Game Thread: August 21, Padres at Braves

I hate the Padres. Marlins and Phillies have won, Natspos beat the Mets. If the Braves lose again the lead is only 2 1/2.

177 thoughts on “Game Thread: August 21, Padres at Braves”

  1. To add insult to injury, we’ll be forced to listen to Joe Morgan for 3 hours. I wish Jon Miller would “accidentally” whack him one during one of his long, irrelevant anecdotes so we could listen to play-by-play in peace.

  2. why in the world would texas waive soriano. i havent watched sportscenter in the past couple of days. did i miss something?

  3. I moved into my dorm and my internet is broken, so I haven’t been posting much. Few questions:
    1)Rookie, just out of college. Tie game. He does a nice job and gives you an inning. It is about 90 degrees with 90% humidity. It’s the 13th inning. Send him back out for another? Really? Intentional BB in the TOP of the 13th? Really? After he walks the bases loaded, leave him in? Really? I hate to second guess, but since I was crying the entire time it was happening I couldn’t first guess.
    2)Seriously, I’ll pay Jeff Francoeur to rub some of his luck on Kelly Johnson. Johnson has a LD% 5 points higher, but his BABIP is over 100 points lower. Hell, give some of it to Hans or Estrada too.
    3)For all the “Andruw=MVP” talk, Marcus Giles has the same number of Runs Created. With 20 less outs. And the same number of Win Shares. This isn’t to say that Marcus should be an MVP canidate(though he might deserve to be in the 8-10 range by seasons end), but rather that Andruw most certainly does not. Heck, Furcal isn’t that far behind Andruw in Net Win Shares(granted, most of it is from a flukey great fielding total).
    4)Having David Wright and Miguel Cabrera in the division for the next 5 or so years really, really scares me.

  4. John Kruk is having an All Fat Guys list on BBTN. I don’t know why I find this so funny, but there you have it.

    Interesting point about Marcus/Andruw, JP.

  5. Maybe it’s just my impression, but I feel like very few of the mvp voters are “statheads”. They tend to use a more traditional approach of “who helped a good team the most” rather than LD% or BABIP. It’s a valid argument, JP, but I just don’t think the voters will pay much attention to those numbers.

  6. JP, why do you consider Furcal’s defensive Win Shares to be a fluke? Are you saying there’s something wrong with the metric, making Furcal seem better than he is, or that Furcal is simply outperforming his established level of ability? Also, where can I find a good source for regularly updated advanced fielding metrics? Thanks in advance for any info.

    If Furcal is simply outperforming his usual defensive performance, this should not be an argument against his value to the team this season. Apart from any statistical evidence, it’s been clear to me that he’s having a fantastic year with the glove. My supposition is that he’s the most valuable defensive player in baseball this year, and I’d love to see some stats to either back this up or refute it.

  7. Lineups…

    San Diego:
    Roberts CF
    Randa 3b
    Klesko LF
    Giles RF
    Loretta 2b
    Nady 1b
    Jackson SS
    Ross C
    Lawrence P

    Atlanta:
    Furcal SS
    Giles 2b
    CJones 3b
    AJones CF
    LaRoche 1b
    Francouer RF
    Langerhans LF
    McCann C
    Smoltz P

  8. More fodder from the gossip mill: someone with an inside ESPN source said Clemens was busted for ‘roiding and they are just trying to figure out how to release it.

    And for those of you that say “That dumb Jenny, when will she ever learn and stop doing this?” the answer is “Never.”

  9. from ESPN Peter Gammons:

    3. Jeff Francoeur, OF, Braves “He’s the Braves’ answer to Vladimir Guerrero,” says one scout. “He swings at everything, but he hits the ball so hard it’s scary. He’s a monster, he runs well, he’s got a great arm, he’s fearless. [Kelly] Johnson, [Andy] Marte, [Brian] McCann … the Braves scouting department is unbelievable.” Everyone loves the 10 homers and 1.128 OPS in Francoeur’s first 33 games, but some see a red flag with zero walks and 23 strikeouts. “He’s going to be a very good player,” warns one GM, “but that kind of number usually catches up. Check back in. Ten years and we’ll see who’s better, Francoeur or [Florida OF] Jeremy Hermeda.” They’ll both probably be on the All-Star team. Incidentally, in the 2002 draft, Francoeur was considered unsignable, headed to Clemson as a safety/outfielder. Boston, which did not have a first-round pick, had a pre-draft deal cut with Francouer. Braves scouting director Roy Clark found out, did the same deal with the 23rd pick, and Red Sox scouting director David Chadd cut a deal with a left-handed pitcher named Jon Lester, who may well be in Boston’s rotation next season and may be, along with Liriano, one of the best left-handed prospects in the game.

  10. Looking at Andruw’s stats on THT, it seems like his BA/BIP is pretty low. Way lower than anyone else among the league leaders in RC, say. His LD% is not as high either, so I assume there’s some correlation there, but even to the naked eye it seems like he’s been abnormally unlucky when he puts the ball in play. Or am I misunderstanding this and maybe there’s another reason, like he’s slowed down too much due to his “voluptuous” body style?

    Jenny, I hope you are wrong about Clemens. Nothing surprises me anymore, but I have yet to become so cynical that nothing affects me either. It would be a shame, to me, for arguably the greatest pitcher of all-time to have done it with the help of the juice.

    As an aside though, is anyone else curious as to why, when we know everyone was taking greenies back in the day (thanks to Jim Bouton), nobody ever says much about that? I guess amphetamines and steroids are not exactly analagous, but unless I am mistaken aren’t emphetamines illegal?

  11. Oh, one other thing- is it just me or does it always seem like Joe Randa has this goofy-looking half-grin on his face? For some reason that always jumps out at me.

  12. I hope I am wrong as well, Rufino, and I would bet that there is about a 98% chance I am, so you shouldn’t even be listening to me, hopefully.

    This strike zone seems a little small. As long as it’s consistent…

  13. Joe Morgan: “I didn’t think the bullpen was that bad yesterday.”

    Gee, Joe, you think? Only 4 shutout innings! Not bad at all!

  14. Moyer only has an 80 MPH fastball. Glavine’s isn’t much faster. With good location and movement, a pitcher can have success with it.

    Andruw held Jackson? Nice.

  15. Padres donated $10,000 for their Little League team’s trip to Williamsport. That was nice of them.

  16. I don’t understand K-zone. How do you represent a three-dimentional strike zone with a two-dimentional image. Pitches with motion that only catch the front or back corner of the plate might be called wrong by something like that.

    I’d much rather have the overhead shot for pitches called off the plate.

  17. I always wondered where on the plate K-Zone focused. If it is right at the front of the place, like I imagine, then it would seem to miss some breaking balls like JoeyT says.

  18. Some more of that Gold Glove defense from LaRoche.

    Fortunately for his supporters, that won’t be scored an error.

  19. Come on, Joey. He was trying to catch a ball that hit the runner in the back. How would that be an error?

  20. And I think it hit Roberts’ arm as he was pumping it back, but I don’t think we’ll ever know.

  21. The Mondesi/Jordan thing “didn’t work out.” Sort of like the invasion of Russia “didn’t work out” for the Nazis.

  22. I can’t believe Brian Lawrence is no-hitting the Braves through three. He’s gone through the entire lineup without giving up a hit.

  23. dont anyone give me that “he hit it hard” crap. his job is to get the ball in the outfield to get a run home. laroche is god awful. andruw has been stinking up the joint with bases loaded. andruw’s productivity has went way down since chipper’s full-time return. do you think it is a psychological thing?

  24. LaRoche did hit it hard & when you play the game that’s what you try to do, so relax on that.

  25. I do believe that it is a mental thing with Andruw. He no longer has to “carry” the team persay and you can tell. Seems ridiculous but thats Andruw for ya.

  26. I think I speak for many when I say: Lets discuss a position that is not first base. Haha.

  27. Lets discuss a position that is not first base. Haha.

    Yeah, I’m feeling frisky. Let’s get to at least third base tonight.

  28. Jenny, those are averages, not totals. All sample size does is increase the accuracy of the number. As is, 100 ABs is usually sufficient to get a good idea of a player’s performance. If both sample sizes are sufficient, why do they have to be equal?

  29. He probably didn’t say anything there, in that little childhood story, that specifically -should- have made me think, “What an arrogant pr***!!” But I thought it all the same.

    F’in Joe Morgan…

  30. Because the margin of error at 100 ABs is much higher than that of 300. Figure a MOE of 10 points and they are back to even.

    I’ve always disliked Joe Morgan. Too many racial remarks over the years.

  31. Given all that, though, and that the numbers could shift based on sample size, is it stil statistically significant, if Julio’s could go down?

  32. Mike Clay, the point I was trying to make is that they are roughly equal against righties. And a lefty relief pitcher isn’t a near automatic out against Franco.

  33. Well that it what Margin of error is for. It is directly impacted by the sample size. If I get time then, I will figure it out. :)

  34. Yes, I am agreeing that those numbers show that they are hitting near equal vs. righties. And you are right, LaRoche cant hit lefties.
    I was simply explaining that .299 at 100 ABs and .281 at 300 ABs are very close in the statistic dept.

  35. Ok Mac. Since you seem to believe that Adam is so terrible. Who do you suppose should be playing first 5 of 6 days a week in his place? 47 year old Julio?

  36. Maybe 3 or 4 of those days could go to Julio?

    The way Bobby uses LaRoche, he never takes him out, even against lefties, prefering to use Julio as a pinch hitter. I would rather see a guy start who would be a tougher out, regardless of what the opposition puts on the mound in the late innings.

    LaRoche could still be used to spell Franco two or three days a week, and he would be hella valuable as lefty power off the bench. It would just be better to use Franco more.

  37. I just think they won’t use him so often, because he is 47. Health is obviously a concern at any age over 35ish. Plus, as we have noticed, Bobby and Co. like Adam and want to get him the ABs. It isnt like hes terrible. He is also a MUCH better hitter at home. Hah.

  38. If nothing else, they have to take LaRoche out of the 5 hole if he’s going to keep GIDP. Oh, and Smoltz got a whole run tonight. Sure, he had to drive it in himself. But that’s plenty of support.

  39. i dont get it. kolb is warming up. i remember bobby saying that he was going to give a chance to kolb to find his “stuff”, but we are 110+ games into the season, hasn’t that been long enough? why would you even consider bringing him in during this situation? I DONT GET IT! He continues to blow games and we continue to let him pitch. farnsworth, sosa, boyer are all very worthy righties. why not bring in one of them? i am going to be pissed if kolb comes in.

  40. “Julio Franco, with his next home run, will break the record for oldest player to hit a home run.
    It’s a record held by Pottsville’s John Picus Quinn, spitball pitcher who set the record in 1930 at age 46 years, 357 days.”

    I find that most interesting because i am from none other than Pottsville. Hah. And to think, the only thing I thought we were good for was the Maroons and Yuengling.

  41. 2 1/2; it’s all but inevitable now with Otsuka and Hoffman next.

    This is the fault of everyone who kept talking about who the Braves would rather face in postseason. Especially the people who said that we should be rooting for the Phillies to beat the Astros for the wild card.

    Oh, and LaRoche.

  42. Okay, I’m sorry: the color of the Pads road uniform pants is awful. Thank God they didn’t wear the whole thing. What is it supposed to be, gold? Not good on clothes. Dirt? Yuck.

  43. Yes, America’s oldest brewery can be seen from my front porch. Haha

    *blames LaRoche for hangovers*

  44. Morgan: “The Phillies have goo…decent pitching, and they have some offense. You have to like that.”

    The Phillies have one decent starter and a good bullpen. Morgan needs to stop saying things just to exercise his mouth.

  45. This game can be blamed on Ryan Langerhans’ parents. If he weren’t left-handed, he would have caught that double and the inning would never have happened. Left-handedness is genetic. Therefore it’s their fault.

    HE WAS OUT!

  46. Dumb Joe Morgan. What the heck is the point of Giles arguing? It won’t change the call and with his temper and mouth, he could get booted. And that’s of course just what we want, since we already used Orr.

  47. Nice shot of Marcus’s mom fixing her hair, camera guys. I guess this is their pet “human interest” story of the night.

  48. They should IBB Andruw and pitch to LaRoche and hope for one of those nice DPs. Not that I want them to do this…shhhhhh!

  49. This is my first time seeing Otsuka pitch that I can remember, but it seems like he is throwing a really straight overarm fastball, no real movement and at 90mph that’s a hittable pitch. Looked like all he did was groove them in for Chipper to pick one to crush…

  50. If Adam starts hitting fly balls and line drives again, I’ll lay off. (Though I still think that in 2006 Chipper should go to first.) It’s the groundouts that have been bugging me.

  51. Not to pour water on anyone, but if LaRoche drops a successful bunt, we get the exact same result.

  52. Yes, but a bunt has no chance of being a homerun. A sac fly does. It’s a better percentage play for a guy, like LaRoche, who has power.

    If a lefty’s pitching, LaRoche bunts. With a righty up there, it’s foolish to waste LaRoche’s bat.

  53. I say Reitsma. Bobby’s loyalty wins for one more night. Last chance though if it’s Reitsma. If he struggles he’s out.

  54. Joey T,

    I hear you, but you need one run there to win the game. The only reason they advanced both runners is because Roberts pulled a brainlock. If you get the bunt down you have an excellent chance to get 2 runs. Also, LaRoche is also a double-play machine, so I bunt there. At almost any other time of the game, I don’t. But I do there. Worked out, so who cares?

  55. I’m glad that both teams forgot who to play defense. Where is Tom Emanski when you need him??

  56. I still can’t believe that DP. Great pick by Furcal, fabulous toss by Marcus as his brother absolutely flattened him. Bet on the top play number?

  57. Are you insinuating that Emanski and McGriff are “together?” Now that’s good solid gossip!!

    Game’s on ESPN Monday night.

  58. You can have something from my box of books nobody will ever read, I guess. I’ll give you some examples if you like tomorrow. But I’m saving the CD set of L. Ron Hubbard on Evolution someone dumped on the library for a really special occasion.

  59. I just worked on a movie that shot for a couple days at the Scientology Celebrity Center in Hollywood. Creepy…

    Louis Farrakhan was staying across the hall with an entourage that was bigger than tonight’s crowd.

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