7 thoughts on “Good news”

  1. Did anyone read the 7/14 Prospectus Triple Play? In it a rumor is mentioned that the Braves were looking at Andruw for Corey Patterson! Has anyone else heard this? No way I make that trade. The only way I trade AJones is for an impact bat and Patterson does not qualify. In that triple play there is also a good synopsis on Andruw that pretty much mirrors what has been said on this blog.

  2. Johnny, I’d do that deal in a second. Patterson is already a decent player, and he’s only 24 years old. He’ll be better than Andruw on both sides of the ball by 2006. And we could probably sign him long-term for $6M/year. The trade might cost us a game or two this season. But it would pay off for the next six or seven years.

    I only wish the Cubs were dumb enough to actually do this.

  3. I only wish the Cubs were dumb enough to actually do this.

    Sigh. I guess the grass is always greener. I think most Cubs fans are saying: “I only wish the Braves were dumb enough to actually do this.”

    Patterson has a .302 career OBP and has already blown out one knee. Pass.

  4. He has a .302 career OBP because he was brought to the major leagues way too early. His walk rate has improved every season. And it will continue to improve, because–have I mentioned?–he’s only 24.

    Knees: so you think we shouldn’t re-sign J.D. Drew at any price? I’ll swallow the risk of Patterson losing another year to injury–and even the risk of having to move him to left field, in which case he’d be (at worst) the second coming of Jacque Jones. But I think those scenarios are about as likely as Patterson posting a .380 OBP some year: not. He’s still going to be better than Andruw.

    I don’t think I’m underrating Andruw. I do think that, because of his contract, he’s not a good value. I’d rather have a (marginally) inferior player who is a better value, so that I can spend my money on players with real value, like Giles and Furcal.

  5. Andy B, BP makes an interesting comment on AJones declining speed and a reference to added girth and thus a stagnation in production when he should be having his best years. The only reason I wouldn’t do the deal is that although Patterson is only 24 I’m just not sure how much upside the kid has. He isn’t going to be a slugging outfielder and although his OBP is improving its actually still lower than Andruw’s.
    However, your point is well taken, Patterson is younger and way way way cheaper and would give the Braves some tremendous future salary flexibilty.
    In my mind what the Braves should be doing is what they tried with the Chisox. Attempt to woo a team with Ajones’ possible upside. You know just a few more walks, teach him to stop trying to pull those low outside pitches and presto, a Griffey Jr. impact player! In return get a guy that is an expensive but proven bat that is either in his walk year or close to it. You know kind of like Ordonez or Larry (crystal) Walker. That way you have simultaneously improved your playoff chances and given yourself some flexibility.

  6. Luis Matos is like Patterson without the hype. I would rather get him since his perceived value is so much lower, though he has struggled so far this year. I would guess both Matos and Patterson have the same ceilings. By the way, Patterson turns 25 in less than a month (Matos is 26 in 3 months). Will he be where Andruw is now in two years? It’s ok to spend money on a good centerfielder. Chipper, Hampton, Byrd, and Smoltz’s contracts are hurting the Braves more right now, so I wouldn’t be looking everywhere to dump Andruw.

  7. Luis Matos is Charles Thomas with an injury history (and fewer walks). A fluke rookie season does not a prospect make. Neither of them has Patterson’s upside.

    Most players improve a lot between ages 25 and 27. Andruw didn’t, but there’s no reason to believe that Patterson won’t. (Or that Matos won’t, but Matos can be expected to improve on his career numbers, not on his fluke 2003 numbers.)

    Patterson’s upside is something like .300/.350/.500, with 40 doubles and 20 home runs. I’d expect two or three years of that between ’06 and ’08. .280/.330/.450 (30,15) would be a down year: that’s what he’s doing now, in his age-24 season (to be precise). That’s still solid. And relatively cheap.

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