Mets 10, Braves 8

When your starting pitcher gives up 6 in the first two innings, it’s an uphill battle. When your long man gives up 4 more in the next 5 innings, then it’s even harder. But all the damage was done by Julio Teheran and Josh Tomlin, and Anthony Swarzak and Luke Jackson covered the 2 2/3 without allowing a run. So while the bullpen ERA will take a hit because of Tomlin taking one for the team, the key members of the bullpen turned in good nights. That’s a positive.

Another positive is that the Braves hit six home runs by four different players. Matt Joyce contributed one to get it going, Josh Donaldson and Freddie Freeman both hit two, and Ronald Acuna Jr. hit one in the 9th. The team never quits and made a game of it.

Teheran has had 4 starts where he’s given up 6 ER or more. So when he doesn’t have it, he doesn’t have it. But it’s hard to fault the work he’s put in overall. He could be replacement level for the rest of the year, and he would still be worth his contract this year and worth picking up the option for next year. I said the same last year, but having this guy take the rubber 26 times this year adds stability to a team who badly needs it. He’s leading the league in walks, and his hits per 9 have gone up from last year, but he’s kept the ball in the park more than he did last year (1.3 HR/9 last year down to 1.0), and his walk and strike outs are identical to last year. That equates to a lower FIP than last year, and he’s outperformed his FIP in the 7 full seasons he’s pitched in the big leagues.

Oh well, we took 2 of 3. Now LA comes to town. Kenta Maeda vs. Mike Soroka tonight at 7:20.

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132 thoughts on “Mets 10, Braves 8”

  1. @74 from prior thread. Donny, I’m going to have to take a look at my own predictions now. 92-70 is starting to sound low. FG still has us at 93-69 after last night’s loss. I keep looking at stats and comparing to last year. The biggest difference I see in this team is that they are not prone to prolonged slumps (excepting the bullpen), especially on offense. That and the added depth of having guys like Riley and Duvall and all the long string of pitchers in the high minors (anyone notice that Gwinnett’s record mirrors Atlanta’s and is best in the IL) has allowed us to avoid any dreaded “team slumps”.

    Atlanta has produced only two 4 game losing streaks this year – none since June 1st (both involved AZ, LOL). Both were preceded and followed by winning more than one game in a row. We have only formally lost two season series so far – AZ and CIN – by one game each. Every month (except March) has been a winning month.

    This team is still a work in progress even though it’s progressing pretty quickly. Last year we relied on streaks of outstanding performance to win a division. This year we are experiencing consistent performances over the entire year. Next, hopefully, we will be able to have a team that will be consistently outstanding without the remaining flaws (read: bullpen).

    Our first test was a streaking Mets team coming in at their best. That test was passed. Next is the Dodgers. This test is somewhat bigger. Pass this test and the rest of the season will take care of itself.

  2. Yeah, I think 92 wins is probably low, especially if the team can get Dansby back. I’ve been thinking they could win 96-98 games, but the injuries to Neck and Swanson plus the bullpen struggles have been tough. All that matters is getting healthy, though.

  3. With regards to Julio. He has been so good this year that he has to be considered for starts in the playoffs. If he is Good Julio, then his performance would be too good to miss. If he is Bad Julio then Snitker has to have a very short leash. Last night was easily about 2 batters or two runs too long (should have been pulled after the 4-pitch walk to Panik). Maybe the leash could have been longer if the Braves had scored in the 1st. Tomlin would certainly not have walked in a run.

    Even the first inning, Julio had two strikes on 5/7 hitters. And 2/3 to begin the 2nd. But it was obvious after the Rosario triple and the Panik walk that Julio’s night was over.

    In the playoffs, it might be best to cuff Julio with the next night’s starter. If Bad Julio shows up, bring in the next night’s starter. I think it’d be preferable to use Folty as the cuff to provide a contrast in styles (soft tosser vs. hard thrower). Worst case is they both do their “bad” imitation and you lose one game big. Our base will have to be Soroka, Keuchel, and Fried. Also, the Dodgers’ OPS against lefties is about 90 points lower.

  4. I actually think he’d make a good long-reliever/tandem starter in the playoffs. Julio gives you 5 to 6 innings most nights of quality pitching, he’s just not one to go deep into games anymore.

  5. For his career that’s true and even this year, his 1st inning OPS is higher than innings 2-4 (though how much of that has to do with facing the top of the lineup). His ERA (even with yesterday’s 4 runs) is only 2.77 in the first then 2.13, 3.24, 2.96, 7.89!!, 3.38, 6.75

    OPS by inning:
    .737
    .621
    .657
    .634
    .831
    .799
    1.091

  6. I just can’t get behind having Julio as a playoff starter. His ERA against teams with a WP >.500 is 4.95. That’s worse by a noticeably wide margin when compared to Fried (3.52), Keuchel (4.15), and of course Soroka (2.62).

  7. Mark Melancon BABIP = .526
    Chris Martin BABIP = .467
    Shane Greene BABIP = .579

    That is outrageously unlucky. Maybe some of that is due to poor pitching, but still. In particular, Melancon’s FIP = .079 and xFIP = 1.16. By far and away the best on the team. The closest is Luke on xFIP and Soroka on FIP.

  8. @12 No doubt that Soroka, Keuchel, and Fried are our best starters and primaries for the playoffs. If you need a 4th starter, you could not do much better than Teheran with Folty as a cuff. Especially if Good Julio shows up.

  9. Thank you for the recap, Rob.

    I agree with Roger about the playoff rotation but would reorder to Soroka, Fried, then Keuchel. The two kids deserve the extra starts should they materialize.

  10. @13 Do they have a split that is broken up by catcher? I’d like to see the BABIP’s between Flowers and McCann.

  11. I’m really hoping Folty can revitalize so we don’t have to see how Teheran does in the playoffs.

    As for making room for Webb, you’re definitely not going to DFA your shutdown closer (Blevins), so you’d have to just DFA Tomlin. If you can get 0.5 bWAR out of a guy you picked up in Spring Training, you have to just count your blessings and move on.

    Unless of course, someone gets “injured” or you wait until September.

  12. Anybody here familiar on the scouting report on Phillip Pfeiffer? He has all of a sudden flipped a switch and is striking out lots of hitters. Also, went from relief to starting and stats got better.

    If the Dodgers are the opponent, I think you go Fried, Keuchel, Soroka. The Dodgers are MUCH better against righthanders. And line up a righthander (Sliderman?) ready to go asap when the lefties start and Newcombe when Soroka starts.
    That busts up that “semi platoon” thing the Dodgers do.

  13. Dang.

  14. Well, no more bubble bobble at SS. These guys aren’t playing around with the Dodgers in town.

  15. I assume Bryce is just up as a potential long man since Tomlin got spent yesterday, but I’d really like to see him get a couple of high leverage outings.

    If Johan and Duvall have already been optioned, I assume Adeiny will start tonight at SS. I don’t mind the move, really just need a sure handed fill in and he can do that.

  16. Looking a little closer at Hech’s defense, he has been horrible this year by UZR at SS but that’s in 69 innings (-17.8 compared to +4.1 for Johan). So not sure how much of an upgrade he will be.

    Edit: He had a positive 4.3 last year in 717 innings so let’s go with that.

  17. I don’t usually question players effort or desire and I don’t think that’s the case with Camargo. Offensively I have always had some questions about him, but I thought he was solid defensively. It just looks like he’s not in the game mentally. I think we’ll need him for the playoffs. Hope he gets straightened out in the next few weeks.

  18. I’d imagine Culby gets the lion’s share of the starts at SS in Dansby’s absence, no… ?

    If the opposing team has a really strong LHP on the bump, maybe Hech picks up some starts with Culby moving to the OF?

  19. Alex Anthopoulos ain’t messing around. Team has a problem, he acts. I admire that.

    Now, going back to his days in Toronto, he’s always been FAR better at building an offense than a pitching staff. So we’ll see how well he can patch the remaining holes. But even if Adeiny only lasts a couple weeks in a Braves uniform, he can’t possibly be a worse hitter than Paul Janish.

  20. I fear that last year was the outlier and his minor league numbers are more of a true indicator of who Camargo is. I suspect that AA feared this as well and signed Donaldson in response.

  21. 28 — I’m thinking that Culberson and Joyce will be platooning in the OF and that Hechavarría will be playing most of the time at SS. I could be wrong.

  22. Won’t the Braves have to make a move on the 40 man for Hechavarría? Ortega took the last opening on the 40 man roster I think.

    They could move Dayton to the 60 day IL I guess since he doesn’t seem to be close to returning.

  23. Just an FYI about tonight’s recap. Tomorrow I will be moving the Littlest Seat Painter into her freshman dorm at UNC-Charlotte around noon. I will TRY to get a recap out tonight, but I make no promises to the quality of the aforementioned recap.

  24. Seat Painter
    has she promised that college won’t taint her?
    mine did, at William and Mary
    results since then have been positively scary.

    ——————–

    Alex…shame, shame on you re Julio and your fragile trust in a post season start! There has been so much more good than bad from him this summer. In fact it’s possible he knew he had only one more horror in him and decided to get it out of his system early in a series we had already won.
    And from his perspective – maybe not yours – a play off start holds no terrors, he’s been around.

  25. @30 I believe you could be right there. The Donaldson signing was such a great move, too. Had they rolled with Camargo at 3B FT this season, this club is probably sitting in 3rd place with the way he’s played.

    It just looks more and more like Camargo ran into a good season out of nowhere last season similar to the way Adonis Garcia did, but the clock struck midnight this year.

  26. Some revisionist history seems to be around re Camargo…Chipper was the first to pick him out at ST- crack of the bat did it. His 2 years up here were enough for him to be termed a valuable and flexible all rounder – played a great third base, hit the ball hard.

    The only thing that went wrong was JD – as it turned out he did not have the ability to handle it. What we must do now is rehab him the first 3 months of next year – on no account must he be discarded or traded away cheaply. He is still a valuable talent.

  27. 40 —

    1. Pretty sure that was Acuña was the guy Chipper talked about the crack of the bat being loud.
    2. I know you never bother to look at statistics to support anything you say, but Camargo had a career .705 OPS in 2,168 minor league plate appearances. This isn’t “revisionist history” — it’s quite possible he’s just not that good of a hitter.

  28. There was a post by Mac awhile back, pregame post about the Phillies. Very funny. Does anyone know how to findit? One of the lines was something like “the Philadelphia Sound was the sound they make as they leave for New York”

  29. Jonathan, if you’re still looking things up on your database (and if nobody has already checked this), how common is it for teams to hit 6 HR in a 9-inning game and lose? Seems like it might happen a few times a decade. Doubt it happened in the 1960s.

  30. I think we just stick Camargo in LF. AA said he was sending him to AAA to get at bats. Well, here they are.

  31. I don’t care for this 3 man bench. You can’t really PH now because you can’t burn your only reserve catcher or only position player.

  32. @62 same. To have a rough start, rehab, then come back and really save the team’s bacon, then have this happen? Woof.

  33. 60 — I think it’s in the “putative humor” category.

    Have to imagine Duvall will be coming back tomorrow. Depending on the severity of the quad injury, it’s probably a 4-6 week recovery for Ender.

  34. Debating between Duvall and Camargo is depressing, like a death row inmate given his choice of the electric chair or firing squad.

  35. Duvall hasn’t been that bad. He’s been a 0.4 rWAR player since he came up. Doesn’t seem like much, but that’s solid over a 3 week span.

  36. This booth crew is great. Having Smoltzie and Chipper in keeps Chip a little quieter. Smoltz is a great talker, too. I love his color for Fox.

  37. Worst case, if the Braves have to 60 day DL Ender, anyone think they bring someone in from outside the org? Duvall and Camargo are both cold, so with a hot hitting Ender out the order starts to look a little thin at the bottom.

  38. @71 I love the booth right now too. Chipper’s always a good listen. Feel like he could call a game, if he wanted.

  39. 72 — I don’t know man. Someone said Billy Hamilton got DFA’ed. He brings great speed, defense, and stolen base ability but is an atrocious hitter.

  40. I hope the guys keep scoring on Maeda because Soroka is not gonna pitch a shutout. He’s gonna give up some runs tonight. Hope he can keep it down but he’s not gonna have many clean innings.

  41. 73 — Fair point, but he was still bringing good defense and is more of a long ball threat than Camargo.

  42. @75 Yeah, Hamilton’s biggest issue is you can’t steal 1st. I was thinking maybe Gattis for a bench bat and emergency catcher/OF?

  43. 78 — I doubt it. He can’t really play the field anymore. He appeared in 2 games as a catcher for 4 innings and DH’ed the rest of the time. And isn’t in game shape. Would be interesting, but his chance would be in the AL.

  44. I assume Duvall rather than Camargo will be called up tomorrow because he can play center if necessary.

    But it could be Pache and Duvall with Wilson going back down.

  45. @87 Pache isn’t on the 40 man. As much as I’d love to see he or Waters up for the promise of their upside, I don’t see it happening. They haven’t been scorching AAA and AA isn’t going to start their clocks early unless he has no other option.

  46. M-m-m-mike Soroka!!! Woo hoo. He is doing it. Regardless of how this game ends he has certainly proven he needs to start Game 1 in any playoff series.

  47. 85 — I think he’s talking about the “history” and “description” of Philadelphia post that is a parody. I’m pretty sure that’s in the putative humor category and written around 09-10 if that’s the correct post I think he is talking about. It also doubled as a game thread.

  48. My god, it’s october 2018 all over again.

    Does every Braves pitcher just turn into Eric Milton when Muncy is at bat?

  49. @96 I kinda wondered about Blevins. But Blevins’ track record against the Dodgers is awful.

    You know who was really effective against the Dodgers last year – AJ Minter. when the playoffs come sneaking around AJ is going to have to be a part of it.

  50. You know what, I think this game might have broken me.

    Just give the division to the Nats, the braves are never winning a playoff series again.

  51. This series means nothing even if we get swept, which is likely. Tons more games against our division rivals.

  52. Not addressing the bullpen in the winter is bigger an bigger.
    Especially since we also didn’t get a bat at the deadline.

    But we are going to win the Governor’s Cup

  53. Maybe we can send the other 3 bench guys down for a 12 man pen? Why would we need bench guys? Nobody ever gets hurt…

  54. I guess it must be terrible to be the second best team in the NL. What is wrong with you people?

    Did anyone really think 3 runs was going to be enough to win this game? It was only because of an outstanding performance by Soroka that we even considered it.

    As I mentioned in an earlier post, we haven’t had many losing streaks and won’t have many more. Even if we lose all three to the Dodgers, it will still be a 4-game losing streak and the first one since we played the Dodgers in LA.

    I know everyone here wants to beat the Dodgers but it is not the end of the world.

  55. There’s still plenty of time to sort things out. I’d rather have this happen now rather than later. They’ll find their balance again.

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