news organizations do?)

    3) Despite other reports that indicate negotiations between NY and Farns are intense, not done, stick to your guns. Berate your own readers for expressing any reasonable doubt.

    4) Info turns out to be mistaken, then claim other sources that were previously considered to be stealing info as confirming sources.

    5) Say something incorrect about Moneyball. Repeat. (this step need not follow the others)

    It may turn out that Farnsworth does end up with the Yankees, but given the Gordon deal, I suspect he will get closer to $20 mil. if he goes. The thing is, claiming your going to walk away is a classic negotiating technique that has already been used by Brian Giles this season, not to mention anyone buying a car. The journalist in question should get credit for first identifying that negotiations were hearing up, or at least for starting the rumors since I and many others heard from reports of what was written behind that sacred wall. However, he was a little too anxious.

  13. I’d be willing to bet that the Braves offer Farnsworth arbitration in the next few days. It would be a smart move for 2 reasons –
    1. If he signs w/the Yankees, we get a first round pick out of it.
    2. If he accepts arbitration, he really won’t gain much. He’ll get a 1 year deal worth around $5-$6 million. That’s a lot of money to be sure, but the risk is small since it would only be a 1 year deal. The contract “rewarded” by an arbitrator would be based on his past statistics and how he compares to his peer group. Though we know he’s good, he’s only been good for half a year and that would work against him.
    I say offer him arbitration and see what happens.

  14. Agreed. The worst thing that should happen is that the Braves get a draft pick. One of the worst things about Sheffield’s departure was that we came away empty handed.

    It might be even better if JS offers arbitration and the Rangers sign Farnsworth, because we would get a better pick…

  15. I think the most likely scenario now is that we sign Todd Jones to a “hometown” 2-year deal at $4M per or so, and then see him gradually lose the job to Devine or Boyer over the summer. I just can’t see the Braves topping the suitors for Hoffman, the way the salaries are escalating.

  16. Nope. Picks in the first half of the first round are protected, so if he signs with the Rangers, we get the Texas second rounder and a sandwich. We get a better pick if his signs with the Yanks, I think.

    Also, if more than one type A or B is signed, the earlier pick goes to the better free agent. I’m not sure about the Elias ratings, but if the Mets, say, swoop in and sign Farns, their first round goes to the Phils, then we get the second rounder.

  17. I think that anything more than a 1 year deal for a guy like Todd Jones is excessive. He’s 38, he’s had arm problems in the past and last year’s results are far away from his “typical” year. I wouldn’t mind a 1 year deal w/a team option (or vesting based on saves, innings, etc). The first year he could be the primary closer and if there ends up being a second year, he could have some value as a mentor to Joey Devine (or whomever)and as a part time closer, 8th inning type of guy. Mutli year big money for someone like TJ scares me.

  18. Also, if Furcal goes to the Cubs, we would get the same right? We could really stockpile draft picks this year.

  19. All of these reliever deals scare me. These are the kinds of deals that will only really be worth it if everything goes right. They’re just too high. That Gordon deal is probably even worse than the Ryan deal.

    I thought this year, because he was such a good hitter for a catcher, that McCann was the most valuable of the “Baby Braves”. Looking at these deals, I was probably wrong. It might just be Boyer.

    And how good is last year’s first round draft strategy looking for the Braves right now? It’s like they predicted the reliever market would just get crazy and drafted a guy they could fast track up to the pen in half a season.

  20. Yeah, Kyle. Also, Franco’s a Type B, which has compensation like a Type A, but without the supplemental pick. We could get another strong pick if he signs somewhere else.

  21. We only get draft picks if we offer arbitration. We tried that when we thought Maddux was out and he took it. That’s why we we had to trade Millwood for Estrada.

    I think Schurholtz will be pretty reticent about offering arbitration unless the deal is a sure thing. And teams don’t take kindly to having their draft picks taken; offering arbitration is going to hurt Farnsworth’s negotiating position, making him more likley to accept it.

    That said, if the Yankees or Rangers seem pretty sure to sign him, there’s no reason not to offer arbitration. Leaking that he was already signed (even if he hasn’t signed the deal yet) to get Yankees fans excited about it and then offering arbitration (and thus making it difficult for NY to not go ahead and sign him for fear of angering the fan base) seems like it could be a pretty good tactic.

    That is, of course, assuming that any NYY fan cares about the Farnsworth signing. :-)

  22. IMHO, there is zero chance that we DON’T offer arbitration to Furcal/Farnsworth. What’s the downside — they decide not to take guaranteed multi-year deals? Maddux accepted arb because he was guaranteed about $15 million that way but couldn’t have signed a free agent deal for more than half of that per season. If Furcal got a 30% raise via arb, he’d still make less in one year than the average of the Cubs 5 year offer! Similarly, Farns doesn’t stand to make more than perhaps $5 million through arb. Both of those guys would be excellent values to the Braves if they accepted arb. Of course, if we’d offered to Sheffield, we would have picked up an extra draft pick or if he’d accepted, not had to trade a zillion players for JD Drew…

    Did we offer Drew arb last year? I don’t remember getting the Dodgers’ first rounder.

  23. Mike & Mike (especially the fat one) are complete idiots. I would give us one shot in three of retaining Furcy. If it happens, I say 4/39. If not us, I say the Cubs at 5/57.

  24. Kyle, JS did not offer arbitration to Drew. In fact, I don’t think JS will ever again offer arbitration to Scott Boras’ clients.

    4/39 for Furcal?! No way. Everybody takes discount to stay with the Braves, and this applies to Smoltz, Chipper, Andruw, and Hudson. Furcal should be no different. 4/34 max.

  25. And when you start assuming the certainty of a “hometown discount,” that is when the player believes he’s being taken for granted and low-balled. Let’s please not assume “Everybody takes discounts to stay with the Braves” because that simply is not true. Furcal wants as much money as he can get. That’s how business works. The Chipper Jones/Tom Brady types are the exception, not the rule.

  26. I dunno Jenny, there has been a steady line of folks that have stayed with the Braves and given hometown discounts. Must not be what Carlton teaches… :)

  27. Most of the guys who stay with the Braves seem to sign before they become free agents. If Furcal’s out there seeking other offers, I think it’s not likely that he will take a discount.

    Also, I really hope the Braves don’t sign Todd Jones. Unless they can pick up someone like Hoffman who has been consistently good, its better to go with the young guys already on the team.

  28. Did we allow any of said “steady line of folks” to reach free agency, though? In the book I’m now reading, the author points out that one of JS’s strong points is handing out contract extensions to keep good guys in town. I don’t think Chipper, Andruw, Smoltz, etc. have ever been free agents. And none of them are Rafael Furcal, either. He seems to be wired differently.

    I just have trouble with blanket generalizations like “Everybody takes discounts to stay with the Braves”. Blanket generalizations are never a good thing. I would hope that the front office has not made any such statements to Furcal because he would probably be offended.

  29. Why is everyone so afraid of signing Todd Jones? Is it that you don’t want to overpay or you just don’t want him on the team. He had an incredible season last year, still has good stuff, and probably would take a hometown discount. He isn’t my ‘dream’ closer, but I think he could still be effective for a couple more years and fill in the gaps until Devine or others are ready to close.

  30. I agree. We need some kind of veteran presence, and it’s not like signing Todd Jones to a two-year deal is going to preclude any of the younger guys out-pitching him and taking over the closers role. If he struggles, we’ll have young arms behind him to pick up the slack.

  31. Just saw a ticker on ESPN saying the Marlins traded Luis Castillo to the Twins for Travis Bowyer and Scott Tyler, two pitching prospects. The Mets tried to snag Castillo at the last minute, and it’s good they didn’t. And the Marlins didn’t get Liriano out of the deal, so even if these two develop it’s not as much as it could have been.

  32. Wow. When the Marlins conduct a fire sale, they do it fast and furious. This is amazing to watch. There will not be a single good player left on that team. Actually, is there currently?

  33. Will Carroll over at BP is reporting this, which I found both confusing and disturbing:

    “Other teams–the Braves and Cubs in particular–are hoping to deal for Julio Lugo as a replacement for Furcal, wherever he may roam. The Braves are said to be offering BP’s 2005 #1 prospect Andy Marte in return, which would be a nice deal both ways, considering that Marte has fallen as far as fourth on the organization’s depth chart at third base.”

    Beyond not understanding how this could possibly be a good deal for the Braves, I also wonder who on earth besides Chipper is ahead of Marte on the organization’s depth chart at third base. I can’t help thinking there’s nothing to this rumor, but I would be deeply disappointed if it were true.

  34. I think BP is intimating that Campbell has passed Marte. I don’t get it, but whatever, it’s BP.

    I also think Todd Jones would be a good signing at this point, depending on the price tag. We’re all jaded due to the Kolbian fiasco of this past year, but a veteran at the back of that bullpen would help the develpment of the kids immensely.

    Maddux took a large discount to sign with the Braves while he was a free agent. It’s been known to happen. Obviously Furcal really wants to return as he is exhausting every avenue to try to work something out with the Braves. Hopefully they can get it done.

  35. Campbell probably isn’t a 3b long term, from what I hear. He’s only a year younger than Andy but he played in the Appy League at the same age Andy was in AA. I can’t imagine we’d trade Marte for one year of a mediocrity like Julio Lugo, but who knows.

    As for the Marlins, Dontrelle and Cabrera are excellent, and Jeremy Hermida is a very good Rookie of the Year candidate. Jason Vargas and Scott Olsen should consolidate the good starts to their careers they had last year. Other than those guys, there isn’t too much talent left at the MLB level.

  36. Marte for Julio Lugo? I’d go berserk if that happened. Our top prospect for JULIO LUGO? Yes, I know there’s a logjam at third, but come on. There has to be a better plan.

  37. A few points, jenny:

    1) I think you’re misreading kc’s post. He’s not saying all players take hometown discounts from the Braves. He’s saying all players who stay with the Braves do so because they’ve been willing to take the discount. In other words, the Braves won’t offer more than 4/34 (as I read kc’s post), so if he signs with us, he’ll be taking a hometown discount.

    2) Smoltz was a free agent a few years ago. He chose closing with the Braves over starting (and more money) with the Yankees. One of the many examples of how great he is for this organization.

    3) No way we’d trade Marte for Lugo, at least not straight up. If we were to deal Marte, we’d have to get someone like Baez in addition to Lugo. Not that I’d be enthusiastic about even that deal, but still, there’s no way Schuerholz deals one of the game’s top prospects for a mediocre shortstop who’s already 30.

  38. I can’t reiterate enough that the Devil Rays are a bad, bad, bad team and acquiring multiple players from said team would probably not be a good thing (although I do like Carl Crawford).

  39. Three things you can count on in life:
    1)Death
    2)Taxes
    3)The Florida Marlins selling off their team every 4 years and getting some great taltent. Then developing said talent and selling it off for new younger taltent.

  40. Hey, I just thought of a great, original idea that nobody’s ever thought of before:
    Let’s get Juan Pierre!

  41. IF they go to Vegas they will be unstoppable at home. Imagine Giles and Furcal would be like little kids in a candy shop. They would miss the game the next day

  42. By the way, it looks like we’re all going to need to eat some crow.

    Headline of the above article: “Yankees, Farnsworth agree to 3-year, $17M contract”

    Curse you, Bill Shanks. You got me this time.

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